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Post-Lottery Analysis: the Implications
by: Jonathan Givony - President
May 21, 2008
With the order of one of the draft now set in stone, we take a look at the implications of the lottery drawing on each of the top 10 picks and what they might mean for the stock of various players in the draft. We also think about which players teams might consider at each individual draft slot.


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Our pick for each individual team is highlighted in bold.

#1- Chicago Bulls

Will Consider: Michael Beasley , Derrick Rose

Chicago rejuvenates their entire organization by lucking into the top pick in this year’s draft, and thus the best possible solution for their scoring woes in the post. While they will work out and certainly give Derrick Rose a long hard look, it makes way too much sense to draft Beasley and let him fit right in at the biggest hole in their lineup—the 4. This pick fixes a lot of things for Chicago’s players, front office, local media and fan-base—things don’t look all that bad any more all of a sudden.

Chicago’s pick (then #9) was once on the trading block—in exchange for the right veteran to compliment their rapidly maturing high draft picks. The Bulls are in win-now mode and supposedly didn’t have the patience to wait for a player to develop—do they still feel the same now that they striking gold in the lottery? They will likely field some very intriguing trade offers….Sam Smith would have had a field day if he was still in the mix.

#2- Miami Heat

Will Consider: Derrick Rose

A huge sigh of relief from Miami’s front office, which desperately needed either of the top picks to help get the franchise back on track. Although it’s always nice to have your pick of the litter, in certain respects it’s advantageous to have the decision made for you—either Beasley or Rose would be just fine, and no one will question you taking the one that “falls” to there. Considering that Chicago will likely take Beasley, Derrick Rose (who almost certainly would have been Miami’s choice had they received the#1 overall pick) will look great next to Dwyane Wade in the Heat’s backcourt, allowing him to move off the ball and shoulder less offensive responsibilities, while also upgrading their perimeter defense significantly.

If Chicago trades the #1 pick or unexpectedly takes Rose, Miami will be more than happy to “make due” with Michael Beasley.

#3- Minnesota Timberwolves

Will Consider: Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo

Although they will probably be disappointed not to move into the top two, Minnesota should still be pleased not to have moved down at least , and to have their pick of the consolation prizes of the draft lottery. Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo will likely be their short-list of players to choose from, and the ultimate choice might end up coming down to positional needs rather than the best player available.

Minnesota’s pick will tell us two key things about how they feel about their current roster. One, do the Timberwolves still consider Randy Foye the cornerstone he was meant to be when they traded Brandon Roy’s draft rights and selected him 7th overall just two years ago? And two, do they view Al Jefferson as more of a power forward in their lineup, thus forcing them to find a center, read: Brook Lopez? Minnesota’s head coach Randy Wittman already showed their hand to a certain extent by stating at the conclusion of the season that they would like to move Jefferson to the 4, something that may hurt their leverage in trade scenarios dealing with teams looking to move up to the #3 pick.

#4- Seattle Supersonics

Will Consider: Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph

The Supersonics took a bigger hit than anyone in the lottery, falling two spots from #2 to #4 overall, which is a pretty decent setback for a franchise that needs about as much help as it can get at this point considering the turmoil it’s going through with the city of Seattle.

Considering their weakness at the guard spot, it seems like O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless would be the frontrunners here. This is a decision that likely won’t be decided for quite some time, as there is a lot of information that needs to be processed—particularly about the direction the team sees itself heading, the culture of the organization and how each player fits in, whether or not the roster needs more of a 1/2 at the moment or a 2/1, and how each of those players fit in with the core of Kevin Durant and Jeff Green.

Don’t be surprised to see Sam Presti hold his cards very close to the vest and work out a large range of players for this pick, as well as diligently and discreetly explore what kind of value it might have on the open market at this point.

Right now, we look at Bayless as the frontrunner, but this could really go either way.

#5-Memphis Grizzlies

Will Consider: Kevin Love, O.J. Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph

Memphis is in a bit of a tough spot here, as they really needed to be in a position to draft a sure-fire big man they can plug into their system right away and produce from day one, i.e. Michael Beasley or Brook Lopez. Their roster is extremely perimeter heavy at the 1-4 positions. Falling to #5 means they will need to heavily consider reaching a bit for Kevin Love here, as they are seemingly set at the guard positions (possibly ruling out Mayo) and likely have very little need for a player like Gallinari, Gordon or Randolph.

Trading the pick might be an option as well, but taking on a contract of a player who will need to be resigned or extended sooner might not be an option for a franchise that seems completely unwilling to spend money to improve itself at this point.

Things are pretty wide open at this pick.

#6- New York Knicks

Will Consider: O.J. Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, D.J. Augustin

Donnie Walsh and the Knicks need to get their new era off to a great start by hitting a homerun with this pick, as their assets are extremely limited otherwise.

If O.J. Mayo is on the board, it’s hard to see New York passing him up. He fills a need, has the most value here of any player, and also is likely the most ready player around to deal with the incredible amount of scrutiny that comes along with playing in the media capital of the world.

Mike D’Antoni will also give consideration to fellow Italian Danilo Gallinari, although it’s not quite clear that this is the direction the franchise should head in considering how much they are lacking in other departments.

#7- Los Angeles Clippers

Will Consider: Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, Anthony Randolph, Danilo Gallinari, DeAndre Jordan

The Clippers need a point guard, meaning that they could realistically reach a bit up the board and snag sophomore D.J. Augustin, or they could opt for a player with slightly more value at that pick, and look to take someone who fills one of their many other serious needs. Eric Gordon may fit that mold, especially if the team feels like they will be losing Corey Maggette this summer. Gordon would actually be a fantastic compliment for a big point guard like Shaun Livingston who can defend shooting guards and allow Gordon to focus more on being a scorer.

#8- Milwaukee Bucks

Will Consider: Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, D.J. Augustin, DeAndre Jordan, Donte Greene

Milwaukee has a lot of talent at virtually every position on their roster except small forward at this point, making that clearly their biggest need in this draft. Rather than making sweeping personnel changes, they decided to change the head coach and general manager, opting to bring in a new culture to the organization, one with more of an emphasis on accountability and mental toughness, drawing from fellow Eastern conference foes Detroit and Chicago to help accomplish that.

The best small forward on the board here is clearly Danilo Gallinari, and in this particular projection, he falls right into their lap, making this a no brainer decision considering the versatility, unselfishness and high-level experience he brings to the table. Donte Greene will get a serious look too, although he might not have as much value here.

#9- Charlotte Bobcats

Will Consider: Anthony Randolph, DeAndre Jordan, D.J. Augustin, Donte Greene, Russell Westbrook, Kosta Koufos

Before deciding who to draft, the Bobcats first of all need to decide what direction their organization is heading in after the hiring of Larry Brown. The roster seems best suited to run, but Larry Brown has always been known as a defensive oriented, grind it out type, making it interesting to see how the pieces they have will fit into their overall scheme. Can Raymond Felton play the type of half-court basketball that Brown demands? And if not, does D.J. Augustin make more sense here? Is Emeka Okafor better suited as a PF or a C in today’s basketball, and with that in mind do you draft someone to compliment him at either position, like Kosta Koufos or Anthony Randolph? Is it just better off to go with best player available and decide later?

#10- New Jersey Nets

Will Consider: DeAndre Jordan, Russell Westbrook, Donte Greene, Kosta Koufos, Joe Alexander

The Nets are caught somewhere in the middle between rebuilding and mediocrity, having been aided greatly by the terrific trade they pulled off parlaying an aging Jason Kidd for a true cornerstone in Devin Harris and a few first round picks to boot. They are still in the midst of building their frontcourt, though, but unfortunately seem to be caught in a portion of the draft with very little in the ways of proven contributors, especially considering the importance their coach puts on the defensive end of the ball. DeAndre Jordan seems like a poor fit considering the way Lawrence Frank wants to play, but seems to be most talented big man on the board at this point. Kosta Koufos might be a bit high at this point, but is also worthy of being considered. If the Nets look outside of the big man slots, they’ll find some interesting prospects as well that could help them down the road.
 


Feedback for this article may be sent to jonathan@draftexpress.com .

 

Michael Beasley
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 239 lbs.
Birthday: 01/09/1989
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Notre Dame Prep
Previous Team: Kansas State , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #2 in 2008 Draft
by the Heat
Positions:
Current: PF,
NBA: PF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
7.9 Pts, 3.1 Rebs, 0.7 Asts


Derrick Rose
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 196 lbs.
Birthday: 10/01/1988
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Simeon Vocational
Previous Team: Memphis , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #1 in 2008 Draft
by the Bulls
Positions:
Current: PG,
NBA: PG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
15.9 Pts, 3.2 Rebs, 4.3 Asts


Sam Smith
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 230 lbs.
Birthday: 01/27/1944
70 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Hazard
Previous Team: , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 3, Pick #9 in 1967 Draft
by the Royals
Positions:
Current: G,
NBA: G,
Possible: G
Quick Stats:
8.6 Pts, 1.8 Rebs, 1.4 Asts


Dwyane Wade
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 212 lbs.
Birthday: 01/17/1982
32 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Richards
Previous Team: Marquette , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2003 Draft
by the Heat
Positions:
Current: G,
NBA: PG/SG,
Possible: G
Quick Stats:
19.0 Pts, 4.5 Rebs, 4.7 Asts


Brook Lopez
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 7' 0"
Weight: 256 lbs.
Birthday: 04/01/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: San Joaquin Memorial
Previous Team: Stanford , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #10 in 2008 Draft
by the Nets
Positions:
Current: C,
NBA: PF/C,
Possible: C
Quick Stats:
20.7 Pts, 6.0 Rebs, 0.9 Asts


Jerryd Bayless
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 204 lbs.
Birthday: 08/20/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: St. Mary
Previous Team: Arizona , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #11 in 2008 Draft
by the Pacers
Positions:
Current: PG/SG,
NBA: PG/SG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
8.1 Pts, 1.9 Rebs, 2.1 Asts


O.J. Mayo
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 200 lbs.
Birthday: 11/05/1987
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Huntington
Previous Team: USC , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #3 in 2008 Draft
by the Timberwolves
Positions:
Current: PG/SG,
NBA: PG/SG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
11.7 Pts, 2.4 Rebs, 2.2 Asts


Randy Foye
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 212 lbs.
Birthday: 09/24/1983
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Newark East Side
Previous Team: Villanova , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #7 in 2006 Draft
by the Trailblazers
Positions:
Current: SG,
NBA: PG/SG,
Possible: SG
Quick Stats:
13.2 Pts, 2.9 Rebs, 3.6 Asts


Brandon Roy
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 6"
Weight: 207 lbs.
Birthday: 07/23/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Garfield
Previous Team: Washington , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #6 in 2006 Draft
by the Timberwolves
Positions:
Current: SG,
NBA: SG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
5.8 Pts, 2.8 Rebs, 4.6 Asts


Al Jefferson
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 263 lbs.
Birthday: 01/04/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Prentiss
Previous Team: , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #15 in 2004 Draft
by the Celtics
Positions:
Current: F,
NBA: PF/C,
Possible: F
Quick Stats:
9.0 Pts, 8.0 Rebs, 1.0 Asts


Kevin Love
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 255 lbs.
Birthday: 09/07/1988
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Lake Oswego
Previous Team: UCLA , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2008 Draft
by the Grizzlies
Positions:
Current: PF,
NBA: PF,
Possible: PF/C
Quick Stats:
17.0 Pts, 7.9 Rebs, 2.1 Asts


Eric Gordon
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 222 lbs.
Birthday: 12/25/1988
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Indianapolis North Central
Previous Team: Indiana , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #7 in 2008 Draft
by the Clippers
Positions:
Current: SG,
NBA: SG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
15.4 Pts, 2.6 Rebs, 3.2 Asts


Danilo Gallinari
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 209 lbs.
Birthday: 08/08/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School:
Previous Team: Milano , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #6 in 2008 Draft
by the Knicks
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
Pts, Rebs, Asts


Anthony Randolph
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 197 lbs.
Birthday: 07/15/1989
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Woodrow Wilson
Previous Team: LSU , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #14 in 2008 Draft
by the Warriors
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
4.8 Pts, 2.8 Rebs, 0.7 Asts


Kevin Durant
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Birthday: 09/29/1988
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Montrose Christian
Previous Team: Texas , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #2 in 2007 Draft
by the SuperSonics
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: PF
Quick Stats:
32.0 Pts, 7.4 Rebs, 5.5 Asts


Jeff Green
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 228 lbs.
Birthday: 08/28/1986
27 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Hyattsville Northwestern
Previous Team: Georgetown , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2007 Draft
by the Celtics
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
16.9 Pts, 4.6 Rebs, 1.7 Asts


DeAndre Jordan
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 11"
Weight: 250 lbs.
Birthday: 07/21/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Christian Life Center Academy
Previous Team: Texas A&M , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 2, Pick #5 in 2008 Draft
by the Clippers
Positions:
Current: C,
NBA: C,
Possible: C
Quick Stats:
10.4 Pts, 13.6 Rebs, 0.9 Asts


D.J. Augustin
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 172 lbs.
Birthday: 11/10/1987
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Brother Martin
Previous Team: Texas , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #9 in 2008 Draft
by the Bobcats
Positions:
Current: PG,
NBA: PG,
Possible: PG
Quick Stats:
14.9 Pts, 2.1 Rebs, 5.0 Asts


Corey Maggette
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 6"
Weight: 218 lbs.
Birthday: 11/12/1979
34 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Fenwick
Previous Team: Duke , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #13 in 1999 Draft
by the Supersonics
Positions:
Current: SG/SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SG/SF
Quick Stats:
6.5 Pts, 3.5 Rebs, 2.0 Asts


Shaun Livingston
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 186 lbs.
Birthday: 09/11/1985
28 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Peoria Central
Previous Team: , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #4 in 2004 Draft
by the Clippers
Positions:
Current: PG,
NBA: PG,
Possible: PG
Quick Stats:
8.3 Pts, 3.2 Rebs, 3.2 Asts


Donte Greene
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 221 lbs.
Birthday: 02/21/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Towson Catholic
Previous Team: Syracuse , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #28 in 2008 Draft
by the Grizzlies
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
9.4 Pts, 3.6 Rebs, 2.8 Asts


Russell Westbrook
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 192 lbs.
Birthday: 11/12/1988
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Leuzinger
Previous Team: UCLA , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #4 in 2008 Draft
by the Supersonics
Positions:
Current: PG/SG,
NBA: PG/SG,
Possible: PG/SG
Quick Stats:
21.8 Pts, 5.7 Rebs, 6.9 Asts


Kosta Koufos
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 7' 1"
Weight: 245 lbs.
Birthday: 02/24/1989
25 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Glen Oak
Previous Team: Ohio State , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #23 in 2008 Draft
by the Jazz
Positions:
Current: C,
NBA: C,
Possible: PF/C
Quick Stats:
6.4 Pts, 5.2 Rebs, 0.5 Asts


Larry Brown
Full Profile
Physicals
Height: 5' 9"
Weight: 160 lbs.
Birthday: 09/14/1940
73 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Long Beach
Previous Team: , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 7, Pick #2 in 1963 Draft
by the Bullets
Positions:
Current: G,
NBA: G,
Possible: G


Raymond Felton
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 0"
Weight: 199 lbs.
Birthday: 06/26/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Latta
Previous Team: North Carolina , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2005 Draft
by the Bobcats
Positions:
Current: PG,
NBA: PG,
Possible: PG
Quick Stats:
9.7 Pts, 3.0 Rebs, 5.7 Asts


Emeka Okafor
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 257 lbs.
Birthday: 09/28/1982
31 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Bellaire
Previous Team: , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #2 in 2004 Draft
by the Bobcats
Positions:
Current: F,
NBA: PF/C,
Possible: F
Quick Stats:
Pts, Rebs, Asts


Joe Alexander
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 220 lbs.
Birthday: 12/26/1986
27 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Linganore
Previous Team: West Virginia , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #8 in 2008 Draft
by the Bucks
Positions:
Current: PF,
NBA: PF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
12.8 Pts, 6.5 Rebs, 1.1 Asts


Jason Kidd
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Birthday: 03/23/1973
41 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Notre Dame St. Joseph
Previous Team: California , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #2 in 1994 Draft
by the Mavericks
Positions:
Current: G,
NBA: PG,
Possible: G
Quick Stats:
4.3 Pts, 3.3 Rebs, 3.3 Asts


Devin Harris
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 170 lbs.
Birthday: 02/27/1983
31 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Wauwatosa East
Previous Team: Wisconsin , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2004 Draft
by the Wizards
Positions:
Current: G,
NBA: PG,
Possible: G
Quick Stats:
7.9 Pts, 2.1 Rebs, 4.5 Asts


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