Menu

BracketExpress Projections for 3/3

BracketExpress Projections for 3/3
Mar 03, 2006, 03:35 pm
Drew Barnette and BracketExpress continue to monitor the nitty gritty of the NCAA with the most comprehensive and accurate NCAA Tournament Bracket projections on the internet.

Barnette continues to monitor the scores, RPI and which 65 teams will end up in the NCAA tournament in March with his latest weekly projections. Also included are the notes on the bracket with a breakdown of the resumes of the 10 most likely bubble teams.

You can read Drew's daily look at the happenings of the NCAA and follow his weekly bracket projections on the BracketExpress section of the site.

The Bracket:

1172

1173


NOTES ON THE BRACKET

-Let me reiterate that this is not a prediction of what the committee will do on Selection Sunday, but rather a checkpoint for what I think the bracket would look like if today were Selection Sunday.

-All The teams are selected and seeded using the same criteria the selection committee will use.


AUTOMATIC BIDS are given to all 31 conference champions regardless of how good or bad the league is. The teams projected as conference champions are either in first place in their league, or tied for it via the loss column. Those teams are Duke, Connecticut, Ohio State, Texas, Memphis, Gonzaga, LSU, UCLA, George Washington, Wichita State, Nevada, George Mason, Bucknell, Western Kentucky, San Diego State, Kent State, Wisconsin Milwaukee, Northwestern State, Winthrop, Murray State, Manhattan, Penn, Pacific, Northern Arizona, Oral Roberts, Delaware State, Albany, Fairleigh Dickinson, Georgia Southern, Lipscomb, Southern

-The opening round winner will play a #1 seed in the first round, not necessarily the top #1 seed. Ohio State is actually my fourth #1 seed, but since the opening round is in Dayton, I think they’d keep the play in winner there for the first round in the event a #1 seed is placed there.


-Memphis and Texas had their quests for a number one seed suffer a major bump when they suffered losses earlier this week. Barring a major collapse I have a hard time believing either team would be seeded worse than #2, but it’s going to be very difficult for them to get a #1.

Duke also suffered a loss to Florida State, but their resume is so solid that they can lose a game and still remain as a solid #1. They may be able to lose one more and they’d still likely get a #1 seed.

THE BUBBLE WATCH

OTHERS CONSIDERED

Hofstra
Syracuse
Air Force
Utah State

-Syracuse absolutely had the crap beat of them by DePaul on Thursday night. They have an RPI of 36, which is good, but the problem is that Seton Hall beat them head to head, has better wins, has performed better on the road, and is hotter down the stretch (at least for now). Those are all reasons to believe that Seton Hall would be taken ahead of Syracuse.

-Hofstra is in third place in the CAA, but what knocked them out of the bracket picture were the wins by UAB, Florida State and Texas A&M over quality teams. Hofstra could still play their way in with a strong showing in the CAA Tournament, but a loss in the quarterfinals all but dooms them.

-Air Force still has a good RPI, but no good wins and I just can’t see putting them in over Florida State, Texas A&M, UAB or even Cincinnati right now.

-Utah State has a good win against Nevada, but I still don’t think they’ve done enough. They certainly don’t have a big time win to offset some of their poor losses.

RESUME RUNDOWN

UNC WILMINGTON

GOOD:
-RPI = 38
-won CAA Regular season title
-9-1 in last ten games

FAIR:
-8-6 on the road
-2-3 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-two losses outside RPI top 100, one of which was to a sub RPI 200 team
-SOS = 108

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

GOOD:
-6-4 against RPI top 50
-tied for second in the MVC

FAIR:
-7-6 on the road
-RPI = 42
-SOS = 62

BAD:
-5-5 in last ten games
-3 losses outside RPI top 100
-one loss to div2 Alaska Anchorage

TEXAS A&M

GOOD:
-Quality win against Texas
-Have won six in a row
-no losses outside RPI top 100

FAIR:
-9-6 in Big Twelve play
-RPI = 51
-SOS = 77
-1-4 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-weak OOC schedule
-3-5 on the road

CINCINNATI

GOOD:
-RPI = 34
-SOS = 3

FAIR:
-3-7 against RPI top 50
-only one loss outside RPI top 100

BAD:
-4-6 in last ten games
-3-7 on the road
-have been less productive since injury to Armein Kirkland

FLORIDA STATE

GOOD:
-high quality win against Duke

FAIR:
-RPI = 54
-SOS = 81
-6-4 in last ten games
-8-7 in ACC play
-1-5 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-poor OOC SOS
-3-6 on the road

UAB

GOOD:
-high quality win against Memphis
-no losses outside RPI top 100

FAIR:
-7-4 on the road
-RPI = 46
-8-2 in last ten games
-1-2 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-SOS = 142

HOFSTRA

GOOD:
-RPI = 39
-9-1 in last ten games

FAIR:
-8-5 on the road
-2-1 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-two losses outside RPI top 100
-did not win regular season conference title
-SOS = 160

AIR FORCE

GOOD:
-RPI = 41

BAD:
-7-3 in last ten games
-did not win regular season conference title
-SOS = 153
-0-1 against RPI top 50
-4 losses outside RPI top 100

SYRACUSE

GOOD:
-RPI = 36
-SOS = 11
-no losses outside RPI top 100

FAIR:
-2-8 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-4-6 in last ten games
-3-5 on the road
-7-8 in Big East play

UTAH STATE

FAIR:
-7-5 on the road
-RPI = 48
-7-3 in last ten games
-1-1 against RPI top 50

BAD:
-5 losses outside RPI top 100
-SOS = 92


OTHER NOTES

-Kentucky pretty much assured themselves a spot with a win on the road at Tennessee. A win against either Florida or in the SEC Tournament will increase their chances of making it from about 80% to 99%.

-Southern Illinois needs to win against Evansville on Friday or they are in big trouble.

-Because there are so few teams out west with really good resumes, it’s hard to keep all the teams in the pod system close to home. George Washington and Tennessee made it, but got sent out to Salt Lake because there was literally no place left that was closer to send them (at least in my simulation).

-The season ends Sunday for everyone, and that is when the next bracket projection will be posted. However, the conference tournaments are underway so check BRACKET EXPRESS every day for in-depth coverage and analysis of everything that happens between now and the end of the season, and how it will affect the brackets. Our actual bracket will probably be updated more frequently than what's posted on the front page of the site, so make sure to check out the BracketExpress section of the site frequently next week.

Recent articles

Twitter @DraftExpress

DraftExpress Shop