Just by the numbers (Part Two)...Evaluating this Year's Shooting Guard Crop
Just by the numbers (Part Three)...Evaluating this Year's Small Forward Crop
Statistics are an important measure used by NBA teams to assist in evaluating prospects. When scouting players, it can be helpful to examine the stats to see if they back up your observations of a player on the court.
Power forwards compose the fourth look at the statistical breakdown of the five positions, and the top 20 at each position will be included. Unfortunately, it is impossible for us to include international stats in this breakdown, thus Yi Jianlian, Zoran Erceg, and Mirza Teletovic have been excluded from this comparison.
Before looking through the following piece, it may be helpful to first examine the DraftExpress Stat Legend composed by Noah Libby-Haines to gain a better understanding of the statistics used.
All the applicable stats have been changed to account for pace of play and adjusted to 40 minutes to provide an equal ground to compare players. Keep in mind that level of competition, a players role in his teams system, and age differentials (ie: freshman vs. seniors) mean that these numbers always have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.
Points Per Game
Nick Fazekas (who will show up quite a bit in this article) and Carl Landry lead the way here as the top scoring power forwards. Al Horford and Joakim Noah rank in the middle, which makes sense considering there were so many scoring options on the Florida team. Josh McRoberts ranks a disappointing second to last despite his large role with Duke this season.
Points Per Possession
Nick Fazekas was the most adept at putting up points with his many touches, while freshman sensation Brandan Wright is a close second [getting far fewer looks] at 1.26 points per possession. Glen Davis, Josh McRoberts, and Jermareo Davidson all struggle here, which may highlight their tendency to shoot jumpers rather than looking for higher percentage scoring chances near the basket. That, unsurprisingly perhaps, coincided with their teams having extremely disappointing seasons this year with them as #1 options. Carl Landry and Justin Doellman again rank near the top.
Free Throws Attempted Per Field Goal Attempt
This stat can be effective in measuring which players decide to attack the basket frequently rather than settling for jumpers. Caleb Green (absolutely outstanding at establishing position and using his body intelligently) was the most adept power-forward at drawing fouls in college, while the always very active Carl Landry, Joakim Noah, and Al Horford also rank high on the list. Nick Fazekas and Jermareo Davidson especially, and Brandan Wright, Glen Davis and Josh McRoberts to a lesser extent have all been labeled soft at one point in their career, and this stat would seem to back up that accusation.
Blocks Per Game
Stephane Lasme led all power forward in blocked shots per game this season by a ridiculous margin, followed by Ekene Ibekwe, Herbert Hill and Jermareo Davidson. Joakim Noah also ranks high on this list as well, while some of the lesser explosive big men (Chris Richard, Caleb Green, Ivan Radenovic and Glen Davis) struggle to average a full block despite the 40 minute adjustment to their numbers.
Blocks Per Foul
This stat was designed to measure the effectiveness of a shot-blocker who has the ability to block the ball cleanly against the player who picks up a lot of fouls trying to block everything. Lasme comes in at the top of this category as well, and Brandan Wright and Jermareo Davidson managed to block plenty of shots without playing in a lot of foul trouble.
True Shooting Percentage
Created by John Hollinger, True Shooting Percentage was designed to measure the all around efficiency of a scorer. It can be calculated by using the formula: TS% = Pts/(2*(FGA + (.47*FTA). Chris Richard and Carl Landry were the most efficient scorers using this as a measure. Fazekas and Wright show here well once again, while Jermareo Davidson comes in last by a large margin. Josh McRoberts and Glen Davis again show their inefficiency.
Turnovers Per Game
Caleb Green and Jason Smith turned the ball over more frequently than any other power forward, followed by Carl Landry. All three of these players received a good amount of touches on the offensive end and were forced to carry the offensive load for their teams. Brandan Wright and Jermareo Davidson both rank well at the bottom of the list. Joakim Noah averaged an unusually high number of turnovers considering the amount of touches he received.
Rebounds Per Game
Rashad Jones-Jennings led the country in rebounding this season, and dominated the Sun Belt Conference on the glass. He comes up first here by a huge margin. Nick Fazekas, sometimes called soft, other times called unathletic, still rebounded the ball at an extremely impressive rate. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both put up dominant rebounding numbers despite playing next to each other, while Brandan Wrights rebounding numbers suffered from playing next to Tyler Hansbrough.
Team Rebound Percentage
This stat can be effective when judging if a players rebounding numbers may be inflated due to teammates who struggled to grab loose balls. Rashad Jones-Jennings pulled down a whopping 36.7% of his teams rebounds this year. Brandan Wright only pulled down 15.2% playing on a North Carolina squad with many good rebounders.
Assists Per Game
Josh McRoberts was the most effective passing big man of this years power forward class, showing the tools to be an effective high post big man at the next level. Joakim Noah continued to show his versatility in possessing the ability to dish the ball to the open man from both the low block and off the dribble, with his frontcourt partner Al Horford not far behind. Glen Davis also displayed a good feel for finding the open man. At the end of the list we find a few players who their teammates might consider to be black holes.
Player Efficiency Rating
Player Efficiency Rating, also created by John Hollinger, was designed to measure the overall statistical effectiveness of each player. PER may not be the best stat to use to compare college players, however, as it does not distinguish between level of competition, as Noah Libby-Haines explains.
Nick Fazekas dominated this category by a huge margin thanks to his terrific all-around numbers and efficiency, and was followed by Carl Landry and Al Horford. The bottom of the list has many players who werent called upon or were unable to be main scoring options this season, including Josh McRoberts.
Efficiency is a calculation generated by the NBA to determine the statistical effectiveness of a player. They use the formula EFF = ((PTs + ORs + DRs + Stls + Asts + Blks): ((FGA: FG) + (FTA: FT) + Tos))/g to compute this statistic. Nick Fazekas is again at the top of this list by a nice margin. Herbert Hill ranks second here due to his strong contribution to Providence, while Caleb Green is third.
Efficiency Per 40 Minutes
The traditional EFF statistic measures what is produced by a player, while the EFF per 40 measures the same statistics while taking minutes into consideration. This allows for the evaluation of potential while looking at a players' all-around contribution. Al Horford and Joakim Noah both benefit from the 40 minute adjustment, as they had the luxury of long rest periods thanks to a deep big man rotation at Florida.
Win Score per 40 Minutes
Win Score is a stat recently added to our database at DraftExpress, and was created by David Berri. The statistic is calculated using the formula: PTS + TRB + STL + .5* BLK + .5*AST - FGA - .5*FTA - TO - .5*PF / Min * 40. Nick Fazekas terrific play obviously contributed strongly to the season Nevada had, while NCAA Champions Al Horford and Joakim Noah fill the second and third spots on the list.