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Just by the numbers...Evaluating this Year's Small Forward Crop
by: Mike Schmidt - D-League, NCAA Scout
June 16, 2007
Just by the numbers (Part One)...Evaluating this Year's Point Guard Crop

Just by the numbers (Part Two)...Evaluating this Year's Shooting Guard Crop

Statistics are an important measure used by NBA teams to assist in evaluating prospects. When scouting players, it can be helpful to examine the stats to see if they back up your observations of a player on the court.

The small forwards compose the third look at the statistical break down of the 5 positions, and the top 20 at each position will be included. Unfortunately, it is impossible for us to include international stats in this breakdown, thus Joao Gomes, Jonas Maciulis, and Marko Tomas have been excluded from this comparison.

Before looking through the following piece, it may be helpful to first examine the DraftExpress Stat Legend composed by Noah Libby-Haines to gain a better understanding of the statistics used.

All the applicable stats have been changed to account for pace of play and adjusted to 40 minutes to provide an equal ground to compare players. Keep in mind that level of competition, a player’s role in his team’s system, and age differentials (ie: freshman vs. seniors) mean that these numbers always have to be taken with a grain of salt.

Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.

Points Per Game



Freshman sensation Kevin Durant tops the scoring list of 20 small forward prospects. Two fifth year seniors, Alando Tucker and Al Thornton follow Durant on the list, both scoring in bunches as the top options on their team this season. Cartier Martin came off the bench for Kansas State for over half the season and his numbers benefit from the 40 minute adjustment.

Points Per Possession



Justin Cage scored the least points per game of the small forward prospects, but was the most efficient at putting the ball in the basket when he did score. Jared Dudley scored at a nice rate, but also took advantage of his touches efficiently thanks to the ability to draw contact and shoot the 3 at the college level. Kevin Durant scored on many field goal attempts but still managed to remain in the top 5 on this list.

What do all the players at the bottom of this list have in common? They all have plenty of work to do on their ball-handling skills. Particularly Julian Wright, Thaddeus Young, Corey Brewer and Wilson Chandler.

Three Pointers Attempted Per Field Goal Attempt



This stat is an indicator of which players’ offense relies heavily on their three point shooting. Demetris Nichols of Syracuse scored most of his points off three point jumpers, and appears that he could become the specialist type here in the NBA. Derrick Byars and Cartier Martin also relied on a high volume of three point shots to score, while the last 11 players on the list are predominantly power forwards who are making or have made the transition out to the wing.

Free Throws Attempted Per Field Goal Attempt



This stat can be effective in measuring which players decide to attack the basket frequently rather than settling for outside jump-shots. Justin Cage again ranks at the top of this list, showing the highest rate of getting inside and drawing contact when looking to score. Jared Dudley also gets to the line at a great rate, as does Dominic McGuire. Dudley does it with his smarts, McGuire with his quickness. Thaddeus Young ranks last of the 20 small forward prospects despite his terrific strength and athletic ability, again reminding us of the concerns revolving around his toughness, ball-handling skills and willingness to use his physical tools inside.

Three Point Field Goal Percentage



Reyshawn Terry, Al Thornton, and Jared Dudley were the best three point shooters percentage-wise at 44%. Kevin Durant took the third most three pointers of the prospects, and still managed to shoot 40% on the season. Julian Wright’s shooting ability has been questioned throughout his college career, and he only managed to shoot 23% from long range this season. Mohamed Abukar really looks like a poor shooter on paper for a guy who is billed to be almost strictly a shooting specialist at the next level.

Effective Field Goal Percentage



Effective Field Goal percentage was created by Mike Dunleavy to measure the percentage difference in value between two point and three point shots. This stat generally rewards players who shoot a high number of three pointers with success. Jared Dudley leads the way here, with Justin Cage closely behind. Wilson Chandler struggled with a streaky shot this season, and ranks second to the bottom on this list. Shot selection and/or poor touch from behind the arc generally becomes an issue as we move farther down this list.

True Shooting Percentage



Created by John Hollinger, True Shooting Percentage was designed to measure the all around efficiency of a scorer. It can be calculated by using the formula: TS% = Pts/(2*(FGA + (.47*FTA). Justin Cage and Jared Dudley both top this list again, thanks to a disciplined shot selection over the course of the season. The same typical suspects continue to find themselves at the bottom.

Turnovers Per Game



Dominic McGuire turned the ball over more frequently than any of the other small forwards, though this should improve as he becomes more accustomed to attacking and adjusting near the basket. Durant was relied upon more than any other scoring option in the nation, and only turned the ball over 3 times per game despite all of his touches. Jared Dudley kept his turnover numbers low as well. Justin Cage continues to impress with the way he stuck to his role this year. He looks like a consummate role player by his stats.

Rebounds Per Game



Kevin Durant proved to be one of the top rebounder in the nation all season, and he tops the list of small forward prospects, despite being “the worst athlete in the draft” (snicker). Dominic McGuire also shows good rebounding instincts and his toughness and freakish leaping ability helps him in this area. Julian Wright spent a good amount of time at power forward, and used his long arms and vertical jump to rebound the ball effectively. Demetris Nichols ranked last in rebounds, and will need to show some desire here to become a better all-around player. Derrick Byars and Thaddeus Young also showed a concerning lack of toughness in the paint despite having nice physical tools at their disposal.

Assists Per Game



Jeff Green handled the ball for Georgetown frequently this season, and his cerebral style of play led to many assists for the junior forward. Derrick Byars also dished the ball well to the open man within Vanderbilt’s Princeton offense, an ability which really helped him in the NCAA tournament. Corey Brewer also showed a very good feel with the ball in his hands, averaging just over 4 assists per game. Dominic McGuire, Julian Wright and Jared Dudley’s versatility begins to come out in this stat. Al Thornton was never thought to have a great feel for the game and still doesn’t average 1 assist per game when his numbers are adjusted per 40 minutes, which tells us a bit about how poor his teammates were, but also about some potential concerns that might arise regarding his ability to adjust to not being the “man” at the next level.

Assist To Turnover Ratio



Derrick Byars was the best decision maker with the ball in his hands of the small forward prospects. Green also fares well here, and Alando Tucker ranks third on the list. Kevin Durant ranks towards the bottom of the list, as his job was essentially to score the ball off of every touch, similar to Al Thornton, who still comes off considerably worse than Durant.

Player Efficiency Rating



Player Efficiency Rating, also created by John Hollinger, was designed to measure the overall statistical effectiveness of each player. PER may not be the best stat to use to compare college players, however, as it does not distinguish between level of competition, as Noah Libby-Haines explains.

Towards the top of the list, we see many of the elite scorers, including Kevin Durant, Al Thornton, Alando Tucker, and Jared Dudley, all of whom were above average in other aspects of the game as well. Mohamed Abukar and Quinton Hosley land at the bottom, as their poor shooting is not compensated well enough by the other parts of their game.

Efficiency



Efficiency is a calculation generated by the NBA to determine the statistical effectiveness of a player. They use the formula EFF = ((PTs + ORs + DRs + Stls + Asts + Blks): ((FGA: FG) + (FTA: FT) + Tos))/g to compute this statistic. This graph looks to be a good summary of the top contributors for their teams this year, with freshman Kevin Durant at the top by a very large margin. Jared Dudley and Dominic McGuire again rank near the top thanks to their terrific versatility. Alando Tucker ranks surprisingly low on this list, as does Corey Brewer, while Reyshawn Terry is dead last.

Efficiency Per 40 Minutes



The traditional EFF statistic measures what is produced by a player, while the EFF per 40 measures the same statistics while taking minutes into consideration. This allows for the evaluation of potential while looking at a players' all-around contribution. Julian Wright benefits from the per-40 minute adjustment, moving to third on the list. Reyshawn Terry moved up to 6th on the list. With the minute adjustment, players who produced well on loaded teams seemed to benefit the most.

Win Score per 40 Minutes



Win Score is a stat recently added to our database at DraftExpress, created by David Berri, author of the book “The Wages of Wins”. The statistic is calculated using the formula: PTS + TRB + STL + .5* BLK + .5*AST - FGA - .5*FTA - TO - .5*PF / Min * 40. Kevin Durant tops this list by an incredible margin as well, with Julian Wright and Jared Dudley being a full 4 behind for second and third place. Thaddeus Young’s numbers are again underwhelming here, as are Alando Tucker’s to a lesser extent.






















NameTeamLeaguePts/40p
Devan DowneySouth CarolinaNCAA25.1
Scottie ReynoldsVillanovaNCAA22.5
Greivis VasquezMarylandNCAA21.9
Jerome RandleCaliforniaNCAA20.9
Jeremy WiseBakersfield JamDLEAGUE20.3
Courtney FortsonArkansasNCAA20
Mikhail TorranceAlabamaNCAA19.6
A.J. SlaughterWestern KentuckyNCAA19.4
Nemanja GordicBuducnostADRIATIC18.6
John WallKentuckyNCAA18.2
Sherron CollinsKansasNCAA18
Ben UzohTulsaNCAA17.8
Armon JohnsonNevadaNCAA17.4
Matt BouldinGonzagaNCAA16.8
Tommy Mason-GriffinOklahomaNCAA15.5
Eric BledsoeKentuckyNCAA14.2
Ishmael SmithWake ForestNCAA13.3
Stefan MarkovicHemofarm STADAADRIATIC12.8
Stefan MarkovicHemofarm StadaEUROCUP9.6

 
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Feedback for this article may be sent to mike.schmidt@draftexpress.com .

 

Joao Gomes
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 190 lbs.
Birthday: 02/05/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School:
Previous Team: Andorra , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SG/SF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
8.2 Pts, 3.4 Rebs, 0.4 Asts


Jonas Maciulis
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 6"
Weight: 216 lbs.
Birthday: 02/10/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School:
Previous Team: Real Madrid , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
4.9 Pts, 3.0 Rebs, 1.3 Asts


Marko Tomas
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 198 lbs.
Birthday: 01/03/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School:
Previous Team: Cedevita , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SG/SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SG/SF
Quick Stats:
0.0 Pts, 0.0 Rebs, 0.0 Asts


Kevin Durant
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Birthday: 09/29/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Montrose Christian
Previous Team: Thunder , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #2 in 2007 Draft
by the SuperSonics
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: PF
Quick Stats:
22.4 Pts, 5.0 Rebs, 3.6 Asts


Alando Tucker
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 5"
Weight: 205 lbs.
Birthday: 02/13/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Township
Previous Team: Boulogne , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #29 in 2007 Draft
by the Suns
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
17.7 Pts, 3.7 Rebs, 1.7 Asts


Al Thornton
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 221 lbs.
Birthday: 12/07/1983
31 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Perry
Previous Team: Florida State , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #14 in 2007 Draft
by the Clippers
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
22.6 Pts, 7.4 Rebs, 2.0 Asts


Cartier Martin
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 6"
Weight: 218 lbs.
Birthday: 11/22/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Nimitz
Previous Team: Pistons , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
2.5 Pts, 0.8 Rebs, 0.6 Asts


Justin Cage
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 6"
Weight: 225 lbs.
Birthday: 06/26/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Pike
Previous Team: Mons , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SG/SF
Quick Stats:
9.3 Pts, 4.3 Rebs, 1.8 Asts


Jared Dudley
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 219 lbs.
Birthday: 07/11/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Horizon
Previous Team: Bucks , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #22 in 2007 Draft
by the Bobcats
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
5.6 Pts, 2.2 Rebs, 1.6 Asts


Julian Wright
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 211 lbs.
Birthday: 05/22/1987
27 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Homewood-Flossmoor
Previous Team: Panathinaikos , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #13 in 2007 Draft
by the Hornets
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
4.3 Pts, 2.3 Rebs, 0.3 Asts


Thaddeus Young
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 210 lbs.
Birthday: 06/21/1988
26 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Mitchell
Previous Team: Timberwolves , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #12 in 2007 Draft
by the 76ers
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
14.4 Pts, 4.6 Rebs, 1.9 Asts


Corey Brewer
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 185 lbs.
Birthday: 03/05/1986
28 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Portland
Previous Team: Timberwolves , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #7 in 2007 Draft
by the Timberwolves
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SG/SF
Quick Stats:
10.5 Pts, 3.9 Rebs, 3.3 Asts


Wilson Chandler
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 210 lbs.
Birthday: 05/10/1987
27 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Benton Harbor
Previous Team: Nuggets , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #23 in 2007 Draft
by the Knicks
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible:
Quick Stats:
14.8 Pts, 6.2 Rebs, 1.3 Asts


Demetris Nichols
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 211 lbs.
Birthday: 09/04/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: St. Andrew
Previous Team: CSKA Moscow , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 2, Pick #23 in 2007 Draft
by the Trailblazers
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
5.3 Pts, 1.9 Rebs, 0.4 Asts


Derrick Byars
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Birthday: 04/25/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Ridgeway
Previous Team: Sevilla , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 2, Pick #12 in 2007 Draft
by the Trailblazers
Positions:
Current: SG/SF,
NBA: SG/SF,
Possible:
Quick Stats:
7.6 Pts, 3.5 Rebs, 1.5 Asts


Dominic McGuire
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 220 lbs.
Birthday: 10/20/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Abraham Lincoln HS
Previous Team: Hapoel Holon , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 2, Pick #17 in 2007 Draft
by the Wizards
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
9.6 Pts, 4.6 Rebs, 2.8 Asts


Reyshawn Terry
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 222 lbs.
Birthday: 04/07/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: R.J. Renolyds
Previous Team: North Carolina , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 2, Pick #14 in 2007 Draft
by the Magic
Positions:
Current: SF,
NBA: SF,
Possible:
Quick Stats:
9.5 Pts, 3.6 Rebs, 1.1 Asts


Mohamed Abukar
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 10"
Weight: 210 lbs.
Birthday: 01/01/1985
29 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Rancho Bernardo
Previous Team: San Diego State , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: SF
Quick Stats:
11.6 Pts, 5.2 Rebs, 0.8 Asts




Jeff Green
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 9"
Weight: 228 lbs.
Birthday: 08/28/1986
28 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Hyattsville Northwestern
Previous Team: Celtics , PRO
Drafted: Rnd 1, Pick #5 in 2007 Draft
by the Celtics
Positions:
Current: SF/PF,
NBA: SF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
19.6 Pts, 4.4 Rebs, 1.6 Asts


Quinton Hosley
Full Profile | Player Stats
Physicals
Height: 6' 8"
Weight: 215 lbs.
Birthday: 03/25/1984
30 Years Old
Teams:
High School: Abraham Lincoln
Previous Team: Zastal , PRO
Drafted: Undrafted in Draft
Positions:
Current: PF,
NBA: SF/PF,
Possible: SF/PF
Quick Stats:
10.4 Pts, 5.1 Rebs, 3.1 Asts


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