DraftExpress: Post-Lottery Analysis: the Implications

Post-Lottery Analysis: the Implications

by: Jonathan Givony - President

May 21, 2008

With the order of one of the draft now set in stone, we take a look at the implications of the lottery drawing on each of the top 10 picks and what they might mean for the stock of various players in the draft. We also think about which players teams might consider at each individual draft slot.

AP

Make your own two round mock draft for free and share it with all your friends

Our pick for each individual team is highlighted in bold.

#1- Chicago Bulls

Will Consider: Michael Beasley , Derrick Rose

Chicago rejuvenates their entire organization by lucking into the top pick in this year’s draft, and thus the best possible solution for their scoring woes in the post. While they will work out and certainly give Derrick Rose a long hard look, it makes way too much sense to draft Beasley and let him fit right in at the biggest hole in their lineup—the 4. This pick fixes a lot of things for Chicago’s players, front office, local media and fan-base—things don’t look all that bad any more all of a sudden.

Chicago’s pick (then #9) was once on the trading block—in exchange for the right veteran to compliment their rapidly maturing high draft picks. The Bulls are in win-now mode and supposedly didn’t have the patience to wait for a player to develop—do they still feel the same now that they striking gold in the lottery? They will likely field some very intriguing trade offers….Sam Smith would have had a field day if he was still in the mix.

#2- Miami Heat

Will Consider: Derrick Rose

A huge sigh of relief from Miami’s front office, which desperately needed either of the top picks to help get the franchise back on track. Although it’s always nice to have your pick of the litter, in certain respects it’s advantageous to have the decision made for you—either Beasley or Rose would be just fine, and no one will question you taking the one that “falls” to there. Considering that Chicago will likely take Beasley, Derrick Rose (who almost certainly would have been Miami’s choice had they received the#1 overall pick) will look great next to Dwyane Wade in the Heat’s backcourt, allowing him to move off the ball and shoulder less offensive responsibilities, while also upgrading their perimeter defense significantly.

If Chicago trades the #1 pick or unexpectedly takes Rose, Miami will be more than happy to “make due” with Michael Beasley.

#3- Minnesota Timberwolves

Will Consider: Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo

Although they will probably be disappointed not to move into the top two, Minnesota should still be pleased not to have moved down at least , and to have their pick of the consolation prizes of the draft lottery. Brook Lopez, Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo will likely be their short-list of players to choose from, and the ultimate choice might end up coming down to positional needs rather than the best player available.

Minnesota’s pick will tell us two key things about how they feel about their current roster. One, do the Timberwolves still consider Randy Foye the cornerstone he was meant to be when they traded Brandon Roy’s draft rights and selected him 7th overall just two years ago? And two, do they view Al Jefferson as more of a power forward in their lineup, thus forcing them to find a center, read: Brook Lopez? Minnesota’s head coach Randy Wittman already showed their hand to a certain extent by stating at the conclusion of the season that they would like to move Jefferson to the 4, something that may hurt their leverage in trade scenarios dealing with teams looking to move up to the #3 pick.

#4- Seattle Supersonics

Will Consider: Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo, Kevin Love, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph

The Supersonics took a bigger hit than anyone in the lottery, falling two spots from #2 to #4 overall, which is a pretty decent setback for a franchise that needs about as much help as it can get at this point considering the turmoil it’s going through with the city of Seattle.

Considering their weakness at the guard spot, it seems like O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless would be the frontrunners here. This is a decision that likely won’t be decided for quite some time, as there is a lot of information that needs to be processed—particularly about the direction the team sees itself heading, the culture of the organization and how each player fits in, whether or not the roster needs more of a 1/2 at the moment or a 2/1, and how each of those players fit in with the core of Kevin Durant and Jeff Green.

Don’t be surprised to see Sam Presti hold his cards very close to the vest and work out a large range of players for this pick, as well as diligently and discreetly explore what kind of value it might have on the open market at this point.

Right now, we look at Bayless as the frontrunner, but this could really go either way.

#5-Memphis Grizzlies

Will Consider: Kevin Love, O.J. Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Eric Gordon, Anthony Randolph

Memphis is in a bit of a tough spot here, as they really needed to be in a position to draft a sure-fire big man they can plug into their system right away and produce from day one, i.e. Michael Beasley or Brook Lopez. Their roster is extremely perimeter heavy at the 1-4 positions. Falling to #5 means they will need to heavily consider reaching a bit for Kevin Love here, as they are seemingly set at the guard positions (possibly ruling out Mayo) and likely have very little need for a player like Gallinari, Gordon or Randolph.

Trading the pick might be an option as well, but taking on a contract of a player who will need to be resigned or extended sooner might not be an option for a franchise that seems completely unwilling to spend money to improve itself at this point.

Things are pretty wide open at this pick.

#6- New York Knicks

Will Consider: O.J. Mayo, Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, Kevin Love, DeAndre Jordan, D.J. Augustin

Donnie Walsh and the Knicks need to get their new era off to a great start by hitting a homerun with this pick, as their assets are extremely limited otherwise.

If O.J. Mayo is on the board, it’s hard to see New York passing him up. He fills a need, has the most value here of any player, and also is likely the most ready player around to deal with the incredible amount of scrutiny that comes along with playing in the media capital of the world.

Mike D’Antoni will also give consideration to fellow Italian Danilo Gallinari, although it’s not quite clear that this is the direction the franchise should head in considering how much they are lacking in other departments.

#7- Los Angeles Clippers

Will Consider: Eric Gordon, D.J. Augustin, Anthony Randolph, Danilo Gallinari, DeAndre Jordan

The Clippers need a point guard, meaning that they could realistically reach a bit up the board and snag sophomore D.J. Augustin, or they could opt for a player with slightly more value at that pick, and look to take someone who fills one of their many other serious needs. Eric Gordon may fit that mold, especially if the team feels like they will be losing Corey Maggette this summer. Gordon would actually be a fantastic compliment for a big point guard like Shaun Livingston who can defend shooting guards and allow Gordon to focus more on being a scorer.

#8- Milwaukee Bucks

Will Consider: Danilo Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, D.J. Augustin, DeAndre Jordan, Donte Greene

Milwaukee has a lot of talent at virtually every position on their roster except small forward at this point, making that clearly their biggest need in this draft. Rather than making sweeping personnel changes, they decided to change the head coach and general manager, opting to bring in a new culture to the organization, one with more of an emphasis on accountability and mental toughness, drawing from fellow Eastern conference foes Detroit and Chicago to help accomplish that.

The best small forward on the board here is clearly Danilo Gallinari, and in this particular projection, he falls right into their lap, making this a no brainer decision considering the versatility, unselfishness and high-level experience he brings to the table. Donte Greene will get a serious look too, although he might not have as much value here.

#9- Charlotte Bobcats

Will Consider: Anthony Randolph, DeAndre Jordan, D.J. Augustin, Donte Greene, Russell Westbrook, Kosta Koufos

Before deciding who to draft, the Bobcats first of all need to decide what direction their organization is heading in after the hiring of Larry Brown. The roster seems best suited to run, but Larry Brown has always been known as a defensive oriented, grind it out type, making it interesting to see how the pieces they have will fit into their overall scheme. Can Raymond Felton play the type of half-court basketball that Brown demands? And if not, does D.J. Augustin make more sense here? Is Emeka Okafor better suited as a PF or a C in today’s basketball, and with that in mind do you draft someone to compliment him at either position, like Kosta Koufos or Anthony Randolph? Is it just better off to go with best player available and decide later?

#10- New Jersey Nets

Will Consider: DeAndre Jordan, Russell Westbrook, Donte Greene, Kosta Koufos, Joe Alexander

The Nets are caught somewhere in the middle between rebuilding and mediocrity, having been aided greatly by the terrific trade they pulled off parlaying an aging Jason Kidd for a true cornerstone in Devin Harris and a few first round picks to boot. They are still in the midst of building their frontcourt, though, but unfortunately seem to be caught in a portion of the draft with very little in the ways of proven contributors, especially considering the importance their coach puts on the defensive end of the ball. DeAndre Jordan seems like a poor fit considering the way Lawrence Frank wants to play, but seems to be most talented big man on the board at this point. Kosta Koufos might be a bit high at this point, but is also worthy of being considered. If the Nets look outside of the big man slots, they’ll find some interesting prospects as well that could help them down the road.

Feedback for this article may be sent to jonathan@draftexpress.com .

del.icio.us