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| Blogging through the Euroleague Final Four (Part One) |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| May 2, 2008 |
DraftExpress is on hand in Madrid to take in the most important event on the European basketball calendar, the Euroleague Final Four. Maccabi Tel Aviv erased a 15-point deficit to knock of Montepaschi Siena in shocking fashion in the first game, while CSKA Moscow outmuscled Tau Vitoria in a brutally physical game to claim the second spot in the finals. There is some buzz coming from the many NBA scouts in attendance, while the junior tournament is also occupying our time nicely as well.
 | | Euroleague.net |
The Euroleague Final Four in Madrid
Just in case there was any doubt, have no mistake that Madrid is one of the best cities you’ll find in all of Europe. This is our second time spending time here in the last nine months (last time for the Eurobasket in August), and it doesn’t take very long to figure that out. Clean, convenient, friendly, and absolutely gorgeous this time of year, you won’t find anyone here complaining about the Euroleague deciding to host the Final Four here. It’s funny to see how incredibly packed the streets are with people until the wee hours of the morning, only to walk along the “busiest” sections of the city at 8:30 AM and not see a single soul. Good luck finding anything open that time either.
The Scene
As basketball people always find a way do, there is some nitpicking going on as well. The process of distributing tickets drew the ire of quite a few people here, as many people were apparently forced to purchase all-inclusive package deals costing 2,000 Euros (over 3,000 dollars) just to get their hands on a ticket. Many of the tickets went through a Greek travel agent apparently, and in the end the Euroleague had to open up their box office for a few hours to unload the unsold inventory. There were a good deal of empty seats in the arena unfortunately, which is truly a shame when considering how many fans stayed home because they were unable to find tickets. There were a good 50 courtside seats that were not used at all, along with plenty of empty patches scattered around the arena, especially in the sections holding the Euroleague VIPs. Not exactly “feeling” my seats on press row, or the smell of the “journalist” sitting next to me, I took off for a seat in the fifth row courtside, which just happened to be behind my good friend David Blatt. Even here the Head Coach of the European Champion Russian National team was focused on explaining the fascinating nuances of the game to me, his son, and anyone else that was interested.
Unsurprisingly, it was Maccabi Tel Aviv fans the one who dominated the arena, controlling at least 1/3rd of the 13,000 seats, and clearly being the most vocal supporting their teams. The support of the team was nothing short of amazing, and it was hard not getting goosebumps as they serenaded the two most veteran players on their team, Nikola Vujcic and Derrick Sharp, with personalized songs. It wouldn’t be a stretch to call them the best fans in basketball.
The Buzz
The Nike Junior tournament running parallel to the men’s event gave us a great chance to meet quite a few NBA scouts and executives and pick their brains about various topics, specifically this year’s draft. We talked to representatives of at least 10 teams, giving us a decent sample size from which to evaluate the stock of a few different prospects. Danilo Gallinari seems to be holding pretty steady at this point in the 5-12 range—we couldn’t find anyone that has him ranked below that here at least. Rudy Fernandez is apparently set to join the Portland Trailblazers according to word we got from well-placed local sources here in Spain. Some teams surprisingly have Alexis Ajinca ranked ahead of Nicolas Batum, and there was some quiet buzz about a few surprise early-entry players who could make solid second round picks, such as Nando De Colo and Henk Norel. Most of the people I spoke with here agreed with the notion that Andrea Bargnani’s terrible season and the imminent assertion that he is looking more and more like a total bust of a #1 pick could psychologically affect the way some of the less secure GMs evaluate international prospects in this draft.
In the junior tournament, FMP Zeleznik is unsurprisingly undefeated, having knocked off Zalgiris today in what could have very well been the tournament’s final game. Barcelona and the scrappy, overachieving Lietuvos Rytas will fight it out to play the “real” final on Sunday against FMP tomorrow. Not surprising as well is the fact that Donatas Motiejunas is the most intriguing NBA prospect at the junior tournament, even though he struggled today against FMP, followed by Tomislav Zubcic, who has strung together two very strong games so far. Ryan Richards has made an appearance here, but has been extremely underwhelming. We’ll have a full report on the top prospects here as soon as we get back.
The Games
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Montepaschi Siena
Things got off to a very sloppy start in the first contest. Maccabi looked especially nervous, making careless mistakes on defense, committing foolish turnovers (10 total in the first half), giving up offensive rebounds, and just not being able to hit shots, scoring just 7 points in the first 8 minutes of the game. Siena jumped out to a 15 point lead fairly quickly, mostly led by the incredible play of their point guard Terrell McIntyre, who scored 16 points in 12 first half minutes (4-6 3P), to go along with 3 assists and no turnovers. Lior Eliyahu kept Maccabi in the game almost singlehandedly, with 8 big points in a 10 minute spark off the bench. Maccabi went to the lockerroom down 45-33. They were a bit lucky that Siena missed 16 of their 22 3-pointers, many of them open looks.
Terrell McIntrye continued to play well in the second half, as Siena’s plan of outletting the ball to him at half-court in stride and allowing him to operate and make decisions in semi-transition before Maccabi could set their defense worked to perfection. His legs started giving out a bit mid-way through the third quarter, though, (he spent the last month out after arthroscopic surgery) and that combined with their glue guy Shaun Stonerook’s fourth foul gave Maccabi a chance to chip away at the lead.
It was here that Maccabi’s superior bench began to reap dividends for them, as guards Derrick Sharp and Alex Garcia caught fire and combined for an amazing 21 points in the third quarter alone, and made some incredibly important hustle plays. Garcia was incredible aggressive all game long, while Sharp, a legend in Tel Aviv by now who was relegated mostly to figurehead status as of late in old age, provided a huge leadership boost and incredible clutch play on both ends. Will Bynum also found redemption for the problems he suffered on and off the court this season, shredding apart Siena’s defense with drive and dish plays and scoring quite a bit himself via layups or shots from the free throw line. Terrence Morris and Yotam Halperin have been arguably Maccabi’s two most important players all season long, but they were not really needed all that much as Maccabi slashed the huge deficit and built up a lead of their own, to their delight of their screaming fanbase. This was not a game for young guys--Omri Casspi only ended up playing 4 minutes and 29 seconds total, all in the first quarter as part of the starting unit. Fellow starter Vonteego Cummings suffered the same fate.
 | | Reuters |
Maccabi finished the game off winning 92-85, scoring 84 points in the final 30 minutes after starting out the game down 20-8. Derrick Sharp scored 17 points in 23 minutes, while Alex Garcia added 19 in 26. Terrence Morris had 13 points and 7 rebounds, while Will Bynum contributed 13 points and 7 assists. David Bluthenthal also had a very nice game with 11 points, 4 rebounds and 2 blocks. For Siena, Terrell McIntyre scored 26 points with 5 assists, Romain Sato had 17 points, 11 rebounds and 3 steals, and Ksistof Lavrinovic had 17 points and 2 rebounds.
CSKA Moscow vs. Tau Vitoria
This one looked like a much slower, more thought out game than the up and down pace of the previous game. Tau Vitoria jumped ahead to a surprising 39-33 lead in the first 20 minutes, mainly behind the inside presence of Tiago Splitter (10 points, and 6 missed free throws), and the surprisingly aggressive play of Zoran Planinic. Ramunas Siskauskas carried CSKA early, making shots and creating opportunities for Matjaz Smodis, but foul trouble limited his play, as well as Langdon’s—with 3 fouls each. Tau’s defense did a great job early on of forcing CSKA into taking bad shots, and the Russians clearly lacked a spark off the bench from their once great playmaker, Theo Papaloukas. He’s been fairly invisible so far, not trying to initiate anything, and clearly lacking the athleticism to get by anyone or finish when he did. This was not a pretty game in the first half, and the atmosphere clearly fell off a bit once Maccabi’s fans exited the building to begin the celebrations. CSKA is relying too heavily on JR Holden to carry them offensively, which is making them a bit predictable.
The second half was an all-out war, as both teams pounded on each other incessantly inside, on every drive, post-up and box-out for rebound, while there were only so many fouls that the ref could have called. David Andersen was excellent for CSKA, scoring 12 points in the half (16 total) on a series of mid-range jumpers, being particularly clutch in the closing minutes when his team took the lead and held onto it until the very end. He played nearly the entire second half, and did not miss a shot inside the arc the entire game, going 8-8 from the field. His last basket might have been his biggest, a huge put-back dunk off an offensive rebound to put CSKA up by 7 with just over a minute to go. We wondered if the Hawks would be here, and indeed the man responsible for drafting him seven years back, Mark Crow, was in attendance and looked quite pleased with the way he played, as he should have been. Theodoros Papaloukas woke up in the second half, reeling off 8 points to finish with 10, and stringing together two huge transition baskets in the fourth quarter that were extremely important to his team’s win. Ramunas Siskauskas finished with a “quiet” 16 points, always within the flow of his offense, slaloming in between defenders and finishing either hand, knocking down shots, drawing plenty of fouls and knocking down 7 of his 8 shots from the line, including two huge ones at the very end to seal the game.
The final score was 83-79 CSKA. The Russians are going to the Euroleague final for the third straight year in a row. This is their sixth straight appearance in the Final Four. They had five players finish with double digit scoring. Tiago Splitter had 17 points for Tau on 5-7 shooting from the field. He was terrific with his back to the basket inside, commanding double teams and finding the open man, using nice pivot moves and even hitting a pretty swooping hook shot in the lane. Maybe the 7-14 he shot from the free throw line will convince him to work on getting rid of the ugly hitch he has in his mechanics from the line, but regardless, there is no question that the San Antonio Spurs got a huge stud—a player worthy of a top 10 pick fall to them at the end of the first round. Zoran Planinic was solid with 17 points, and Igor Rakocevic had 19. |
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jonathan@draftexpress.com |
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| Antonio Anderson Entering the Draft |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| April 22, 2008 |
Antonio Anderson filed paperwork making himself eligible for this year’s draft, the player informed DraftExpress’ Jonathan Givony today. “I sent my letter in today…I’ll be entering the draft without an agent,” Anderson told us. “I’ll be trying to learn as much as I can, and try to see where I’m at and what teams think of me.”
Anderson filed the paperwork with Memphis coach John Calipari’s blessing. “He knows that I’m entering, and supports me 100%,” Anderson said. “I would definitely like to go to the NBA pre-draft camp and see where this process takes me.” He said it’s too early to say where he would have to be drafted in order to keep his name in.
Anderson, an athletic 6-6 guard with strong playmaking skills and lock-down defensive ability, is currently projected as a mid-2nd round pick by two NBA teams we spoke to this evening. One scout likened him to a “poor man’s Andre Iguodala.” They like his versatility being able to guard and play multiple positions, as well as his excellent 2.62/1 assist to turnover ratio, but will scrutinize his jump-shot and overall scoring ability during workouts and the pre-draft camp. Anderson will turn 23 in June. |
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jonathan@draftexpress.com |
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| What to Look for this Weekend in the Final Four |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| April 4, 2008 |
What will scouts be looking for from the various individual NBA prospects this weekend in San Antonio at the NCAA Final Four, and what their teams will need from them in the matchups they'll be going be facing.
UCLA vs. Memphis
Darren Collison- Similar to DJ Augustin last week, Darren Collison will have a chance to prove that his below average size will not be a hindrance in terms of getting his shot off, seeing the floor and being able to contain an NBA sized athlete in Derrick Rose. He's had some issues with shaky ball-handling in this tournament, which is not going to fly against the length and athleticism he'll be facing on the perimeter at any given moment. Additionally, scouts will want to see whether he steps up to the plate and makes things happen for his team when they most need him to, or whether he will be passive and take a backseat as he's been known to do sometimes. After DJ Augustin's relatively poor performance against Memphis last weekend, there is an opportunity for someone to step up and lay a claim to the title of second best point guard in this draft. Collison won't want it to be Ty Lawson.
Russell Westbrook- Westbrook has not had the type of performance he needed in March to take the next step from sleeper prospect to sure-fire lottery pick, shooting just 15-43 from the field in the tournament thus far, as showing his limitations in terms of polish, position, and pressure-handling. The potential label can only take you so far at this stage, and executives would like to see him have a signature performance that they can hang their hat on if they are going to draft him as high as his upside warrants.
Kevin Love- the favorite right now for Most Outstanding Player honors, Love has made a believer out of many doubters with the way he's played in the NCAA tournament. It will be important not to go out on a sour note, as his draft stock is at its peak right now, but could get volatile if he gives any reason for NBA GMs to believe that he won't be able to translate his production to the next level due to his athletic shortcomings. He will be matching up with one of the nastiest centres in college basketball in Joey Dorsey, a strong, long, super athletic beast of a defender who will be salivating at the mouth at the chance of getting revenge on a big name big man after the Greg Oden debacle last year, where he was absolutely humiliated. How well Love is able to handle Dorsey could give us some decent insight in his ability to translate his game to playing against NBA caliber defenders.
Derrick Rose- After two breathtaking performances in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, Rose has a chance to further lay claim to being the number one overall pick with a strong showing against possibly the best defensive team in the NCAA. Its pretty much unprecedented for a freshman point guard to do what he's doing at this level with the way he's carrying his team, and if he can somehow manage to come close to the way he played last weekend, he is going to be extremely difficult for the likes of the Miami Heat, Seattle Supersonics, Minnesota Timberwolves or New York Knicks to pass him up with the first overall selection.
Chris Douglas-Roberts- Should have a favorable matchup going up against Josh Shipp or Russell Westbrook, as he is too athletic and aggressive for Shipp's limited lateral quickness and too big for the 6-3 Westbrook. Memphis will be going to him often, and UCLA will likely sag off him to force him to prove that he can knock down open shots, preferably from the 16-20 foot range. His ability to hit these open looks could be a huge key to the game, as if UCLA needs to defend all the way out to the 3-point line, there will be a lot more space for Memphis to use their athleticism to slash to the basket. Despite a first-team All-American caliber season, Douglas-Roberts still has his doubters amongst NBA executives, due to his unconventional appearance and style of play. A big game against UCLA could be what solidifies him in the first round and gives him a chance to establish himself as possibly the top swingman in this draft, which happens to be the shallowest position of all this year.
Joey Dorsey- Will have a monster matchup on his hands going up against Kevin Love. He'll need to both prove that he can step away from the basket and defend a perimeter shooting big man, as well as be focused enough to avoid being pinned down in the post and not bite for the array of pump-fakes he'll be faced with all game long against the extremely crafty Love. Not really known as a big game player, Dorsey has a chance to change that perception this weekend with a big outing in the most important game of his life so far.
North Carolina vs. Kansas
Ty Lawson- Might be the biggest key to this game, as he's the one that controls the tempo for Carolina and is responsible for making good decisions in the half-court. Going up against two extremely good defenders in Russell Robinson and Mario Chalmers, Lawson will have to be at his absolute best to make sure his offense flows smoothly. Kansas will likely sag off and encourage him to beat them from the perimeter, so hitting his shots from behind the arc will be crucial.
Tyler Hansbrough- Carolina will also need a huge game from their go-to guy, as he'll be seeing a variety of defenders and defenses in an attempt to somehow slow him down. Louisville dared him to shoot from the outside in the Elite Eight, and saw that decision backfire as Hansbrough drained all four perimeter jump-shots he took. It will be interesting to see if Kansas decides to guard him straight up in the post or doubles him every time on the catch. He'll need to make good decisions with the ball in his hands, as Kansas' guards are notorious for their ball-hawking skills, as well as continue to play solid defense.
Danny Green- Will come off the bench and try to give Carolina a spark exploiting mismatches on both ends of the floor. Will likely be assigned Kansas' best offensive player--Brandon Rush-- a player he has the length and athleticism to contain, but must study intently to ensure he doesn't get hot from the perimeter.
Wayne Ellington- Must stay aggressive throughout the game to help Carolina impose the type of tempo they like to play at, and will need to hit his shots from the perimeter and play well in transition. May have to guard a much quicker player than him in Sherron Collins at times, or a much bigger player in Brandon Rush. Ellington is rumored to be considering declaring for the draft this year, but he's yet to have a signature performance in any of Carolina's big games thus far, except possibly @Clemson. Considering how crowded the first round is, this could be a great showcase for him.
Brandon Rush- After a pretty poor outing in the Elite Eight against Davidson, the NBA-bound Rush will need to have a strong showing here in the Final Four to ensure himself some good momentum going into the pre-draft process this spring. Rush has been very aggressive throughout the month of March, and Kansas will want him to continue to do so, as they don't have many players on their roster who can really create shots for themselves. His perimeter shooting will be key, and contributions defensively and on the glass would be very helpful as well.
Darrell Arthur- Arthur has faded badly over the last two months, much like he did last season, and has at times been pretty invisible despite spending heavy minutes on the court. He has not broken double-digits since Kansas' lopsided victory in the first round against Portland State, and has not been much of a factor on the glass either, which is typical of him. Arthur needs to come out focused and intense in this huge matchup he has against Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson, as his team needs him to play smart and not get into foul trouble trying to slow them down. Being the most naturally gifted post scorer Kansas has, it would be of huge help if he could force Carolina's big men to guard him and possibly even pick up some fouls in the process. Having only cracked the 10-rebound mark four times all season, this would be a great time to show that he can put his size, length, hands and superb athleticism to good use...Darrell Arthur might be the X-factor in this game.
Sherron Collins- Besides some sparks here and there against UNLV, Sherron Collins hasn't been much of a factor offensively for Kansas. Probably the most athletic player on this team, and also their best ball-handler, they could really use a good performance from him this weekend as a shot-creator when things inevitably break down for them offensively. |
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jonathan@draftexpress.com |
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| Bad News for Those Who Didn’t Do Their Homework Early... |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| March 27, 2008 |
The first weekend of the NCAA tournament saw most of the top prospects in the draft eliminated from contention after only or two games, which is a major change compared to years past. As opposed to last year, where we could see six of the eventual top 9 picks in the draft just by showing up for the Final Four, or 9 of the top 14 in the Sweet 16 (in 2006 that rose to 10 of 14), this year’s group of NBA GMs will not be anywhere near as lucky. That is, unless a major shakeup happens on our board, caused by previously unheralded prospects moving up dramatically after monumental performances in the Sweet 16 and on. This year, only 5 of the projected 14 lottery picks are still standing going into the Sweet 16, meaning that the real-game evaluation period has mostly come to a close.
How the Lottery portion of the 2007 Draft fared in the NCAA Tournament
| 07 Draft Lottery |
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Position | Player | Placement |
| #1 | Greg Oden | Finals |
#2 | Kevin Durant | Second Round |
#3 | Al Horford | Champion |
#4 | Mike Conley Jr | Finals |
#5 | Jeff Green | Final Four |
#6 | Yi Jianlian | International |
#7 | Corey Brewer | Champion |
#8 | Brandan Wright | Elite Eight |
#9 | Joakim Noah | Champion |
#10 | Spencer Hawes | DNP |
#11 | Acie Law | Sweet 16 |
#12 | Thaddeus Young | First round |
#13 | Julian Wright | Elite Eight |
#14 | Al Thornton | DNP |
How the Lottery portion of the 2006 Draft fared in the NCAA Tournament
| 06 Draft Lottery |
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Position | Player | Placement |
#1 | Andrea Bargnani | International |
#2 | LaMarcus Aldridge | Elite Eight |
#3 | Adam Morrison | Sweet 16 |
#4 | Tyrus Thomas | Final Four |
#5 | Shelden Williams | Sweet 16 |
#6 | Brandon Roy | Sweet 16 |
#7 | Randy Foye | Elite Eight |
#8 | Rudy Gay | Elite Eight |
#9 | Patrick O’Bryant | Sweet 16 |
#10 | Saer Sene | International |
#11 | J.J. Redick | Sweet 16 |
#12 | Hilton Armstrong | Elite Eight |
#13 | Thabo Sefolosha | International |
#14 | Ronnie Brewer | First Round |
How this year’s projected Lottery has fared thus far
| 08 Draft Lottery |
|---|
Position | Player | Placement |
| #1 | Michael Beasley | Eliminated |
#2 | Derrick Rose | Alive |
#3 | Jerryd Bayless | Eliminated |
#4 | Brook Lopez | Alive |
#5 | O.J. Mayo | Eliminated |
#6 | Danilo Gallinari | International |
#7 | Blake Griffin | Eliminated |
#8 | Eric Gordon | Eliminated |
#9 | Kevin Love | Alive |
#10 | DeAndre Jordan | Eliminated |
#11 | D.J. Augustin | Alive |
#12 | Anthony Randolph | DNP |
#13 | Darren Collison | Alive |
#14 | Chase Budinger | Eliminated |
How they Went Out
Considering this is likely the last time we’ll be writing about the way these players performed in a college game, a short summary of how the projected lottery picks fared in their final showing is probably in order.
Michael Beasley, 6-9, Freshman, PF, Kansas
Beasley’s NCAA tournament experience probably didn’t start or end quite the way he expected it to. He picked up two quick fouls in the first four minutes of his first game against Southern Cal, and only ended up scoring five points in the first half of that game. He recovered to pump in 18 after intermission, though, showing his incredible scoring instincts by creating his own shot from the perimeter and finishing with either hand in a variety of ways, his awesome first step and shooting range, as well as his phenomenal hands and touch around the rim. He didn’t go down in the paint as much as we’re normally accustomed to seeing him, preferring to face the basket and quickly take players off the dribble instead, likely to avoid the problems his guards usually have with making quality post-entry passes, as well as the barrage of double-teams he usually sees down low.
#11 seed Kansas State moved on to face #3 seed Wisconsin, a team that ended up being just too smart, disciplined, fundamental and well-coached for them to handle. He started off the game well, but did not show great poise down the stretch against this extremely stingy defensive team, forcing the issue even more than he typically does, driving into bricks walls in the lane in out of control fashion, and settling for off-balance fade-aways from outside, which just wouldn’t fall for him in the second half. He played extremely poorly on the defensive end in particular, which has been his biggest weakness all season long. He at times struggles to maintain his focus on both ends of the floor, losing his concentration and making poor decisions. He contributed very little to his team in the second half, but one poor stretch of basketball obviously doesn’t erase an entire season of fantastic play, so he still looks like the sure-fire #1 pick barring any major surprises.
Jerryd Bayless, 6-3, Freshman, PG/SG, Arizona
Bayless is in a bit of a tough situation: when he’s extremely aggressive looking for his own shot, people say he’s selfish, but when he lets things come to him, he’s criticized for being too passive. He definitely leaned more towards the latter in this particular contest, doing some nice playmaking setting up teammates, but never showing that extra gear we’ve seen numerous times during the course of the season where he just takes over a game and refuses to let his team lose. Part of that has to do with the fact that Arizona’s starters played a combined 190 out of a possible 200 minutes (with Bayless going the distance), a lot of that had to do with the fantastic team defense West Virginia played. But part of that was on Bayless too—who had favorable matchups he could have exploited at times thanks to his far superior physical tools, but for some reason showed little urgency trying to do so. He in fact only got to the free throw line twice in this game, which is tied for the second lowest total of the season for him. He was fantastic finding spots to operate in the mid-range, where he pulled up off the dribble beautifully in trademark fashion. The problem was he seemed to settle for these long-range jumpers too often, not taking the ball particularly strong to the basket, and not finishing very well or drawing contact when he did, showing a certain lack of toughness in the process—something that’s somewhat of a concern with him.
Bayless did not make up for his lack of aggression offensively with his play on the other end of the floor unfortunately. He struggled to fight through screens on numerous occasions, giving his matchup plenty of time to set his feet and get a clean shot off. When he was defending players head on, his lack of length, height and energy was clearly a poor mix in terms of contesting shots. It’s pretty obvious that Bayless is going to have problems defending the 2-guard position—unless he improves dramatically here, that is probably something his next coach will have to live with. We’re still talking about a supreme talent obviously, a virtual lock to be drafted in the top 10, but it’s pretty clear that Bayless peaked midway through the season and not at the very end. We must keep in mind that he’s only a freshman, though.
O.J. Mayo, 6-5, Freshman, PG/SG, Southern Cal
Mayo looked extremely nervous in his first (and likely last) NCAA tournament appearance, doing some very uncharacteristic things of a player who has garnered so much praise lately for his poise and maturity—for example picking up his dribble at mid-court in his very first possession. He forced some very bad shots up in the first half, but also did a phenomenal job of putting his court vision on display and making some gorgeous passes. He showed his perimeter shooting range by knocking down two NBA+ range 3-pointers, as well as by coming off a screen and spotting up, but was pretty cold early and late in the game, going just 6-15 total from the field, and scoring 20 points overall. Defensively, he was intense as usual, getting low in his stance, doing his best to contest shots, getting in the passing lanes, and guarding multiple positions on the court. All in all, this probably wasn’t the way Mayo envisioned his NCAA career ending when he committed to USC, and it surely wasn’t the situation he signed up for, but he did a pretty admirable job living up the impossible swirl of hype that preceded him.
Blake Griffin, 6-10, Freshman, Power Forward, Oklahoma
Griffin and #6 seed Oklahoma were blown out in the second round by #3 seed Louisville, but they did a nice job regardless advancing past St. Joe’s and don’t have anything to be ashamed of. Griffin did not get a great deal of opportunities to showcase his skill-set, as he struggled for touches in both games and ended up only getting 13 shots combined, but he made the most of his opportunities, converting on 10 of those. He saw a steady diet of double teams in both contests, but there is really no excuse for how poor of a job his teammates did in finding him in the post.
Griffin exhibited his typical combination of outstanding athleticism and terrific body control with his back to the basket and finishing around the paint, which is a cinch for him considering his huge hands, explosive leaping ability, great strength and extremely soft touch. He has excellent footwork and is very creative with the type of pivot moves he likes to use, often finishing with a sweet finesse move, a mix of scoop/flip shots and turnaround jumpers. If his first shot didn’t fall, he was extremely quick off his feet and tenacious as always looking for the offensive rebound. He looks a lot more patient than he did earlier in the season, and has definitely adapted himself nicely to college basketball, even if he may not be around for too much longer.
Defensively, Griffin still doesn’t seem to play with a great sense of urgency, either denying space in the post or closing out on shooters on the perimeter. This isn’t anything shocking considering his youth, but when you look at how hard he plays offensively, you have to wonder why that doesn’t translate as well to the other end of the floor. His skill-level also isn’t incredibly high at this point, as he struggles finishing with his left hand and doesn’t have much ability to face the basket, which he doesn’t really need to quite yet.
Griffin has a lot of room to improve on his all-around game, but also has a great deal of talent to help accomplish that. Once considered a lock to return for his sophomore season, a sprained MCL in one knee and a partially torn meniscus in another has at least given him cause for pause in regard to that final decision. Recent rumors since Oklahoma was eliminated indicate that he is a lot more likely to enter the draft than once thought, especially if his head coach Jeff Capel decides to leave for greener pastures (South Carolina?), which is looking more and more likely by the day apparently.
Eric Gordon, 6-3, Freshman, Shooting Guard, Indiana
It’s been a very difficult February and March for Eric Gordon, as he’s struggled badly with his shooting, hitting just 16 of his last 77 (21%) 3-pointers in his last 12 games. That slump did not magically snap as he went up against a tough Arkansas squad, and Gordon’s terrible shooting continued, hitting 3-15 from the field and 0-6 from behind the arc. Gordon hurt his wrist at the end of February as has not quite been the same since, although the ugly controversy surrounding former coach Kelvin Sampson being replaced by Dan Dakich probably didn’t help matters much either.
Neither has his shot selection, though…Gordon continued to heave up bowling balls from well beyond the NBA 3-point line (some of which weren’t even close), even though he obviously needed to get himself easier shots at the rim. When he did try and take the ball to the basket, though, he was often met by Arkansas 7-footer Steven Hill, who managed to send back at least three of his dunks. Gordon was forcing the issue inside the arc too, settling for tough fade-away jumpers with bigger and longer defenders draped all over him contesting his shot, and he had very little success on those either. The refs didn’t do him any favors, as he was called for a palming violation, a travel and two offensive fouls which could have gone either way. Gordon’s average ball-handling skills and lack of mid-range look like more and more of an issue these days—some scouts we spoke with are even questioning just how athletic he truly is, which we still somewhat disagree with. At this point, a lot of his problems seem to be mental, see him missing 4 of 6 free throws in this game as a perfect example, if the constant scowl he had on his face wasn’t a clear enough sign. That's really not a big surprise considering the turmoil Indiana has gone through, which has to have played a role in the slump he's in. Gordon should be able to rebound during the pre-draft process with some strong workouts and much needed positive PR, but there will be question marks about just how heavily to weigh the last 6 weeks of the regular season against the first 12 until he actually steps out on an NBA court.
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, Freshman, Center, Texas A&M
Texas A&M lost a very close matchup with UCLA, but that didn’t have all that much to do with DeAndre Jordan’s play. The freshman came off the bench and contributed 6 points, 4 rebounds and 4 turnovers in 15 minutes. He was immediately called for a moving screen violation right after entering the game, but seemed to be off to a good start after making one very fluid pivot move in the lane for a nice looking basket, and then scoring on an athletic offensive rebound put-back dunk. Things mostly went south after that, as he was called for his second offensive foul for hooking Lorenzo Mata-Real while trying to establish position in the paint, and then committed another turnover after being doubled-teamed in the post, not having the strength or reaction time to handle it quickly enough—which has been typical for Jordan this season. He did score another basket on an easy layup after his man left him alone underneath the basket to double-team someone on the perimeter, but was finally benched late in the game after a foolish turnover on a lazy cross-court pass, and two rejections he suffered underneath the rim courtesy of Kevin Love.
Defensively, things weren’t any better. He left his defender wide open for at least four wide open jump-shots, not hedging and recovering quickly or aggressively enough on pick and roll plays, and did a poor job denying position inside the paint, which gave Kevin Love a fairly easy jump-hook shot right over him. His lack of awareness was really exposed when he was supposed to switch on a screen and cover Darren Collison, but instead tried to get his teammate to switch back in mid-possession, and ended up giving up an easy 3-pointer.
Jordan did not finish off the season very well at all, scoring in double-digits just four times in all of January, February and March, after he was able to do so nine times in November and December. It’s pretty obvious by now that Jordan is a project with a capital P, one that will demand a great deal of nurturing and patience before he’s able to contribute much of anything in the NBA. He obviously needs another year in college to help prepare him for the pros, but the danger of not improving enough and damaging his stock badly may be too much to risk, even if it’s rumored that he is currently leaning towards staying. That’s the sad state of the NBA draft unfortunately. Jordan will have to develop a great work ethic and love for the game if he’s going to have any chance of achieving his great potential.
Chase Budinger, 6-7, Sophomore, SG/SF, Arizona
Budinger did a good job in this NCAA tournament game of not only being extremely productive, but also displaying better potential in various parts of the scouting report that were thought to be weaknesses. He was extremely aggressive for one looking for his shot and trying to make things happen, moving off the ball extremely well and showing absolutely no hesitation spotting up with his terrific stroke when an opportunity presented itself—which hasn’t always been the case this year to say the least. He also showed a little more versatility on the offensive end, handling the ball and finishing in transition, and beating his defender off the bounce with an aggressive slashing move on at least five separation occasions from what we counted, either getting fouled or scoring off the glass in the process. He scored 23 points on 8-13 shooting, adding 5 rebounds and 3 assists, and got to the free throw line seven times—a very nice all-around offensive performance to leave a good taste in scout’s mouths if he indeed decides to enter the draft.
The other end of the ball was a completely different story, though. Budinger struggled badly on virtually every defensive possession he was directly involved with, struggling to fight through screens, giving up too much space on the perimeter, not being very physical or aggressive, getting beat off the dribble due to his poor lateral quickness, and at times not even getting a hand up trying to contest shots. In the 10 defensive possessions we counted that he was directly responsible for, he got scored on nine times (giving up five 3-pointers, and one 3-point play), for a total of 24 points. The one “stop” he got (more due to his matchup missing an open look than any great defense) resulted in an offensive rebound and put-back for West Virginia. This part of his game is a big concern NBA scouts have with Budinger, and it’s something he must put more effort into at the next level.
Budinger came into this season sporting somewhat unrealistic expectations about the type of player he truly is, partially stemming from fact that Lute Olsen called him the “best freshman I ever coached.” Some were disappointed that he failed to assert himself as a go-to guy for Arizona, as that’s just not the player he is. Even though he couldn’t quite live up to the hype, he is still an excellent prospect, and will likely develop into an outstanding role player in the NBA. With Olsen now returning to Arizona after a year off, Budinger has a tough decision in front of him regarding whether to leave for the NBA. |
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| Book Review- Keith Glass: “Taking Shots” |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| March 20, 2008 |
With things calming down a bit as we wait for the NCAA tournament to kick off, we thought this might be as good a time as any to review arguably the best basketball book that came out in 2007, Keith Glass’ “Taking Shots,” which delves into the dark and crazy world of being an NBA agent.
Keith Glass has a unique perspective on the basketball industry, which he discusses in the opening chapters of “Taking Shots.” He grew up with NCAA and NBA coaching legend Larry Brown, who his father represented. He was also a high school for 18 years as well as an assistant coach at UCLA, and is best-known as a veteran NBA agent of players such as Mark Eaton, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, and more recently, Jackie Butler, Quincy Douby and Royal Ivey.
He’s been around the game for a while, in various capacities, and therefore has a lot to say about the many strange, sad, and funny situations he’s encountered in this crazy business. For anyone that loves the NBA (particularly the NBA draft) and is interested in learning more about the often not-so-pleasant side of things that go on behind the scenes, this book will be very interesting. For those looking to get into the industry…this book is basically a must-read. Being around agents, players, and NBA executives you often hear stories about what the league is like behind closed doors, but very rarely do you get to read a first-hand account that goes into all the nitty gritty details, with nothing held back in terms of names of people involved.
For example, in a very illustrative chapter, Glass reveals in great depth how New York Knicks General Manager Ernie Grunfeld guaranteed he would draft his client Efthimios Rentzias with the #18 overall pick in the 1996 draft. He goes onto to tell how Grunfeld not only reneged on drafting him at #18, but also did not take him at #19 or #21. As he goes pick by pick and discusses all the behind the scenes conversations he had with each team, you get a real sense for just how ugly and distrustful the basketball business can be at times.
Earlier, Glass writes about the ups and downs he enjoyed and suffered representing Robert Horry as a collegiate out of Alabama. Starting with his junior year, where Glass advises him to return to school for another season after he learns from NBA people that he is a “late first to early second round draft choice”, and continuing with his senior season, where he improved his draft stock, and then surprised people by being selected with the 11th overall pick in the 1992 draft. Glass landed Horry a 5-year deal for 5 million dollars, plus endorsements. While Horry was in the midst of winning his first two NBA championships, Glass discusses how he was being courted by a pair of brothers from Houston, agents who were trying to get Horry to fire Glass and sign with them instead. Houston offered a 7-year, 21 million extension at one point, and Glass recommended he not sign it, thinking they could do better if they waited. He never got that far, as he was indeed fired, while Horry went onto sign a 27 million dollar deal with the Lakers with the agents from Houston representing him. His price for “doing the right thing” and looking out for the best interests of his client rather than taking the money and running when the writing was on the wall that he might not be the one doing the contract? 4 percent of 21 million, or $840,000.
It’s a familiar story that we’ve heard numerous times from talking to people in the business, and is discussed in this book in great depth. The lack of trust between players and their agents and vice-versa, as well as the NBA teams. There are many more similar stories, which slowly paint a vivid picture of how cold-hearted the basketball world can be. He talks about the “cesspool” involved in recruiting NCAA players through runners, AAU coaches and such, as well as the influence that sneaker companies have over athletes and high school and college coaches. We hear about the sad story of Tommy Hamilton, a 7-4 center with unbelievable talent, but also without a shred motivation or self-discipline to take advantage of it. It’s all told in a pointy, cynical tone that evokes quite a few smiles when considering the irony usually involved in the ridiculous situations presented to us.
Not all is negative, though. There are also very humorous chapters discussing back-door negotiations Glass had with NBA teams over clients such as Mark Eaton, Chuck Nevitt and Scott Skiles, amongst others. The parts about the recruitment of Skiles and the time he spent playing and coaching in Greece is extremely informative and entertaining. His encounters with an odd-ball runner by the name of Greg (“he never thought of himself as a runner, he truly thought of himself as a guy who was helping kids”) are nothing short of hysterical.
There is much, much more of course, but you should do yourself a favor and go ahead and read it yourself. The paperback version of the book came out recently. |
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| Blogging through Championship Week (Part Five) |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President, Joseph Treutlein - Assistant Director of Scouting |
| March 18, 2008 |
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A comprehensive run-down of all the notable performances from this past weekend with NBA draft implications, including the Big 12, ACC, and Conference USA finals. Darren Collison, Mario Chalmers, Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur, Jerome Jordan, Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Blake Griffin, K.C. Rivers, Ty Lawson and others are included.
Jonathan Givony
Darren Collison- As we predicted a few days ago, Collison indeed ended up being named the MVP of the Pac-10 tournament, leaving no doubt in anyone’s mind after his 28 point, 3 assist, 0 turnover performance in the final against Stanford.
Collison is making a case for himself to be considered the most complete point guard in the NCAA if you take what happens on both ends of the floor into consideration. He was incredibly under control setting the tempo of the game as always, but always showed the confidence to go out and make things happen on his own when needed. He did a phenomenal job reading and using screens on the pick and roll all game long, changing speeds and directions with excellent quickness and footwork, and did a terrific job avoiding defenders and finishing spectacularly with his left hand, time after time.
Collison’s ball-handling skills are outstanding, splitting the double-team/traps Stanford tried to use defending UCLA’s ball-screens, and showing a masterful ability to compensate for his lack of height by pulling up off the dribble from mid-range or utilizing a pretty floater when things looked too crowded inside. He knew when to get his team out in transition and when to slow down and run their half-court sets, and hasn’t seemed to take a bad shot all season almost. He’s shooting a ridiculous 51% from 3-point range on the season (on 3 attempts per game), never attempting a shot from this range unless he’s truly open. He’s so unselfish that at times you wonder if he might be hurting his team a bit by not taking some of the opportunities he’s presented with.
There were some question marks that emerged during the season about who UCLA will turn to in critical moments when they need a basket at the end of shot clocks, and Collison is most certainly answering them. He wasn’t just a matter of one game or tournament, but it’s something he’s been doing repeatedly over the past month or so.
The big concern some scouts have about him, besides his size, is just how much weight he can put on. He seems to be really affected by the various bumps and screens he has to get through over the course of the game, and this problem could really be exasperated in the NBA, where everyone is so much bigger and stronger. With that said, it’s hard not to start thinking that he brings enough to the table to be considered a starting caliber point guard in the NBA, with some seasoning. Considering how good he is, and how incredibly well he’s playing leading arguably the best team in America into the NCAA tournament, he may not be the kind of guy you want to overanalyze too much.
Brandon Rush- Slowly, but surely, Brandon Rush seems to be working himself back into optimal shape, after taking off only 5 ½ months to recover from an ACL tear he suffered last summer. We’re starting to see that same terrific athlete flying up and down the court on a more consistent basis, and just at the right time as far as Kansas is concerned.
Rush strung together two impressive performances to help the Jayhawks win their third straight Big 12 conference tournament (netting himself MVP honors in the process), after one mediocre game to kick things off against Nebraska. He scored a career-high 28 points (9-13 FG, 5-8 3P) against Texas A&M in the semis, and then followed that up with 19 points (6-12 FG, 6-9 3P) in the finals against Texas, adding 6 assists for good measure.
Gone seemed to be that indecisiveness that plagued him throughout his college career, as he showed absolutely no hesitation hoisting up shots with his quick, fluid, effortless release as soon as he received an opportunity to do so. He was superb coming off screens, being very difficult to keep up with due to the speed in which he runs around the court, and looked just as smooth pulling up off the dribble out to 20 feet. It’s reaching the point that we might need to start considering him as one of the best perimeter shooters in the country—as his 43.4% on nearly 5 attempts per game from behind the arc indeed indicates.
He’s still not much of a shot-creator—his ball-handling skills are poor, he struggles to change directions due to his high center of gravity, and he seems to lack some aggressiveness going up strong at the rim trying to draw contact. Considering the fact that he’s a likely role-player at the next level—with the unselfish passing skills and team-oriented mentality that comes along with that, that might not be as great a concern as it once was.
Defensively, Rush has superb size and length on the wing, which helps him greatly in terms of contesting shots and coming up with plenty of blocks and steals in the process. He seems to have lost a degree of intensity, though, from what we could see in this tournament, not fighting through screens very well and getting beat too often off the dribble by smaller players. We’ll have to see how this part of his game looks in the NCAA tournament.
Barring a catastrophe, Rush will certainly be coming out this year and will not have the luxury of testing the waters after already doing so last year. His performance this past weekend in front of a horde of NBA executives bodes very well for his draft stock, and he has a real chance to continue to help himself with a strong NCAA tournament run.
Mario Chalmers- Chalmers had the best game of his career here in the Big 12 tournament finals, scoring 30 points on 10-15 shooting (8-12 3P), while dishing out 6 assists to go along with 4 rebounds, 2 turnovers and 2 steals. Chalmers is in the midst of a breakout season this year and is actually well overdue for a write-up.
Chalmers has made notable strides in his game in every season he’s been at KU so far, which is exactly what you want to see from a former McDonald’s All-American. His shooting percentages are way up (an incredibly impressive 52% from the field and 48% for 3), as are his assists, while his turnovers are down. Chalmers’ role in KU’s offense has decreased this season (most of his offense comes from spot-up and transition situations), but he’s become a much more efficient player, which is clearly a testament to his willingness to set aside his ego and stick strictly to what he’s best at for the betterment of his team. For someone who projects as a role player and likely backup at the next level, that’s a very encouraging sign.
Chalmers shares ball-handling duties on this squad with two other point guards in Russell Robinson and Sherron Collins. That helps mask many of his weaknesses, but also probably doesn’t give him as much of an opportunity to improve on them as he would elsewhere. If not running the floor in transition, Kansas runs an incredible amount of half-court sets, and Chalmers looks smart enough and more than willing to executes those plays crisply and get the ball to where it needs to be on the floor. He gets most of his 4.6 assists per game in this fashion, and the extremely low 2 turnovers he averages per game tells you all you need to know about how well he does at minimizing mistakes. Although he’s clearly not a pure point guard (he just doesn’t seem to have those type of instincts at the moment), he still ranks 6th amongst all players in our database in John Hollinger’s pure point ratio. The fact that he’s extremely unselfish, relatively mistake free and plays in a high-octane offense with excellent players around him all contributes heavily to that.
As a shooter, Chalmers is nothing short of fantastic, as indicated by his phenomenal 66% true shooting percentage, which ranks him 9th in our entire database in that category. He doesn’t take many bad shots, as we saw in the Big 12 tournament, where he knocked down 8 3-pointers, almost all of which were wide open looks with his feet set. He is absolutely outstanding when left open, and can also knock down shots off the dribble, although his percentages drop when doing so.
Defensively, Chalmers is one of the peskiest guards you’ll find in the NCAA, with his phenomenal length and timing that helped him average a Big-12 best 2.4 steals per game. Although he’s undersized at 6-1, his length really helps him out in this area, as he plays much bigger than his height and manages to contest nearly everything in his area. His lateral quickness is good, but not great, something that D.J. Augustin seemed to take advantage of at times in this game, but this probably isn’t something to be overly concerned about.
Chalmers’ biggest weaknesses as an NBA prospect revolve around his average athleticism and ball-handling skills, which makes him fairly ineffective as a shot-creator at the point guard position. He struggles going right, doesn’t have much of a mid-range game, and often looks out of control on his way to the basket, not being much of a finisher at the hoop due to his clear lack of explosiveness at the rim. This, combined with his underdeveloped playmaking instincts are a pretty big knock against his pro potential, but he should still be able to overcome his deficiencies and develop into a quality backup considering how many other things he brings to the table.
Darrell Arthur- Arthur has been one of the most inconsistent draft prospects we’ve followed over the past few months, often following up one good performance with two bad ones, and then getting back on track the next game as if nothing happened. As we’ve expressed in the past when evaluating him, very few of our concerns with Arthur revolve around his physical tools or skill-set…for him, it’s all about the mental aspect of the game and whether the light bulb is on on any particular day.
In this particular game, Arthur showed up, and in a big way, to the tune of 16 points and 9 rebounds. That was huge for KU’s chances of defeating Texas in the Big 12 tournament final, particularly with Darnell Jackson rendered ineffective with foul trouble.
Arthur showed why many think so highly of him in terms of his pure talent, displaying fabulous footwork coming up with a couple of outstanding pivot moves in the post, phenomenal touch knocking down turnaround jumpers, and superb athleticism running the floor and finishing explosively inside the paint. He played a big role in picking apart Texas’ zone defense, slipping right into the sweet spot around the free throw line and either knocking down a 15-foot jumper, making a pretty post-entry pass, or moving the ball around the perimeter sharply to keep KU’s offense flowing smoothly.
Defensively, Arthur seemed to be trying to avoid the ticky-tack foul problems that have plagued him all season and played a huge role in his struggles staying on the court for Kansas. He did show very quick feet hedging screens on the perimeter, though, which is very nice to have from your power forward in today’s pick and roll infatuated NBA. Despite the 9 rebounds he pulled down, we again saw why he struggles so badly in this area, as he still suffers those mental lapses forgetting to box out his opponents. Last time we checked up on him, he ranked 79th in rebounding per 40 minutes pace adjusted. He’s now moved up to 58th, which is better, but still fairly disappointing for a player with his combination of terrific length, athleticism and hands. He’s also improved his passing and assist to turnover ratio, which is good to see.
More than most players in this draft, who already typically have a decent body of work to fall back on from the regular season, Darrell Arthur could use a strong NCAA tournament showing to quell some of the many concerns about him. If he can’t show better effort, focus and all-around consistency in what will be the most important games of his basketball career thus far, he will give decision marks some serious room for pause when it comes time to evaluate his draft stock.
Josh Shipp- Shipp’s performance in front of dozens of high level executives at this tournament seems to indicate that he might not be anything more than a fringe NBA player at best. His overall profile as a prospect does not look very strong these days, as he is extremely limited athletically, lacking quickness and explosiveness and therefore being unable to create his own shot. His biggest strength, his perimeter shooting, is proving to be an average skill at best, as he’s shooting only 34% from behind the arc (29% in conference play) after the 31% he shot last season. The fact that he’s just too slow laterally to defend anyone seals the deal here pretty much.
Joseph Treutlein
Jerome Jordan- A mobile seven footer that’s largely gone under the radar to this point, the sophomore really turned it on to close the season, averaging 16.3 points, 12 rebounds, and 4.8 blocks over his final six games, though he also averaged an impressive 3.7 blocks per game for the season, in just 25 minutes per game.
Jordan had a good showing against Memphis, even though his team wasn’t in the game from the start, scoring 17 points along with 9 rebounds and 4 blocks. His first offensive possession left me shaking my head, as he caught the ball on the deep right block, matched with Joey Dorsey, and strangely tried to drop-step baseline, looking very awkward and traveling with the ball as he simply had nowhere to go. Later in the game, it became clear what he was trying to do, as he went back to the same move twice. On these next two attempts, though, Jordan executed the drop-step and got underneath the rim, finishing with a reverse lay-up on one attempt and a reverse dunk on the other, showing off just how mobile and long he really is.
While the moves were pretty impressive, it’s worth noting the third one came in the game’s final minutes when Memphis had emptied the bench and Jordan had a 6’8, 300 pounder guarding him in Memphis’ Pierre Niles., who didn’t really try to defend the move. Also, it’s a bit strange that a player with his physical tools and fairly raw overall post game would have a move of this difficulty as his go-to move. It’s also puzzling how Jordan kept going to the deep right block to get position, when he didn’t show any moves off his right shoulder (though he faked it multiple times), yet never tried to post up on the deep left block, where with his size, he could consistently utilize a hook shot across the lane that would be pretty much unblockable. Looking at his post game as a whole, he has nice touch and clearly has a lot of potential, but it’d be nice to see him develop some better post awareness in his future and make better use of simpler, easier moves that he could abuse defenses with.
As for the rest of his offensive game, Jordan got open around the rim to finish with his size and touch often, notably finishing on one alley-oop dunk where he showed very nice coordination, and he also hit a right-handed hook shot off the glass from the right block on one occasion. He didn’t show any mid-range game, though he’s shooting a decent 69% on free throw attempts on the season, and his shooting form doesn’t look bad. Continuing to improve on his free throws and rounding out his post game should be among his priorities offensively moving forward.
On the defensive end, Jordan showed excellent timing on his shot blocks, using his great length and size to consistently patrol the painted area. His elevation isn’t great, but his mobility and size make up for that, and he’s clearly not at his athletic peak yet, not having much muscle mass. His shoulders aren’t particularly broad, so he’ll be someone limited in how much bulk he can add, but he still can improve significantly here. With man-to-man defense, Jordan looked good in the post, contesting and blocking shots with his length, but he didn’t show much in terms of fundamentals, not really bodying up and mostly relying on his shot-blocking abilities.
All in all, Jordan is an extremely raw and extremely intriguing player, and it’ll be interesting to watch him develop in the next two seasons. He still has a long ways to go on all aspects of the game, but with his size and length, he obviously has the potential to play in the NBA when it’s all said and done, and maybe even more than that if he makes some serious strides this summer.
Derrick Rose- Not the greatest setting to evaluate his game, given the level of competition, there really isn’t much new to say about Rose here. He showed off how much more explosive he was than the competition, and he dished out some assists in the flow of Memphis’ offense, but two plays in particular for Rose stood out in this game. On one, he rebounded the ball on the defensive end and quickly pushed it ahead in transition himself, getting from end to end easily and finishing on his own with a right-handed floater. On another, he got back in transition defense to block the shot of a guard on the other team, then got in position to draw a charge from another play on the opposing team who came in for the offensive rebound; he didn’t get the call, but he then soared up over both of them to secure the rebound himself. It’s pretty clear that Rose is on another level athletically when compared with the rest of the NCAA.
Chris Douglas-Roberts- Played a very efficient game, barely touching the ball and quickly scoring every time he did, hitting two spot-up three-pointers and an array of floaters in the lane, pulling up off either dribble, off a crossover, and even one with his left hand.
Antonio Anderson- Had an excellent game, hitting an uncharacteristic 4-for-5 from deep and showing off his explosive first step in the half-court and in transition, finishing at the rim on multiple occasions. Also dished out some nice assists, showing his versatility. Anderson will have a chance to step into a feature role next year with Dorsey and likely Rose and Douglas-Roberts all heading do the NBA, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the role, given that he hasn’t exactly been very efficient as a complementary player over the past three seasons.
Blake Griffin- Had a strong game with 20 points and 13 rebounds, though his team was blown out by Texas. Did most of his damage by using his great athleticism with a combination of post moves. Mostly relied on a right-handed hook shot, though he missed with it at least four times, which didn’t faze him, as he managed to get the offensive rebound and the putback on most of those misses, showing an outstanding second leap. Also showed some nice spin moves, which he executes with exceptional quickness, scoring once on a face-up and once on a post-up attempt. While Griffin mostly relies on simple moves in the post, he occasionally will show off an incredible sequence of moves and countermoves, and the speed at which he transitions between his moves and counters is truly at an elite level. This, in combination with his elevation and overall athleticism, will make him a truly dangerous post player if he continues to improve his awareness and array of moves. Since suffering some more knee problems, Griffin has recently hedged on his initial pledge to stay at Oklahoma next season regardless of what happens this season. It will be interesting to see how things play out here, as he would have a strong case to be considered a lottery pick or even go top-10 would he decide to enter the draft.
K.C. Rivers- Had a truly outstanding game in Clemson’s hard-fought loss against powerhouse UNC in the ACC tournament finals, doing everything he could for his team and showing off all of his various skills on a big stage. Rivers had 28 points on 9-for-20 shooting, including 6-for-12 from deep, and he also chipped in 8 rebounds and 6 steals. Clemson employed their aggressive pressing defense all game long, and Rivers was a huge part of that obviously, using his length, athleticism, and reflexes to steal six possessions for his team, and causing at least one forced turnover with a deflection as well. In the half-court offense, Rivers was very much Clemson’s go-to scorer, getting it done in a variety of ways, but most notably with his outside shot. He hit several shots with a very high degree of difficulty, coming off screens, pulling up, and fading away, often with a hand in his face. When Clemson was on the verge of falling out of the game, Rivers was usually the one to come up with a big shot to keep them alive. Rivers also attacked the basket well, driving in both directions, finishing at the rim, and getting to the free throw line. Rivers will have more opportunities on the main stage in the NCAA Tournament, where Clemson has first and second round draws against Villanova and Vanderbilt, two teams they are certainly capable of beating. There is not a whole lot of buzz around his name at the moment, and a strong tournament showing could go a long ways in changing that.
Wayne Ellington- Played an excellent game for UNC in a game that very much suited his strengths. Scored 24 points on 10-for-13 shooting, while also chipping in 4 points and 4 rebounds. Ellington did very well getting ahead on the break and in up-tempo situations, catching the ball on the wing in transition and taking advantage of Clemson defenders that were still hustling back to get into position, due to their hard pressing. When the ball came to him, Ellington went to quick work, making smart decisions without hesitation, taking the ball to the rim, pulling up from mid-range, spotting up from long-range, or dishing the ball off to an open teammate.
Ty Lawson- Still recovering from injury and getting up to full speed, Lawson had a pretty good game considering the matchup. With Clemson pressing full court most of the game, it really is impressive that Lawson managed to keep UNC’s offense going so well, considering he was often the only really good ball-handler on the floor. It’s not as if Lawson was flawless breaking the press, but his 8 assists against 4 turnovers against a team this athletic and relentless when he was often the only ball-handler on the floor is an accomplishment, and UNC did win the game. Lawson did a good job dribbling out of trouble and throwing passes three quarters the length of the court to open teammates ahead of the pack when necessary, leading to some easy buckets in the game. In the halfcourt, Lawson wasn’t as smooth, not showing off much drive-and-dish ability and struggling when penetrating into the lane in general, getting his shot blocked a few times. He’s still not quite at 100%, but considering how well Clemson matches up with UNC, he did a pretty good job running the show in this game. |
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| Top NCAA Tournament Individual Player Matchups |
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| by: Jonathan Givony - President |
| March 17, 2008 |
We know which teams will be going head to head, but what will the most intriguing individual player matchups be this coming weekend? Who stands the most to gain or lose?
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Davon Jefferson/Taj Gibson vs. Michael Beasley, #6 USC vs. #11 Kansas State (Thursday)
This is likely where many NBA scouts and executives will head to on Thursday, for a matchup involving two top 5 picks in O.J. Mayo and Michael Beasley. While the two won’t be defending each other directly, Beasley will have quite a handful to deal with as he goes up against a pair of similarly sized athletes in Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson. Jefferson in particular is the type of long-armed combo forward who can give Beasley problem if he’s focused on the task at hand for every minute he’s on the floor, which has typically not always been the case. Jefferson is quick enough to get out on the perimeter and contest Beasley’s shots in the mid-range and on the perimeter, but is strong and explosive enough to handle him down low about as well as you can hope for. He’ll have another long-armed athlete with terrific timing as a weak-side shot-blocker in Taj Gibson to help him out as well. Considering that both players are highly likely to put their name in the draft and keep it in due to various reasons (age, academic, etc)—they could not have asked for a better showcase to help them with their cause. While you're at it, don't forget about O.J. Mayo's best friend Bill Walker in this game too...he plays power forward and will match up with Jefferson or Gibson himself.
Trent Plaisted vs. DeAndre Jordan, #8 BYU vs. #9 Texas A&M (Thursday)
Here we have two excellent athletes with very nice long-term potential going head to head, who could both really use a boost to their draft stock for various reasons. Plaisted made a name for himself early this year with fantastic back to back outings against North Carolina and Louisville, but lost some of his shine as BYU faded into the obscurity of the Mountain West conference. DeAndre Jordan also started off the season in promising fashion, but has really struggled to be consistently productive ever since. He missed the exposure of being in front of numerous NBA executives who showed up at the Big 12 conference tournament in part to watch him play, as a case of food poisoning relegated him to only 9 minutes in three games. Plaisted and Jordan will be matching up with each other at the center position, and both are heavily rumored to be considering entering this year’s draft. It will be interesting to see how they step up to the plate. An important matchup with Kevin Love and UCLA looms for the winner of this contest.
Joe Alexander vs. Chase Budinger, #7 West Virginia vs. #10 Arizona (Thursday)
Let’s not beat around the bush here…this individual matchup is intriguing partially because it involves two future NBA players at the small forward position who are not only uncommonly athletic, but also both happen to be white. Once you get past that, though, you realize that there are some pretty big differences between the two. For one, Alexander plays the power forward position almost exclusively on this undersized West Virginia team, while Budinger sees most of his time at the 3, but will slide over to the 4 at times as well. Budinger makes his living primarily by spotting up and coming off screens, where he is terrific shooting the ball from behind the arc, while Alexander is used in a lot of isolation and post-up situations, excelling more as a mid-range shooter. Both of their teams will be counting heavily on them for production, and it will be important for them not to fade as they’ve both been known to do at times in their career. Budinger will likely be declaring for the draft and could really use the boost to his stock that a strong performance can provide-- while Alexander was always viewed as more of a 09 prospect, until he recently strung together a number of fantastic performances that began to make people wonder whether he’ll end up in this year’s draft instead. Ironically, the winner of this matchup will face another highly touted white guy in a somewhat similar mold, in Duke’s Kyle Singler.
Josh Young vs. Courtney Lee, #5 Drake vs. #12 Western Kentucky (Friday)
There will be a stark contrast in styles here. Drake is one of the most efficient offenses in America, a slow-paced, three-point shooting team that runs a unique zone defense and rarely turns the ball. Western Kentucky is very athletic and likes to play at a much faster pace. Both teams are very experienced and highly guard-oriented. Western Kentucky has one of the best swingmen in the entire country in Courtney Lee, while Drake’s Josh Young is the #1 scorer in the Missouri Valley conference and an up and coming star at the collegiate level in just his sophomore season. Both are excellent shooters and athletes at the shooting guard position, although Lee has superior size at 6-5 compared with Young at just 6-1. This will clearly be an all-around team effort for both sides, but the scouts will have their eyes on these two mid-major stars. For Lee it’s particularly important to have a good game after a somewhat underwhelming conference tournament. The winner of this matchup will likely face Connecticut, another game that will be heavily scouted.
Sam Young vs. Raymar Morgan, #4 Pitt vs. #5 Michigan State (Saturday?)
This is probably not going to be a pretty game (if Pitt advances past #13 Oral Roberts and Michigan State defeats #12 Temple), as both of these teams are known for grinding it out offensively and putting a big emphasis on playing tough D. Two guys who really epitomize the toughness that their coaches demand are their power forwards—Raymar Morgan and Sam Young. Both project as small forwards at the next level, but operate as hybrid types because of their rebounding and unpolished perimeter skills (as well as their team’s undersized frontlines). Young is riding particular high these days after winning Big East conference tournament MVP honors. He could really use the spotlight that the Sweet 16 provides to help his cause and solidify his stock as a bonafide first round pick, so moving on from this matchup would be very helpful. Morgan is more of a 09 draft prospect at best, but it never hurts to have a big game in the NCAA tournament, where plenty of eyes will be on him.
Tyler Hansbrough vs. D.J. White, #1 North Carolina vs. #8 Indiana (Sunday?)
Should Indiana (underrated badly as an 8 seed) be able to overcome Arkansas in the first round as expected, they will meet North Carolina in what promises to be one of the most high-quality matchups of opening weekend. While Eric Gordon will have an extremely difficult task on his hands going up against the likes of Marcus Ginyard, Danny Green and Quinton Thomas—it will be the Tyler Hansbrough/D.J. White matchup that will likely decide who wins this game. White will have to show that he has the strength and athleticism to contain Hansbrough in the paint, while still finding a way to give his team serious production on the other end of the floor. He stands a lot to gain, as he would definitely be well served generating some buzz around his name going into the draft process.
Chris Lofton/JaJuan Smith vs. Mike Green/A.J. Graves, #2 Tennessee vs. #7 Butler (Sunday?)
If Butler can get past South Alabama, we’ll be treated to a fascinating matchup on Sunday that promises to be a stark clash of styles, between two terrific teams. Tennessee is an up-tempo, aggressive, and athletic team that relies heavily on pressure defense and forcing turnovers. Butler is a slower-paced and extremely experienced squad that plays methodical basketball and likes to run down the shot clock and shoot plenty of three pointers. The engines that make these teams go are their backcourts, four seniors who will be meeting up early next month once again at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament. Green is the one to keep the eye on the most possibly, as he’s a tough as nails lead guard from Philly who gets to the free throw line and rebounds the ball incredibly well, but is also an excellent distributor from the PG position. Both him and JaJuan Smith have some similarities, as do Graves and Lofton, two players who rely heavily on their outside shot. Don’t miss this game if it indeed goes through.
Shan Foster vs. K.C. Rivers, #4 Vanderbilt vs. #5 Clemson (Sunday?)
Provided the favored seeds hold serve in Tampa, and Vandy beats Siena while Clemson holds off Villanova, then we should have quite a treat on our hands on Sunday. Both teams are led by their upperclassmen wing players, Rivers for Clemson (a junior) and the more heralded Foster (a senior) for Vanderbilt. Both players rely heavily on their outside shot for production, although Rivers is more versatile on both ends of the floor, while Foster is nothing short of an assassin from behind the arc. Both seem to be flying under the radar to a certain extent, which can change very quickly if they can find their stroke here in the tournament.
Jarvis Varnado vs. Memphis’ Dribble-Drive Motion Offense, #8 Mississippi State vs. #1 Memphis (Sunday?)
If Mississippi State can take down Oregon, their reward will be playing the top-seeded Memphis Tigers in Little Rock, Arkansas, somewhat of a home game for both teams. John Calipari’s Memphis squad utilizes one of the more interesting offenses in the NCAA, the dribble-drive motion offense, which apparently has become all the rage these days at all levels of basketball. Their attack focuses heavily on aggressive dribble-drive plays started with mini-lateral passes thrown to any of their four slashers coming from the wing. Getting their players dribbling in stride instead of having them explode off their first step with a ball-screen proves to be very difficult for defenders to stop while on their heels—unless the opposing team has an intimidating shot-blocker in the paint to stop them. That’s where having the #1 shot-blocker in the country could come in extremely handy for Mississippi State, and could be a fantastic opportunity for Jarvis Varnado to announce his presence on a national stage against arguably the best team in college basketball. |
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