Brazilian NT chances in Japan

[Aton]

Hey there,

I know it's a little bit early for this, but I'm very curious to hear if anyone has something to say about Brazilian national team chances in the World Championship in Japan. After the brazilian qualification and the european championship, the man that runs the brazilian basketball confederation was quoted saying that "european squads haven't been playing well and that Brazil had a strong chance of securing a medal in Japan". Since I really hate the guy, I gave him no credit at all. But lately I have been wondering... maybe he has a point.

So what do you guys think? It would be nice to get some feedback from people that know the other countries much better. Besides, I may get of kind carried away when thinking about my nation's chances. I haven't watched many games of the brazilian national tournaments, so my fellow countrymen are also welcomed to add some info.

List of players that may be called for the team:

4's and 5's:

- Tiago Splitter: playing great in Europe. Could be the best post defender of the tournament. Starting to put up some numbers on offense too. Will most likely have a bigger role on the offensive end while playing for Brazil, and should look more confident doing that. Grabs some rebounds too. More info here: http://draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=25.
- Andreson Varejão: brings up a lot of energy on defense and gets lots of rebounds. No consistency on offense (despite having a little bit of talent and will to score points), specially after joining the Cavs. Is all over the floor.
- JP Batista: a 20-10 player on NCAA, will probably have a much better chance of making an impact playing for the brazilian squad than in the NBA. Could be the best post player for most of the teams playing the tournament, but will have to fight for minutes off the bench.
- Rafael "Baby" Araujo: adds quite a bit of size. Can get rebounds and defend. Looks terrible doing anything else. I'm not sure if he would make the team if I were the coach.
- Estevam: the most polished and experienced post player of the team. Very good body: has size, explosiveness and muscles, but nothing that excels though. Not sure if he will make the team, but I hope he does.
- Murilo Becker: not much to say, good size, great asset if you consider that he's another 5 fouls to give and can cheer the other guys up in the bench.
- Nenê: probably the team's best player. Will probably refuse to play. If he does play, may mess up the team chemistry.

3's:

- Guilherme Giovanonni: a warrior, but seems like his carrer has gone downhill. Gets some rebounds and scores well, but his role has diminished lately. Defends with effort, but not enough to make him good at it. Is experienced when compared to his teammates.
- Marcelo Machado: the MVP of the Worlds qualify, with averages of about 20 pts, 6 rebounds and 6 assists (fought for the leadership in that category). Shoots a lot (even when he's not making it), gets some rebounds and does a little bit of play-making. But hell, he can mess your whole ball movement to do that. Brings up experience. Pionneer of the "Brazilian Invasion", tooks his chances in NBA try-outs when no one knew Nenê, but didn't make it.
- Marquinhos Vinicius de Souza: quite an interesting project, but will look very raw. Some more info here: http://draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=50.
- Renato: good outside shooter.

2's:

- Alex Garcia: played some time in the NBA, but had more injuries than results. Now back in Brazil, but isn't exactly averaging 30pts-10rebs-10asst, which is what NBA material should do playing here. Will probably guard the other team's best perimeter player, and do it well.

1's:

- Leandrinho Barbosa: one of the greatest scoring threats in the tournament. Can play some D. There will be no one able to keep up with his speed. Not a great playmaker, but will create some opportunities for his teammates.
- Nezinho: quick but undersized. Reasonable playmaker, doesn't turn the ball over much. Can shoot, but Guilherme, Marcelo and Leandrinho are all better at it than him. Not a bad player, not a good one either.
- Valtinho: much better than Nezinho.
- Marcelo Huertas: is getting very few minutes in Europe. More info here: http://draftexpress.com/viewprofile.php?p=29.


Team's strengths:

- Chemistry: the core of the team has played together for some years now. All players are role-players in their clubs, except Marcelo Machado.
- Inside deffense: the best inside deffense of the tournament.
- Rebounding
- Frontcourt depth
- Offense: great on the fastbreak, good from outside, very talented on the inside.


Team's weaknesses:

- Poor coaching and management
- Group lacks experience in winning tough games.
- Inside scoring lacks consistency, as Splitter and Varejão (and even Nenê) usually aren't given important roles on offense. That will probably change a little bit as they're playing for Brazil, but the offense will still be perimeter-oriented.
- Perimeter defence.

[11player]

You pretty much listed everybody there but I would also like to add some players with an outside shot at making the team:

Jeferson Sobral, SF, 6'8, athletic, good rebounder, inconsistent;

Diego de Souza, SG, 6'5, athletic, scorer, poor defender;

Edu, SF/SG, 6'5, hustler heart player, good defender and rebounder, athletic, streaky shooter;

Daniel Caçamba, PG, 6'3, big and thick point guard, floor general, good skills, lacks quickness, unproven at international level;

Guilherme, PG, 6'3, a floor general, good half court player, lacks quickness, unproven at international level;

Fulvio, PG, 6'1, steady point guard, tends to shoot a little too much, unproven at international level;

Rodrigo "manteiguinha", 6'3, PG/SG, not much of a playmaker or defender, but usually makes good offensive decisions, lacks athleticism, good shooter, injury prone;

In my opinion the brazilian medal chances will rest on their ability to play defense, find playmakers and convince players like Nene and Marquinhos to play.

In last year's Tourney of the Americas it was obvious the team's lack of a playmaker as Leandrinho is more of a SG and Huertas and Nezinho never showed up to play.

Marcelo Machado is a liability at defense and has to put his 3pt shooting under control.

In general, the thing is to overcome the low basketball IQ that hurts most of the players and stop waisting roster spots with young players who can't contribute at all to the team.

Another aspect I would like to state and in serious need of change are the poor training conditions the NT players have to deal with. Last year they didn't have a gym to practice, so they had to go a private club and were allowed only a few hours per day of training. The practice material was scarce, there were no clothes that would fit Araujo's big body, no private wheight room, no conditions at all, a joke, a total shame. For that Nene said he is not playing for the NT until it's changed and I can see others starting to go the same route.

[wardjdim]

Let's see if u guys can make it in the 2nd round first...
Your perimeter play is not good or deep enough to secure that, although I always thought that this frontline can be among the best in the tournament. Definitely not enough though. Plus, the group is ridiculously open and the top-16 game brings Group C teams against the USA/Slovenia/Puerto Rico/Italy combination. Tough to talk about medals yet. Anyways, great potential.
I also wanted to say that u overrate Batista a bit. It's not an age issue, after all, the majority of your guys are young, but Batista is too inexperienced in the international game to talk about him being "the best post player for most of the teams playing the tournament".

[11player]

sure, making it to the second round will not be easy. I just meant that any medal chances would have to go through Nene and Marquinhos, unless somebody steps up miraculouslly, otherwise there is no hope at all.
Even then, with Nene and Marquinhos, Brazil's NT would have to improve dramatically from the level of play they showcased in the past years.

[KristianH]

If this team would have legit floor general who could things work they could play very well. Barbosa is explosive scoring guard, not a playmaker. If this team had Pablo Prigioni or guy like that they would have outside shot at medal

[11player]

You know, in past competitions Brazil had always some important players missing. The closest team to the best we have was the one that played in the olympics qualifying in Puerto Rico where we fell short of qualifying after losing by 2 pts to Argentina and Puerto Rico and by 4 to Canadá, but that team was really young at that time.

I would like to see what the team could do with full force, it's intriguing.
It doesn't seem like it's gonna happen though.

[Aton]

Let's see if u guys can make it in the 2nd round first...
Your perimeter play is not good or deep enough to secure that, although I always thought that this frontline can be among the best in the tournament. Definitely not enough though. Plus, the group is ridiculously open and the top-16 game brings Group C teams against the USA/Slovenia/Puerto Rico/Italy combination. Tough to talk about medals yet. Anyways, great potential.


Wise words man. I also think that the tournament as a whole is ridiculously open. I would say Argentina (definately the favorite) and USA are really the only ones that are a level above the competition, and even USA can brings us all kinds of surprises. A medal in Japan should really be a long shot, but maybe that will change in the olympics. My point is that almost every country an important weakness, so the opportunity is there. I agree with you though: tough to talk about medals yet.

About perimeter play, I think it's good enough (but inconsistent) on offense, but on defense it's definately behind the competition.

I was hoping to get some help breaking down Brazilian chances against the strongest squads. I'll start with the 1st round group, then the top 16 game and finally the best nations left. I'm going to focus on our opportunities, maybe you guys can focus on our weakness. Keep in mind that I know very little of many of those teams, so don't get angry at me. =)

1st round group:

Australia: don't know much about them.
Greece: euro champions. It seems that they have a big weakness: scoring points, so we may have a chance here.
Lithuania: excellent team. How Jasikevicius and Macijauskas will be in the tournament is a question, as they aren't getting much playing time this year.
Qatar: i'll consider this one a W.
Turkey: very talented, but poor chemistry led to horrible outcome in the european tournament.
Optimistic predition: Brazil beats either Greece or Lithuania and secures a top 2 finish in the group.


Top 16:

China: without Yao should be an easy W. With Yao? I think Brazil is still better
Italy: I heard that most of the players that got that medal in the olympics retired from the national team, so I don't know how they look right now.
Puerto Rico: in the tournament of americas, Brazil (missing almost of its frontcourt) finished first, Puerto Rico didn't even qualify for the World Championship. So I'm putting a W here.
Senegal: will they still be playing the in the top 16?
Slovenia: have very little idea of who they have
US: they are the favorites of course, but the US NT has been a big question mark lately, so anything is possible. Anyway, I expect them to finish first in the group and that we avoid playing against them.
Predition: only US is clearly a favorite, and I think Brazil would be the favorite against any from the rest.


The rest (groups A and B):

Argentina: we lose against them.
France: judging from a Suns x Spurs game I saw some days ago, Barbosa can stop Parker. The problem will be guarding all those wing players: Diaw, Pietrus, Rigadeau, two of them very good defenders themselves. Not a very good frontcourt though.
Serbia & Montenegro: more talent than any other team, except for the US. Chemistry is a big question mark though, and I'm predicting that will kill them.
Germany: I think it's a good matchup for Brazil. Varejão and Splitter can guard Nowitzki almost as much as it possible to do it, and the rest of the team is just terrible, so I think we win this one.
Spain: my favorites to win the bronze medal.

I also wanted to say that u overrate Batista a bit. It's not an age issue, after all, the majority of your guys are young, but Batista is too inexperienced in the international game to talk about him being "the best post player for most of the teams playing the tournament".

I made a mistake. I was thinking that he is good enough to be the starting 5 or 4 on most of the teams. He would start for 15-19 teams in the tournament.

[wardjdim]

Yeah, it is a ridiculously open tournament. At the end of the day, I wouldnt risk to call even the US team as a team one level above the competition (the PG depth is inexistent here, plus I m not sure whether coach K is a proper decision for them). However, a medal in Japan is a long shot, but not only for Brazil. This high level tournament, along with the potential (mainly Lithuanian) absences and (the Italian) additions comes to meet an unexpectedly unfair draw, which makes it so tough to call a team a favorite even in its own group. If I wanted to risk it, I would only call Spain a clear cut favorite for group B and this, only given that Gasol will play (is very likely though) and Navarro appears as motivated as in Beograd. Not to mention any team's chances in the knock out games..

I was hoping to get some help breaking down Brazilian chances against the strongest squads. I'll start with the 1st round group, then the top 16 game and finally the best nations left. I'm going to focus on our opportunities, maybe you guys can focus on our weakness. Keep in mind that I know very little of many of those teams, so don't get angry at me. =)
Concerning the match-ups:
Australia's game will much depend on Andersen's health. I believe he will be ready by then. These guys are not even discussing to stay out of the top16. They were left out 2 years ago in Athens and they are clearly a great team to be left out. Andersen, Bogut, Anstey, Nielsen are slightly better than the Nene, Splitter, Varejao, Batista combination, but your perimeter play is better, so I can give you a slight advantage here, although this is almost even.

Greece? I dont know man. I think I am subjective sometimes and you are right about them not scoring many points. I believe that their perimeter is much better and that they are very experienced to let Papadopoulos exposed defensively in the frontline. I dont underrate Greece's frontline either. The same Australian frontline was dominated by them 2 years ago, but I will be reluctant and call it even in the paint. I will go with Greece in this one.

Lithuania's game will depend on Saras-Macas. But, there is still much underestimation of their current roster. Some of their players have had great seasons in Euroleague (especially Darjus Lavrinovic and steady Javtokas) and I believe that their frontcourt is among the best in the competition. Even without the guard duo, I am still scared of them beating Greece in the round game, so? I go with Lithuania

Qatar: Hmmm. No comment here. Get your back up players some good minutes and give yr starters some rest

Well, the chemistry in Turkey starts with the coach. Most fans don't like him and be sure that the recent outcome is not picturing the reality. Imagine a Turkish frontcourt of Okur, Turkcan, Peker and Kuqo. Not to mention the many talented players they are constantly adding in the perimeter. Of course, the lack of a good PG can hurt them, but I wouldnt bet on anyone in this matchup.

Optimistic outcome: 3rd place (although, it's a tournament and a wide open one). Pessimistic: 5th place.

The D Group teams?
China: Yes, I agree, you beat them, even with Yao right now.

Italy: I didnt hear that. It all depends on Recalcati. I hope that he decides a refreshment. Bargnani, Bellineli, Gigli, Mancinelli should get PT. Even then, it's not a lock. 60-40 Brazil

Puerto Rico: They lack your depth in the frontcourt, but their backcourt is definitely better. I think that in the present situation of International basketball, nobody can compare tournament teams with past ones so easily. I believe it's a 50-50 one, especiallyin both Arroyo and Ayuso play.

Senegal: No, I dont think they re qualifyin for the top16, but even then, u can beat them anyday if u meet them.

Slovenia: well, it all depends on their character. They comfortably beat both Greece and France in Beograd, but they lost to Germany in the quarters. These three teams were the 3 medal winners last summer, so u can see the ups and downs in their game. Their roster is a top-5 in the world. No mark here, as Slovenia is an unpredictable team.

USA: Maybe u have some chances. I think it's 60-40 for them, but not as a long shot as one may think. Barbosa is a key here, as will be US's PG in that case. The frontcourts, I find them nicely balanced.

Other teams:
Argentina: Yeah, probably you lose against them, but for no other reason than international game experience and perimeter depth, because, when it comes to frontcourt, you are a bit better on paper.

France: Sure, your frontcourt will be better, but these kids are gaining experience and Diaw can play any position in any type of competition atm. I would like to see Joakim Noah added in this squad to make their frontline more flexible. The issue is that Parker (btw, Rigaudeau has retired) is never gonna be this team's best player with Diaw in, so u better focus on him. France 60-40.

Serbia: Yeah, sure they are talented and screwed at the same time. I have no clue about their roster. Incomplete..

Germany is no good match-up for anyone. Ask the much much more talented and deep Slovenia. 50-50.

Spain: The best team of the tournament if you want my opinion. I think they are an incredible team, built on the rules of modern international ball. I find it difficult for them to lose even one game after the draw. It seems as it is their turn this year.

[wardjdim]

I made a mistake. I was thinking that he is good enough to be the starting 5 or 4 on most of the teams. He would start for 15-19 teams in the tournament.
I dont wanna end up being an a$$ here, but Batista would definitely NOT start for: Argentina, Serbia, Spain, Australia, Greece, Lithuania, Turkey, Brazil (well, I hope not..), Puerto Rico, Slovenia, USA. This is 11 teams
He would PROBABLY not start for: France, Germany, New Zeland, Italy and maybe even China, if Yao is hypothetically in. 5 more teams.
Batista would start for the 8 weakest teams of the tournament. If u wanna risk it, u can say 8-10 teams. Not more...

[Genjuro]

Lithuania's game will depend on Saras-Macas. But, there is still much underestimation of their current roster. Some of their players have had great seasons in Euroleague (especially Darjus Lavrinovic and steady Javtokas) and I believe that their frontcourt is among the best in the competition. Even without the guard duo, I am still scared of them beating Greece in the round game, so? I go with Lithuania.
Dimitris, do you seriously think that after warming the bench for an entire season Macijauskas will renounce to play a world championship with his country? The same (to a lesser extent) goes for Jasikevicius. I expect to see them both this summer, which will make Lithuania one of the three big contenders (with Argentina and USA).

I think you're a bit too optimistic with Spain, although I can see that this could very well be the best Spanish team ever. I want to see a starting five with Calderón, Navarro, Rudy Fernández, Garbajosa and Gasol.

I would rate the teams this way:
- Argentina
- Lithuania
- USA
- Spain
- Greece
- France

[wardjdim]

Dimitris, do you seriously think that after warming the bench for an entire season Macijauskas will renounce to play a world championship with his country? The same (to a lesser extent) goes for Jasikevicius. I expect to see them both this summer, which will make Lithuania one of the three big contenders (with Argentina and USA).

I am not sure that u understood my quote man. What I say is that even if they are not playing, Lithuania can go far anyway. They are extremely balanced. I place them 4th.
Spain
Argentina
Greece
Lithuania
USA
Serbia
France

[11player]

Well, Nene confirmed some time ago he will not be playing in Japan. Too bad for Brazil.
I wouldn't rule him out just yet bc there is a lawsuit against the brazilian basketball confederation and it was determined for the president to step aside. It is not finished yet, but things could change for the better.

To me the US will have a loaded team, probably the best team in Japan. But if they just gather the players a couple of weeks before the competition for training, like they have been doing the past ones, they will get burned once again.