Euroleague Thread (moving into Top 16 stage)

[Jonathan]

We join in on Week 14 of the competition, the last fixture before the Top 16 kicks off.

Here are the standings so far:

Teams with a * have qualified for the next round.

Group A W-L

TAU* 10-3
Climamio* 9-4
Zalgiris* 9-4
Benetton* 8-5
Bamberg* 6-7
Olimpija 4-9
Strasbourg 3-10
AEK 3-10

Group B W-L

Efes Pilsen* 9-4
L. Rytas* 8-5
Maccabi* 8-5
Winterthur FCB* 7-6
Olympiacos 6-7
Milano 5-8
Cibona 5-8
Prokom Trefl 4-9

Group C W-L

Unicaja* 11-2
Panathinaikos* 11-2
CSKA Moscow* 9-4
Real Madrid* 7-6
Montepaschi 4-9
Ulker 4-9
Pau-Orthez 4-9
Partizan 2-11

Here is the schedule for this week:

Group A

Union Olimpija Vs. Benetton Treviso
AEK Athens Vs. GHP Bamberg
Tau Ceramica Vs. Strasbourg
Zalgiris Kaunas Vs. Climamio Bologna

Group B

Maccabi Tel Aviv Vs. Winterthur FCB
Armani Jeans Milano Vs. Olympiacos
Cibona Vs. Efes Pilsen
Prokom Trefl Sopot Vs. Lietuvos Rytas

Group C

Partizan Vs. CSKA Moscow
Ulker Vs. Montepaschi
Real Madrid Vs. Panathinaikos
Pau-Orthez Vs. Unicaja


Official site: http://www.euroleague.net/

[Genjuro]

I think Olympiacos is already qualifyed. I really miss some sort of analisys on every team's chances of quaifying in the official web.

[KristianH]

Milano is pretty much qualified (they should lose, and Cibona win againts Efes in order to get through the next round). In group C decisive match is Ulker - Montepaschi.

[Genjuro]

Milano is pretty much qualified (they should lose, and Cibona win againts Efes in order to get through the next round). In group C decisive match is Ulker - Montepaschi.
Watch out for Cibona; it's a strong team at home. However, Olympiacos is so weak on the road, that this is a secure vitory for the Italians (for all you in love with bettings, here's a safe one).

That Ulker - Montepaschi game will be thrilling. We will be able to watch it here in Spain (the Euroleague coverage this season has been wonderful, and they have chosen the games very well this week). The Italians have disappointed me; I expected them to be higher at this point (indeed, in the Italian Lega they are faring rather well).

[wardjdim]

I am really seeing the Maccabi-Barcelona as the game of the week. A potential loss could mean that Maccabi might end up as 3rd in a top-16 group, creating at least one ridiculously open group.
Moreover, I am dying to see the game between Ulker and Siena. The winner is qualifying, the one who loses is out (given that Milano will beat Olympiakos).
Shockingly interesting day. I m a bit unhappy because the Group B games will be over (definitely the most interesting and open Regular Season Group competition from the moment that ULEB was founded), but top-16 is always more exhiting than the regular season.

[Jonathan]

Isn't it a bit of a shock to see Unicaja with the best record in the Euroleague? I know they are usually a solid team, but they don't have anywhere near the star power that 5-6 other teams in the league do.

In fact I remember attending the practices for Team USA before they went to the tournament of the Americas and telling the Euro vets there about Marcus Brown signing a contract with Unicaja for some outrageous sum (like 1.6 million net or so). Guys like Lynn Greer, Charlie Bell and Tyus Edney said they think he's the most overrated player in Europe and they couldn't see why he kept making so much money every single year. I hadn't seen that much of him so I couldn't really argue, but it seems like he has had to have a pretty big role in their success so far, no?

[wardjdim]

Isn't it a bit of a shock to see Unicaja with the best record in the Euroleague? I know they are usually a solid team, but they don't have anywhere near the star power that 5-6 other teams in the league do.

In fact I remember attending the practices for Team USA before they went to the tournament of the Americas and telling the Euro vets there about Marcus Brown signing a contract with Unicaja for some outrageous sum (like 1.6 million net or so). Guys like Lynn Greer, Charlie Bell and Tyus Edney said they think he's the most overrated player in Europe and they couldn't see why he kept making so much money every single year. I hadn't seen that much of him so I couldn't really argue, but it seems like he has had to have a pretty big role in their success so far, no?
Yeah, Brown is good, but still streaky and unstable. It's Garbajosa who is the star (if not superstar) for them. I really appreciate their PG game, with Cabezas and Pepe Sanchez. Now, with Nicevic back and a steady Santiago, they only miss a steady second wing option (if they could only take advantage of Hermann!!!) to be considered a lock for the elite-8. Let's see. They are not a favorite, despite their record...

[Genjuro]

Isn't it a bit of a shock to see Unicaja with the best record in the Euroleague? I know they are usually a solid team, but they don't have anywhere near the star power that 5-6 other teams in the league do.

In fact I remember attending the practices for Team USA before they went to the tournament of the Americas and telling the Euro vets there about Marcus Brown signing a contract with Unicaja for some outrageous sum (like 1.6 million net or so). Guys like Lynn Greer, Charlie Bell and Tyus Edney said they think he's the most overrated player in Europe and they couldn't see why he kept making so much money every single year. I hadn't seen that much of him so I couldn't really argue, but it seems like he has had to have a pretty big role in their success so far, no?
It's a shock and it isn't at the same time.

The thing I regret the most about our Euroleague preview was not to include Unicaja. I was fearing that this team would fail again early in the competition, particularly since the season started so bad for them in the ACB League, with injuries (Nicevic particularly) and other stuff. However, it was a very good team with a very good coach (Scariolo).

Last season they showed an excellent level in late winter and early spring, winning the King's Cup, right before Garbajosa got injured. However, they really lacked star power. This season, they added it in the form of (expectedly) Marcus Brown and (unexpectedly) Daniel Santiago.

I don't agree at all about Brown being the most overrated player in Europe. I think only Anthony Parker is clearly a superior SG in the Old Continent. What I love from Brown is that he can be a huge scorer but he is a team player at the same time. He was just what this team needed after dealing with JR Bremer, a guy with an awful basketball IQ (and he had played PG in the NBA... which shows you how different is American and European bball).

I was afraid about Santiago's signing. I expected a much softer player that would fail to contribute consistently. Well, he's not the most consistent guy, and he gets into foul trouble too much, but he has been a force in many games. All in all, Santiago was one of the main reasons why Varese won an Italian League title in the late nineties.

So, I think there's star material in this team: Garbajosa, Brown and Santiago, with excellent role players such as Pepe Sánchez (starting PG of Argentina), Risacher, Florient Pietrus, Berni Rodríguez or, hopefully, Sandro Nicevic. Still, it's true that this roster is a step below the true European powerhouses (I wouldn't say anywhere near, though), and therefore, I don't expect them to win the Euroleague title. But this team is for real, and I wouldn't be that surprised to see them reaching the final four.

[Charlie Bury]

Genjuro, what do you think of Darjus Lavrinovic ? Do you think he is a future NBA player? I watched him play on NBAtv a couple months ago and also watched him at Eurobasket for Lithuania and he was pretty impressive. Do you think he is strong enough to bang down low in the NBA? He's clearly a better NBA prospect than his twin brother right? Is he more of a 4 or a 5?

I would love for my Milwaukee Bucks to give him a shot ( we really need an athletic power forward).

[KristianH]

Im not suprised by Unicaja at all, they have great roster...maybe not so powerful like Tau, CSKA...but not fare away. They have defensive minded-pass first playmaker in Pepe Sanchez, slasher like Cabezas, all-around guard in Marcus Brown, inside-out forward Garbajosa, post scorers Santiago, Nicevic, rebounder Pietrus...it is very balanced team. I didn`t watch them a lot(2 games), but they look very good and if momentum goes on they will be in Prague.

Darjus Lavrinovic has nice combination of athleticism and skills, but i just have feeling that he wouldn`t succed in the NBA. He is more of a PF, and definitely could play those grandpa Kukoc`s 12-15 minutes next season, but you can get player of similar quality(and more potential) through draft, without paying buyout to other club.

[Genjuro]

Genjuro, what do you think of Darjus Lavrinovic ? Do you think he is a future NBA player? I watched him play on NBAtv a couple months ago and also watched him at Eurobasket for Lithuania and he was pretty impressive. Do you think he is strong enough to bang down low in the NBA? He's clearly a better NBA prospect than his twin brother right? Is he more of a 4 or a 5?

I would love for my Milwaukee Bucks to give him a shot ( we really need an athletic power forward).
I think Lavrinovic has what it takes to play in the NBA: size, athleticism, strength and skills. He probably wouldn't be a banger even if he can (and would) play in the low post (he's not awfully strong, but enough to hold a position down low), but he would spend more time facing up the basket as a power forward. However, I think he could also spend some time playing center, although I've seen him struggling on post defense. I would say that he's better than his twin brother, but not clearly. Both are really similar players. Perhaps he could be a nice first big man off the bench.

Kristian, who would you get out of the lottery in the draft comparable to Lavrinovic?

By the way, I've just remembered that Marcus Brown shared team with Tyus Edney back in Treviso (D'Antoni was the coach then, I think). It's surprising to see Edney talking trash about Brown.

[wardjdim]

Luis, did u see the Real Madrid-Panathinaikos game a few hrs ago?
I couldnt watch any game tonite, but I read that Sakota scored 17 points.
Can u tell me wha u saw about him?
He was probably shootin too much and was ungaurdable, but I'd really like to see yr opinion...
If he was not much guarded though, it shouldnt be much of a deal.
BTW, I m waitin for tomorrow's game at Milan.
This could be the game to see Printezis more carefully. And I wanna see Panayotis again. He has to return to form after his injury...

[KristianH]

Kristian, who would you get out of the lottery in the draft comparable to Lavrinovic?

Milwaukee doesn`t have first round pick this year, but some1 of Tyrus Thomas, Tiago Splitter, Shelden Williams or Josh Boone will be available in late lottery i think. I find them all more interesting then guy like Lavrinovic.

[Genjuro]

Kristian, who would you get out of the lottery in the draft comparable to Lavrinovic?

Milwaukee doesn`t have first round pick this year, but some1 of Tyrus Thomas, Tiago Splitter, Shelden Williams or Josh Boone will be available in late lottery i think. I find them all more interesting then guy like Lavrinovic.
Actually I was meaning "not in the lottery".

Dimitris, Sakota had a great shooting day, helped by his team's ball movement and Real Madrid's poor defensive rotations. He scored three treys in a row from the exact same place in the first quarter. Panathinaikos played a very good game, as usual, particularly Diamantidis.

However, the game I enjoyed the most was Ulker - Montepaschi. I love do-or-die games. They are full of thrilling, intensity but one also featured very nice basketball performances. Kaukenas shooting, slashing, passing the ball, and Haislip with an exceptional shooting day where he most promient guys.

Kaukenas proved to be Siena's best player while Woodward showed that the best place for him is the bench right now. I'm really disappointed about how this squad performed in the Euroleague and I think it has to do with the fact that Woodward has enjoyed too much prominence in the team's offensive game, and that Kaukenas has struggled to find his best rhythm. I also expected more out of Eze and more consistency coming from Justin Hamilton (he delivered a good game yesterday), although I'm not sure if Recalcati has trusted him enough. By the way Kristian, in the end I was right: Stonerook has been more important than Boisa.

[KristianH]

By the way Kristian, in the end I was right: Stonerook has been more important than Boisa.

I give you that :)

[KristianH]

Great game from Edney and nice showing of Seibutis and Vasiloupolos enabled Cibona to qualify as last team to top 16.

Markota had awful offensive game, but was very good at defense and on the glass.

[wardjdim]

Gosh, I watched Olympiakos' 2nd half yesterday. They are in a great shape for the 3rd straight game. They completely destoyed Calabria and mainly Bulleri... Offensively, I am just worried about this team depending too much on the right now red-hot Edney. Right now, Tyus is the hottest PG in Europe. But, I cannot say that this will keep up in the top-16 round, with toughest opponents and after a break. Edney had been unstable all year and right now I m still a bit scared about depending on him that much.
However, Vassilopoulos/Seibutis/Schortsianitis/Printezis are forming a great line for the team's future and particularly starting next year. This team is deep and has quality (although I had been hating them for years) and if they keep being hot both is Greece and in the road games), I can say that they are among top-8 candidates right now...

[Jonathan]

Top 16 draw has occured:

Top 16 Draw results
Group D Group E Group F Group G

Unicaja Maccabi Elite Tau Ceramica Panathinaikos
Zalgiris Climamio CSKA Moscow Efes Pilsen
Winterthur FCB Real Madrid Lietuvos Rytas Benetton
Olympiacos Ulker Bamberg Cibona

[Genjuro]

We have already the results of the Euroleague draw, and this is my prediction:

Group D:
1. Unicaja
2. FC Barcelona
3. Zalgiris
4. Olympiacos

I think Barcelona has been lucky, because I feel right now Zalgiris is the weakest team from the level 2. Watch out for Olympiacos, a very tough team to beat at home, although advancing is a long shot for them given the importance of winning on the road. I think/expect/hope Unicaja will keep its consistency in the top-16 stage.

Group E:
1. Maccabi
2. Climamio
3. Ulker
4. Real Madrid

I expect Maccabi to show something close to its full strength at this stage. I think they are, along Panathinaikos, the big favourites for the final triumph in the Euroleague. This group should be fairly easy for them. Climamio is my next bet, although it's a young team and they could suffer. Ulker and Real Madrid, despite not enjoying their best playing, are dangerous teams for sure. Any of them could give the surprise and advance over the Italian team.

Group F:
1. Tau
2. CSKA
3. Lietuvos Rytas
4. Bamberg

Tau has been lucky concerning this group. Bamberg is one of the weakest teams in the top-16, while both CSKA and Lietuvos Rytas won't be as strong as they could look at first sight. CSKA will miss Andersen, one of the top big men in the competition, and Rytas has lost their momentum and it's not clear at all they will be able to get it back again. Still, Tau is struggling in their trips, so anything can happen.

Group G:
1. Panathinaikos
2. Efes
3. Benetton
4. Cibona

Ouch! If we forget about the level 4 teams, this is by far the strongest group. However, Panathinaikos is the clear favourite to get the first place, even if the suffering is almost guaranteed. Efes and Benetton should fight for that second place. I have the feel that Efes will get away with it, but it's a tough call. Cibona has no bussiness considering the strength of the rivals and the fact that they usually suck on the road. However, they can become the judges of the group given their strength at home.

[wardjdim]

Group D
Unicaja 4-2
Olympiakos 4-2
Zalgiris 3-3
Barcelona 1-5

Unicaja is the best team of the 4, but I cant see them keeping up with their strong game in this round too. Their stability and successful Regular Season results were rather a (huge) surprise and odds are against them being a trophy favorite. But they are better (not far better though..) than the other teams. Olympiakos is in top form right now. They are playing excellent ball and they are tough to beat even when they play on the road. If they didnt depend too much on Edney, I would call them the top favorite in the group. Zalgiris is better than Barca IMO, but I cant see them advancing. Their frontline is deep and good, but they last continuity in away games. Barca might have the best roster here, but their game isnt trustworthy. In a tough group like that, I think they have no chance.

Group E
Maccabi 6-0
Climamio 3-3
Ulker 2-4
Real 1-5

Pretty easy group for Maccabi. Climamio is IMO the worst team of the 2nd ranking, Ulker is nothing special and Real one of the worst top-16 teams. Maybe the most unstable one. I think that Climamio has a slight advantage for the 2nd place, but they wouldnt advance in any other group.

Group F
TAU 5-1
Rytas 4-2
CSKA 2-4
Bamberg 1-5

What a group! Ok, Bamberg might have caused some surprises but it's tough to go any further. TAU is clearly the best team here, but they'll struggle a bit. I think that CSKA is over. Rytas was the worst team to face, especially with such a good frontline. I m bettin that TAU, a top-4 team IMO, will only lose by Rytas, but this depends on Rytas' form. Rytas is still a new team around, so noone knows what to expect after this weird Regular Season.

Group G
Panathinaikos 5-1
Efes 4-2
Benetton 3-3
Cibona 0-6

Nice one! If Nikos Zissis is back, then Benetton has some hopes, especially with Popovic being 1 month out for Efes. I think it's a great group for Panathinaikos, not as easy as Maccabi's, but a group with only one tough game IMO, the one in Istanbul, could not worry them. Efes is a weird game. They are a splendid team, but why are they unstable? Probably a home win versus Panathinaikos will give them a top-8 ticket. I dont see any win for Cibona, clearly the weakest team of the 4.

[Jonathan]

Maccabi just lost this past week in the Israeli league, which if you follow even fleetingly, almost NEVER happens. That's a sure fire sign that something is wrong in Tel Aviv right now with the chemistry. They are still looking to make some changes to the squad, with one article saying its definitely going to be a backcourt player and that Maccabi is willing to spend "30...40...50 thousand, whatever it takes."

Halperin was rumored to be contacted to see if he is interested in returning, but I am not sure how realistic that option is.

Maccabi needs to be careful since all 3 of those teams could beat them on any given night if they don't get their shit together soon.

[Jonathan]

What's up with Tau signing Lionel Chalmers BTW? Super talented guy, great scorer, but man this is not the kind of dude that can come in and fit in with the team chemistry wise right away. If they are looking for some one and one scoring and streaky shooting they got their guy...but I think they might regret this move down the road.

Wouldn't Ed Cota have been a better signing?

[Genjuro]

What's up with Tau signing Lionel Chalmers BTW? Super talented guy, great scorer, but man this is not the kind of dude that can come in and fit in with the team chemistry wise right away. If they are looking for some one and one scoring and streaky shooting they got their guy...but I think they might regret this move down the road.

Wouldn't Ed Cota have been a better signing?
Perhaps Cota was more expensive. Besides, in Spain it's said that Cota had a drinking problem, and that's why Zalgiris released him and Barcelona signed him for only two months.

I don't like the move if it will imply some change in the structure of the team. It's been romoured that either Jacobsen or Hansen would be cut in the ACB League to make room for Chalmers, while Ukic will be moved to the wing. It certainly sounds really strange to me. I know Ukic is probably the weakest links in Tau's game right now, but he's a mid-term bet and he's not looking that awful.

But also it has been rumoured that Chalmers has been signed as a third PG, in case either Ukic or Prigioni get injured. He would play in the Euroleague, though (there's no foreign limitation) and I guess he could surpass Ukic in the rotation.

I don't know what to think. I certainly don't like it.

By the way, Ivan Koljevic has been loaned to Olympiacos. Anybody knows why Olympiacos wanted him? In my opinion, he's not better than Harissis at this point. He's really skilled, but a head case. I fear about Olympiacos chemestry now...

[KristianH]

Efes Pilsen wants to loan Ukic until the end of the season, since thier first PG Marko Popovic is sidelined for atleast 4 weeks. This way signing Chalmers makes more sense...i hope Tau accepts these offer, Ukic could play better in Efes system where point guard has more freedom...not to mention Arslan is much worse competition then Prigioni.

[Jonathan]

Alex Scales signed by Real Madrid. Very nice move. He was my sleeper and a guy I pushed very hard towards a certain Euroleague team. Will be interesting to see what he can do.

[wardjdim]

Group G is gonna be really fun to watch from now on! Cibona has beat both Panathinaikos and Efes (on the road!!!), Pana has lost two games, both on the road and now needs all 4 wins to qualify. Efes has lost once again from Cibona and now in top-16 home losses are extremely important. Benetton is the most "Mainstream' (or simply ...normal) team of the 4. It's gonna be a great last 4 weeks!!!

[KristianH]

Next weeks clash againts Benneton will be crucial for Cibona, if they win they are pretty much in quarterfinals, because in last round they play at home againts Efes (3-0 this season), who should be out of race by then in my opinion.

[wardjdim]

So, in 2 weeks we have:

WINNERS:

Cibona: 1 home and 1 away win. Huge surprise. Some (including me) thought they could go even winless. Cibona beat both Panathinaikos and Efes (in Istanbul) and if they only win their home games they are a top-8 lock.

Barcelona: 2 Away Wins. Huge wins in the first two games. They both two hot games vs Zalgiris and Unicaja, being the first team to become a lock for the top-8. Now, it's on their hand and only.

Real Madrid: 2 home wins. One of them in a dominant fashion vs Maccabi. The other in a good margin vs main opponent Climamio. If they finally stabilize their game, they have great top-8 hopes

Olympiakos: 2 home wins. With Zalgiris going 0-2, Olympiakos may focus on a road game vs a Spanish team to reach even the 1st place on the group. Bad news is they are not so good on the road.

CSKA Moscow: 1 home and 1 away win. Dominant win in Lithuania vs Rytas was followed by tough win vs Tau. Now they are the top favs for the qualification in the group, but still need to beat at least once again one of their two main opponents.

LOSERS:

Zalgiris: 1 home and one away loss. Lost the game vs Barca because they
woke up late. Lost the one in Piraeus because they have no back-court. I doubt they have many chances right now.

Unicaja: 1 Home and 1 Away loss. Unfortunately their efficiency is not there anymore. Both losses will hurt them, but they still have all the tools to bounce back. This group is still open.

Panathinaikos: 2 away losses. Huge surprise for them chocking twice in the
last minutes of two away games. One more loss could eliminate them from the competition. They can still go as well as #1 in the group though.

Efes Pilsen: 1 home loss/1 home win. Crazy 0-3 record vs Cibona keeps them in trouble. They need to regain their strength, but this seems unlikely. They have a huge program to follow. Two away wins might still not be enough.

Maccabi: 1 home win/1 away loss. They were in terrible form against Real and lost badly, but partly bounced back vs Ulker, after losing by 15 in the 1st half. No way a top-8 team if they keep being unstable. They need to rebound.

Lietuvos: 1 home loss/1 home win. They may still be on the top-8 game, but their momentum seems to be lost. The games with Tau (even if they miss Scola) will likely be their swan song, or their last chance this year.

NEUTRAL: Ulker (0-2, but both away losses), Climamio (1-1, as likely expected), Tau (1-1, they were never a "lock" to win in Moscow), Bamberg (0-2, but the Tau home loss was not unexpected), Benetton (1-1, although the win vs Panathinaikos could push them in the "winners" list)

[Jonathan]

Luis, have you gotten to see Alex Scales at Real yet?

[Genjuro]

Luis, have you gotten to see Alex Scales at Real yet?
Yeah. I already knew him from the last summer's Tournament of the Americas. He's a good player, there's no doubt about it, but my question is whether Real Madrid needed another scoring guard (even if he can do more things). At least, he stayed cool in his first showings, trying to play team ball, defending, shooting only when he had open looks and leaving the spotlight to Rakocevic and Bullock.

By the way, Gelabale is out of the team for the moment. It seems like he didn't want to extend his contract with Real Madrid, and as he's playing so poorly lately, he has been left out to make room to Scales.

[KristianH]

Cibona has 20 point lead againts Benneton on halftime, its amaizing how this team completely changed it`s outlook in 30 days. Markota is doing good job on the boards and passing the ball very well even if has no assists so far, while Bargnani is invisible...he defends poorly just as whole team. Andread missed one turnaround jumper and one uncontested three-pointer, he was unable to guard Davison, luckly for him Anzulovic rested Bennet for most of 2nd quarter.

[wardjdim]

Cibona has 20 point lead againts Benneton on halftime, its amaizing how this team completely changed it`s outlook in 30 days. Markota is doing good job on the boards and passing the ball very well even if has no assists so far, while Bargnani is invisible...he defends poorly just as whole team. Andread missed one turnaround jumper and one uncontested three-pointer, he was unable to guard Davison, luckly for him Anzulovic rested Bennet for most of 2nd quarter.
Thats exactly what I was about to say!!!
What is going on w/ them. I m gonna regret not having a credit card, because PremierBet was giving a 251/1 for them to win it all...

[Jonathan]

Very interesting. I thought they said he signed a 5 year deal over the summer?

[KristianH]

Spain clubs, and national team, is so protected by refs that is really shameful. They did it againts Climamio, tonight againts Lietuvos, not to mention Eurobasket.

[Genjuro]

Spain clubs, and national team, is so protected by refs that is really shameful. They did it againts Climamio, tonight againts Lietuvos, not to mention Eurobasket.
I think Spahija overreacted and threw the game to waste even if the reffering wasn't that good.

Anyway, I'm amazed by Cibona's game. The play an awesome basketball lately. They move the ball, they look for open looks and they make their shots. Simple and beautiful.

[KristianH]

Yeah, Spahija is idiot of his own, just like Perasovic. I can`t believe they signed this little guy Lionel Messi (to play infront of Ukic),who is exactly same type of player (scorer) with even more me-first attitude and less talent. If Prigioni is continuing to play 35mins per night, they will be screwed when it goes for titles.

[Genjuro]

I can`t believe they signed this little guy Lionel Messi (to play infront of Ukic),who is exactly same type of player (scorer) with even more me-first attitude and less talent. If Prigioni is continuing to play 35mins per night, they will be screwed when it goes for titles.
Messi is the soccer player. I guess you mean Chalmers. Anyway, it's hard to understand, and it doesn't fit with what has been the team's policy regarding younsters in the last years.

[wardjdim]

I really hope that the U.S. Viewers watched the Panathinaikos-Efes game (it was on NBA TV) on Wednesday. This is exactly the type of defense and toughness they're gonna face against International teams in Japan. If they do not notice that early, they'll end up in troubles...

[Genjuro]

Let's take a look at the current state of the top-16 round.

Group D:

Barcelona would need to suffer a major collapse not to qualify. Olympiacos and Unicaja will fight for the other spot. The point differerential in the game to be played between them in Malaga will be crucial. Olympiacos might be able to win the other two games, just one, or none at all. They will play the leader Barcelona at home, where the reds are very strong, and Zalgiris on the road, the big weakness of Olympiacos (only one on-the-road victory this season), although in the last game with the Lithuanians probably out of the competition then. Meanwhile, Unicaja has a very easy game at home against Zalgiris, but a very tough one in Barcelona. It will be a close competition between these two teams. Of course, if Olympiacos manages to win in Málaga, there's no chance for Unicaja.

Group E:

With Real Madrid unexpectedly undefeated and Maccabi second, both having a favourable calendar, I think the two spots are pretty much set, particularly when Fortitudo has two away games left.

Group F:

CSKA is probably the team that looks the most reliable at this point. It's not only their 3-0 record, but their awesome defense that makes them extremely solid. Tau should advance too, as they have two home games left, while Rytas has only one. However, this home game is precisely against Tau, so if they win and gain the point differential, the landscape could change a lot, and Tau would be forced to win against CSKA at home, which being a fair possibility, it's also a rather tough game.

Group G:

The world upside down. Cibona 3-0 and Panathinaikos 0-3. Still this group might change a lot. I think it wouldn't be impossible to see the Croatians lose every single game they have left and the Greeks to win them all, although they have an extremely tough meeting in Istanbul against Efes. If this happens, and Benetton cashes in thier home games, we would have a cuadruple tie.

Back to reality, Cibona and Efes should advance. Cibona is playing an awesome basketball lately, and even if they lose every single game they have left (I don't really trust this team), they still can make it taking into account that Panathinaikos will have a very tough time beating Efes Pilsen and that Benetton should lose in Athens and could very well fall at home against Efes. It's a crazy group; even Efes could lose their three games left (they visit Zagreb, having a 0-3 record this season against Cibona, they receive Panathinaikos, always a tough matchup no matter the situation, and the visit Treviso, an unpredictable team).

A few notes:

Gelabale was back after Tomas fell injured (some minor stuff), and he did look motivated, playing finally aggressively. If he could keep the effort, Real Madrid would become even more dangerous than already is.

Post players love to play against Zalgiris. Last week Schortsanitis smashed the Lithuanians and this week Santiago was dominant as well. Tanoka defends like a mother. I liked Zalgiris better when he was injured.

We place Bargnani in the first spot of the 2006 mock and he rewards us with a scoreless performance. There's little criteria in Benetton's game. They clearly miss Nikos Zissis.

Impressive win by Efes against Panathinaikos. Efes played a very good game, with Arslan succesfully distributing, Granger scoring and Prakcin and Pecker dominating the boards. This team is a life insurance and I didn't miss Marko Popovic on court.

[KristianH]

My take...

Group D

Barcelona is already qualified, no suprise here, i expected them to live up to the potential as season goes on. They have best guards on continent, but are one good bigmen away from being real favorites to win it all. I like Unicaja for second place, Olympiacos was on huge run because Tyus Edney was playing like a beast, i don`t think he can keep up like that.

Group E

Real Madrid played some good games in right time, quarterfinal spot is thier to lose, but following them this season you can never be sure. Im not sold on Maccabi, Parker is playing good, but Vujcic is in a slump and they struggle defensively. Climamio has big problems with thier foul-trouble bigmens, i think they can win all three games, not likely through.

Group F
Cibona is in great position, they can lose all three games, as long as they keep margin againts Benneton under 11 and againts Efes under 6 points. After watching them beat Efes three times already this season, it is hard to believe they will lose at home infront of packed arena. Efes and Benneton will fight for second place. Panathinaikos has to win all three games and that might not be enough, i have a feeling they lose against Cibona already next week.

Group G

CSKA will be first and Tau second, which might be better option since they will probably face Cibona is battle for Final4, altrough Croatians with home-court advantage.

[tamaska]

Post players love to play against Zalgiris. Last week Schortsanitis smashed the Lithuanians and this week Santiago was dominant as well. Tanoka defends like a mother. I liked Zalgiris better when he was injured.


I agree, Tanoka is liability on defensive end and he always gets to defend opposite teams best inside scorer, he is older and sometimes seems lazy to put effort, hes not same he was last year or year before, and we gave him long term deal, which lasts two more seasons i think. Maybe Silinskis is slow, soft and not athletic, but hes better defender than Tanoka, and Sireika should have used him more on Safoklis and Santiago.

Also, Mantas Kalnietis got few minutes, he started shaky, but overaly he had decent game, i think he can be nice future PG for Lithuania NT.

[woma]

Regarding Zalgiris - coach Sireika is gone, Ainars Bagatskis is his replacement. He was very intelligent player (and is very intelligent person from what I've been told), it's interesting what kind of changes he will make in his team.
He will debut tomorrow against Olimpiacos, greek team already advanced to Elite 8, so it won't be anything on the line in this game.

[wardjdim]

Today, Panathinaikos-Benetton and Cibona-Efes. Very hot games both of them. Very interesting to watch..

[KristianH]

Prkacin killed Cibona in 2nd half. Panathinaikos advanced after 0-3 start as first in group.

Probable matchups

Maccabi - Olympiacos
Barcelona - Real Madrid
Panathinaikos - Tau Ceramica
CSKA Moscow - Efes Pilsen

Maccabi should advance, other games are very close.

[Genjuro]

Prkacin killed Cibona in 2nd half. Panathinaikos advanced after 0-3 start as first in group.

Probable matchups

Maccabi - Olympiacos
Barcelona - Real Madrid
Panathinaikos - Tau Ceramica
CSKA Moscow - Efes Pilsen

Maccabi should advance, other games are very close.
All of Draftexpress' six preseason favourites qualyfied for the quarterfinals.

My top four preseason favourites have court advantage.

Anyway, those were pretty obvious predictions shared with multiple people, I guess.

[wardjdim]

All of Draftexpress' six preseason favourites qualyfied for the quarterfinals.

My top four preseason favourites have court advantage.

Anyway, those were pretty obvious predictions shared with multiple people, I guess.
Oh no!!!
I was rooting for Cibona yesterday, so Panathinaikos wouldnt match up w/ Tau in the quarters... I guess, if Tau wanted to push for the first place, then they should've been more careful in Lithuania. Now, I am not sure that they are making it in the F4.
It seems as Panathinaikos/Barcelona/Maccabi/CSKA are getting the upper hand in the final4.