Chad Ford on Yi Jianlian

[Genjuro]

I've just read the last piece Chad Ford has devoted to Yi Jianlian, I find pretty sad how he can change his opinion on the guy so quickly without much reason other than giving it a second thought.

It's almost like one day he wokes up and Yi is the third best prospect only behind Oden and Durant, and now he's not sure whether Yi can play in the NBA or not.

Overhype, that's it. To sell a story. And it had its effect, because Yi boosted his stock up in most mock drafts (fortunately, not DraftExpress').

For anybody reading our reports on Yi during these last two years, I think his potential, strengths but also the concerns about his game have been pretty clearly stressed, at least to come up with a decent picture on him. That's because we've seen dozens of hours of this guy on videotape.

I mean, you can't rely on a non-competitive workout. It's sooooo silly...

[wardjdim]

It's probably selling though, mainly because of this well-publicized imaged of Yi as the "mystery" guy of this year's draft.
Of course, for each one of us who has already watched the guy matching-up against world class players in the world international competitions, his NBA potential was defined. However, in the U.S. you can still sell a story given some specific background (this "mystery" background in the specific case). Especially when you are considered as trustworthy..

[Jonathan]

article is free right now:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Yi-Conundrum&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos1

I thought it was really well written. He brings up some good points. I don't agree with the Dirk stuff obviously (1+1 doesn't always equal 2 in the world of the NBA draft...), but he does a good job of bringing up the major arguments we're all hearing these days. I think he spends too much time making excuses for him personally. About his conclusions? We'll have to wait and see obviously.

[Genjuro]

Of course it's well written. That's something you usually take for granted with Chad's articles.

And yes, he's rather accurate in this last article. My problem is with the original overhyping piece, and the sudden change of opinion.

[andrejjan]

I actually love reading his stuff, he is very intelligent, has a great style to trigger the neverending thirst of a basket maniac (like Clark Francis of the Hoopscoop), but his understanding of the game, his ability to evaluate is almost nonexistent. Thanks to his communication skills and his position thru ESPN he is one of the best connected people in the Nba even if he lives now in Honolulu. But the way he was manipulated from agents and teams, people with an agenda is breathtaking. On his trip to europe (especially belgrade) 2002 every word he wrote came from the lips of Ronzone, Cornstein and all the european scouts he was socializing with.
As an example, he watched podkolzine and lampe extensively, never ever were these two guys ever considered lottery picks by a single, one executive, but ford got this info from some gms in the hope that maybe someone will take them way too early and so free some talent to pick. But he received this nonsense also from their agents and the international scouts, so he writes this crazy stuff, even if you watch these guys 10 minutes you know it can not be true.
As for switching his stance, depends on who he talked yesterday.
As for genjuros piece on rudy. One thing is missing-If he makes it in the league- as a rotation player-this is the sort of money he can not make in europe-by a wild margin.
Look, if we talk about the money his agent loses alone over a ten-year period, we are talking in the 1/2 million - 1 million range.

[wardjdim]

I also like the story a lot. The previous one seems more like a presentation of the guy, while this one is more speculating and searching for every single detail of the player's real value into the market.

Being well-written and with the style of Ford, it doesn't excuse itself from raising these typical U.S. doubts concerning the international guys, although Yi is clearly an NBA talent (maybe a mentally limited player and a guy who would lead the supporting cast, yet not be the go-to player). I really think that Ford isn't necessarily making a 180-turn here, when he just protects himself for the previous article, not only because the nature of the article is not the same, but also because he is quoting others (Dixon and, especially Ainge are important for this article) to back up the hype and also reveal the existing concerns.

What I like the most by this article, though, is that Chad Ford is clearly expressing a similar opinion to the one that Luis and the consensus of DX writers have expressed for the past couple of years...

[Genjuro]

As for genjuros piece on rudy. One thing is missing-If he makes it in the league- as a rotation player-this is the sort of money he can not make in europe-by a wild margin.
Although I could ceartainly have mentioned that, I think it is so obvious that there was no great need for doing it. Just as the fact that he might fail to make any kind of impact in the NBA or that he might get seriously injured with only two cheaply guaranteed years in his pocket.

[11player]

Yup, but that's a risk every player faces. Rudy could also get seriously injured playing in Europe, only, I believe he would have a better chance of signing another good contract after an injury coming from the NBA, than playing in Europe already.

In fact, this contract Barcelona is offering doesn't seem much by the regular ACB standards, considering it's Rudy, specially being born in Spain and all.

[andrejjan]

Sorry, but your article left the impression there is now a substantial obstacle economically regarding the destiny of most of the draftable international players. You are echoing the century-old mantra of european agents and teams for more money from the nba. But on this subject you are absolutely off the base. First, if you look back over the last 10 years, the majority of the interesting guys were basically kids, unproven, super-talented but years away from competing even on the high european level. So if you forget the disastrous economic situation in europe, almost all would not get equal money in europe. Regarding rudy, if he is selected in the 20-25 range the difference is not that substantial, taxes are the hammer but the more money you make the more possibilities you have for tax reductions.

The great economic difference in the future will be even more grotesque. You can expect that the rookie scale will rise, the average salary will rise because the sources of income will expand. As for europe, there is no hope whatsoever that basketball could be a viable economic enterprise- ever.
Often you are writing about the acb being such a great example of success, financially it is a mirage.
If you talk about barcelona, when the cavaliers sell one skybox for one year, they receive more money barca is making selling television rights, marketing and other venues of income.
As for gate receipts, it will be sketchy to pay more than 2 or 3 starters from this part. So who is paying, in spain real and barcelone are paying, the football teams. If you are going 100-150 millions in red, hey whats about 10-15 millions more. Then you have regional and municipal governments writing the checks for the other teams or rich individuals in other parts of europe.

To summarize, the difference in money for the handful of players we talk is only slightly palpable, but if you have the talent and desire to make it in the nba-we are talking being a modest nba player- the difference were kingdoms- every guy in the know will honestly tell you this. All the other talk is crap-it is simply not true.
The problem currently is the contract that is gagling the players, but only temporarily, with the liberalization we are experiencing it is a matter of time the professional contract we know of today will be obsolete.

[Genjuro]

Yup, but that's a risk every player faces. Rudy could also get seriously injured playing in Europe, only, I believe he would have a better chance of signing another good contract after an injury coming from the NBA, than playing in Europe already.

In fact, this contract Barcelona is offering doesn't seem much by the regular ACB standards, considering it's Rudy, specially being born in Spain and all.
It's a different risk to get injured during a poor contract rather than under a longer and wealthier deal. Actually, going to the NBA means financially to bet on the future; staying in Europe means to bet for the present. You're right about the amount; despite what that article says, it's more money at this moment.

Sorry, but your article left the impression there is now a substantial obstacle economically regarding the destiny of most of the draftable international players. You are echoing the century-old mantra of european agents and teams for more money from the nba. But on this subject you are absolutely off the base. First, if you look back over the last 10 years, the majority of the interesting guys were basically kids, unproven, super-talented but years away from competing even on the high european level. So if you forget the disastrous economic situation in europe, almost all would not get equal money in europe..
Of course. We're talking here about proven guys with high value in the market. And yes, there's an obstacle; perhaps not so important, but it's there. I think the rookie scale hasn't grown lately as fast as some top Euro budgets in recent years. And specially, now there's only two guaranteed years in first-round contracts, so in fact the NBA money for these players is even worse that it used to be.

If we talk about Spanish guys, after the required quota set in the ACB (five at least per team), their value have grown a lot more for Spanish teams.

Regarding rudy, if he is selected in the 20-25 range the difference is not that substantial, taxes are the hammer but the more money you make the more possibilities you have for tax reductions.
Considering Rudy is being offered already over a million EUROS per year NET and with more than two years under contract, yes, there's a big difference.

The great economic difference in the future will be even more grotesque. You can expect that the rookie scale will rise, the average salary will rise because the sources of income will expand. As for europe, there is no hope whatsoever that basketball could be a viable economic enterprise- ever.
Often you are writing about the acb being such a great example of success, financially it is a mirage.
If you talk about barcelona, when the cavaliers sell one skybox for one year, they receive more money barca is making selling television rights, marketing and other venues of income.
As for gate receipts, it will be sketchy to pay more than 2 or 3 starters from this part. So who is paying, in spain real and barcelone are paying, the football teams. If you are going 100-150 millions in red, hey whats about 10-15 millions more. Then you have regional and municipal governments writing the checks for the other teams or rich individuals in other parts of europe.
Of course. Where have I ever said that the ACB League is such a great example of financial success?. The ACB League is an example of success in the European environment because it's atracting large audiences to the arenas and has been able to built the best league in Europe by a wide margin, regardless where the money comes from. But anyway you look in Europe, every single team spending top money has some finantial source different from what the team is able to generate (perhaps Tau is the only exception; they get money from public institutions, but it's not that much, I believe). In the end it's a sad situation, but what can I do about it?

And so?

To summarize, the difference in money for the handful of players we talk is only slightly palpable, but if you have the talent and desire to make it in the nba-we are talking being a modest nba player- the difference were kingdoms- every guy in the know will honestly tell you this. All the other talk is crap-it is simply not true.
Of course, to have the desire. That's why I think Rudy will go to the NBA regardless the money he's offered. I think that's pretty clear in the article, isn't it?

The problem currently is the contract that is gagling the players, but only temporarily, with the liberalization we are experiencing it is a matter of time the professional contract we know of today will be obsolete.
We'll see.

[wombat6802]

So Chad Ford throws a (well-written) wrench into his own hype machine? That's either nobility or a test to see how bad Atlanta scouts the draft... I'll go with the latter.

[christastic!]

Im watching Yi play against memphis right now and he looks really impressive. Ive seen some of his CBA games and i knew he had game but i wasnt really sure what kind of effect he would have in the nba.Now i know he will have atleast a decent rookie season with playing time. With 5 minutes left in the 2nd quarter he has 14 points. So far hes shown a good mid range game and some pretty good post moves that end in either nasty dunks or a turnaround jumper. The downside is he has 6 fouls i think.

[mullet is gone]

Non competitive workouts are never a good thing.