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Play by Play Driven Floor Stats for 2010 NCAA Draft Prospects
by: Jonathan Givony - President
June 7, 2010

Play by play data is widely considered the next frontier in terms of basketball statistical analysis. While per-game and more recently per-minute pace adjusted stats are extremely useful, they still don’t tell us enough about how prospects accumulate the production they do, as well as how much they contribute to their team relative to their teammates.

NBA-based analysis based on play by play data has become a very accepted tool over the past few years, but NCAA analysis has been lagging far behind their professional counterparts for quite some time.

NBA teams spend an unbelievable amount of money to get their hands on this type of raw data for purposes of comparing and learning more about draft prospects, but DraftExpress has elected to open this up to the general public for free and plans on making significant advancements in this field over the next few years.

What type of new stats are we offering, and what can learn about them?

In the “NCAA Stats” section of our site, you’ll now find two more categories in the stat-type category pull-down menu: “Plus Minus” and “Shot-Selection.”

Note: the above links are currently filtered to show all players on our 2010 mock draft ONLY. Play with the filters to expand the field to all NBA draft prospects in our database, the entire NCAA, by specific positions, classes, conferences, by minutes played and much more.

Shot-Selection

This is a general overview of where on the floor individual players get their offensive production from. We divide this into:

2 Pt Jumpers– Jump-shots taken inside the 3-point line, but outside of the paint

3 Pt Jumpers- Jump-shots taken outside the 3-point line

Inside Shots- Lay-ups, jump-shots, runners and other non-dunks or tip-backs inside the paint

Dunks- Slam dunks- the highest percentage shot in basketball

Tips– Tip-backs on offensive rebounds

Next to each category you’ll see the players success rates on such shots in the form of their effective field goal percentage (EFG%)


Plus Minus

This view helps us evaluate a player’s effect on his team performance in various facets of the game when he is on and off the court, with the Net amount being the difference between the two.

Plus Minus / 40 - The point differential a team averages per 40 minutes while the player is on and off the court.

Points Scored / 40 – The amount of points a team scores per 40 minutes on average while the player is on and off the court.

Points Allowed / 40 - The amount of points a team allows per 40 minutes on average while the player is on and off the court.

Defensive Rebounding %- An estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on and off the court.

Offensive Rebounding %- An estimate of the percentage of available offensive rebounds a player grabbed while he was on and off the court.

In the coming days we'll be analyzing what these numbers mean as pertaining to specific draft prospects, as well as what its limitations are.
 


Feedback for this article may be sent to jonathan@draftexpress.com .

 

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