Coming off a breakout sophomore season in which he led the Commodores in scoring, Jenkins has mostly held his pace as a junior, again leading Vanderbilt in scoring with 19.5 points per game for the 11th ranked offense in the NCAA according to kenpom.com
Besides improving his 3-point percentages from 41% to 44% (an important development), Jenkins' stat line as a junior is practically a carbon copy of what he posted last year, and his outlook from an NBA perspective also remains largely the same from the last time we profiled him. One of the best shooters in the country with great versatility in getting his shot off, Jenkins has one clear-cut, high-level NBA skill, but still struggles to consistently stand out in other areas.
Looking at Jenkins' shooting game, there is ample reason to be optimistic about how it could translate to the NBA, as he has quite a few things working in his favor. For one, unlike most high-scoring NCAA shooting guards, Jenkins spends a good deal of time operating off the ball and often has short possessions when the ball comes his way. In likely transitioning to a much lower usage rate in the NBA, he already possesses the skills and tendencies fitting for that role.
Further, Jenkins is also at his best when he is operating as a spot-up shooter, coming off screens, or catching and going into a quick one or two-dribble pull-up. He's much more comfortable and efficient in these situations as opposed to operating in pure isolations, which he'll be seeing less of in the NBA.
Already sporting an outstanding TS% of 65% and an equally strong ratio of just 0.12 Turnovers:Possessions, Jenkins could actually become even more efficient in the NBA, where he should benefit from less defensive attention and the chance to be more selective with his looks.
Despite being a below average athlete and slightly undersized for the two-guard spot, there isn't much reason to believe Jenkins will have trouble getting his perimeter shot off against bigger, more athletic opponents in the NBA, as he's also unlikely to see the frequent double teams and traps he currently does as Vanderbilt's #1 option. He would probably excel most in a ball movement-heavy, up tempo offense that can get him the ball in space and on the move, where he possesses great mechanics and decision-making skills to get off high efficiency shots with ease.
In analyzing the rest of Jenkins' offensive game, he's still fairly limited at the NCAA level and there are question marks about what else other than shooting he could consistently contribute with in the NBA. Jenkins struggles both getting a good step on his man on dribble-drives and elevating for high-percentage shots in the lane, as he's held back by his below average athletic tools. He can make up for this somewhat with a strong mid-range game and if he better develops his floater, but it's hard to see him consistently contributing going to the basket in the short term.
Jenkins also could stand to improve as a passer, something he doesn't do much of for the Commodores with just 1.1 assists per game. He shows decent vision and ability making simple passes from the perimeter to cutters when he's looking, but often just isn't asked to do that in his team's offense, where he is heavily relied on for his scoring. Adjusting well here and expanding this area of his game could be helpful to his long term prospects, as this is the most likely area he can contribute something outside of his perimeter shooting.
Defensively, Jenkins' limitations are still evident, as he lacks the lateral quickness to consistently stay in front of guards, something that could be even more of a problem in the NBA. His effort level and fundamentals are solid enough, and he's decent from a positional defense standpoint, but it'll likely be a struggle for him to ever be an average defender in the NBA. Going to a team where he's very well utilized offensively to offset his defensive shortcomings will be key to how large an impact he has in his career.
Looking forward, Jenkins is an interesting prospect due to his one extremely potent skill, but his success will largely be dependent on where he's drafted due to his obvious limitations. Because he appears to be a truly elite shooter and has the intangible qualities well suited to his likely role, he should have a good chance of carving himself out a niche in the NBA, but how well he does will be very tied to the offensive scheme he plays in and how he's utilized by his coach. Maximizing his defensive and athletic abilities should be his biggest priority in pre-draft and beyond, as he likely largely is what he is from an offensive standpoint.