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Bad News for Those Who Didn’t Do Their Homework Early...

Bad News for Those Who Didn’t Do Their Homework Early...
Mar 26, 2008, 11:06 pm
The first weekend of the NCAA tournament saw most of the top prospects in the draft eliminated from contention after only or two games, which is a major change compared to years past. As opposed to last year, where we could see six of the eventual top 9 picks in the draft just by showing up for the Final Four, or 9 of the top 14 in the Sweet 16 (in 2006 that rose to 10 of 14), this year’s group of NBA GMs will not be anywhere near as lucky. That is, unless a major shakeup happens on our board, caused by previously unheralded prospects moving up dramatically after monumental performances in the Sweet 16 and on. This year, only 5 of the projected 14 lottery picks are still standing going into the Sweet 16, meaning that the real-game evaluation period has mostly come to a close.

How the Lottery portion of the 2007 Draft fared in the NCAA Tournament


07 Draft Lottery
PositionPlayerPlacement
#1 Greg Oden Finals

#2
Kevin Durant Second Round

#3
Al Horford Champion

#4
Mike Conley Jr Finals

#5
Jeff Green Final Four

#6
Yi Jianlian International

#7
Corey Brewer Champion

#8
Brandan Wright Elite Eight

#9
Joakim Noah Champion

#10
Spencer Hawes DNP

#11
Acie Law Sweet 16

#12
Thaddeus Young First round

#13
Julian Wright Elite Eight

#14
Al Thornton DNP


How the Lottery portion of the 2006 Draft fared in the NCAA Tournament

06 Draft Lottery
PositionPlayerPlacement

#1
Andrea Bargnani International

#2
LaMarcus Aldridge Elite Eight

#3
Adam Morrison Sweet 16

#4
Tyrus Thomas Final Four

#5
Shelden Williams Sweet 16

#6
Brandon Roy Sweet 16

#7
Randy Foye Elite Eight

#8
Rudy Gay Elite Eight

#9
Patrick O’Bryant Sweet 16

#10
Saer Sene International

#11
J.J. Redick Sweet 16

#12
Hilton Armstrong Elite Eight

#13
Thabo Sefolosha International

#14
Ronnie Brewer First Round


How this year’s projected Lottery has fared thus far


08 Draft Lottery
PositionPlayerPlacement
#1 Michael Beasley Eliminated

#2
Derrick Rose Alive

#3
Jerryd Bayless Eliminated

#4
Brook Lopez Alive

#5
O.J. Mayo Eliminated

#6
Danilo Gallinari International

#7
Blake Griffin Eliminated

#8
Eric Gordon Eliminated

#9
Kevin Love Alive

#10
DeAndre Jordan Eliminated

#11
D.J. Augustin Alive

#12
Anthony Randolph DNP

#13
Darren Collison Alive

#14
Chase Budinger Eliminated


How they Went Out

Considering this is likely the last time we’ll be writing about the way these players performed in a college game, a short summary of how the projected lottery picks fared in their final showing is probably in order.

Michael Beasley, 6-9, Freshman, PF, Kansas

Beasley’s NCAA tournament experience probably didn’t start or end quite the way he expected it to. He picked up two quick fouls in the first four minutes of his first game against Southern Cal, and only ended up scoring five points in the first half of that game. He recovered to pump in 18 after intermission, though, showing his incredible scoring instincts by creating his own shot from the perimeter and finishing with either hand in a variety of ways, his awesome first step and shooting range, as well as his phenomenal hands and touch around the rim. He didn’t go down in the paint as much as we’re normally accustomed to seeing him, preferring to face the basket and quickly take players off the dribble instead, likely to avoid the problems his guards usually have with making quality post-entry passes, as well as the barrage of double-teams he usually sees down low.

#11 seed Kansas State moved on to face #3 seed Wisconsin, a team that ended up being just too smart, disciplined, fundamental and well-coached for them to handle. He started off the game well, but did not show great poise down the stretch against this extremely stingy defensive team, forcing the issue even more than he typically does, driving into bricks walls in the lane in out of control fashion, and settling for off-balance fade-aways from outside, which just wouldn’t fall for him in the second half. He played extremely poorly on the defensive end in particular, which has been his biggest weakness all season long. He at times struggles to maintain his focus on both ends of the floor, losing his concentration and making poor decisions. He contributed very little to his team in the second half, but one poor stretch of basketball obviously doesn’t erase an entire season of fantastic play, so he still looks like the sure-fire #1 pick barring any major surprises.


Jerryd Bayless, 6-3, Freshman, PG/SG, Arizona

Bayless is in a bit of a tough situation: when he’s extremely aggressive looking for his own shot, people say he’s selfish, but when he lets things come to him, he’s criticized for being too passive. He definitely leaned more towards the latter in this particular contest, doing some nice playmaking setting up teammates, but never showing that extra gear we’ve seen numerous times during the course of the season where he just takes over a game and refuses to let his team lose. Part of that has to do with the fact that Arizona’s starters played a combined 190 out of a possible 200 minutes (with Bayless going the distance), a lot of that had to do with the fantastic team defense West Virginia played. But part of that was on Bayless too—who had favorable matchups he could have exploited at times thanks to his far superior physical tools, but for some reason showed little urgency trying to do so. He in fact only got to the free throw line twice in this game, which is tied for the second lowest total of the season for him. He was fantastic finding spots to operate in the mid-range, where he pulled up off the dribble beautifully in trademark fashion. The problem was he seemed to settle for these long-range jumpers too often, not taking the ball particularly strong to the basket, and not finishing very well or drawing contact when he did, showing a certain lack of toughness in the process—something that’s somewhat of a concern with him.

Bayless did not make up for his lack of aggression offensively with his play on the other end of the floor unfortunately. He struggled to fight through screens on numerous occasions, giving his matchup plenty of time to set his feet and get a clean shot off. When he was defending players head on, his lack of length, height and energy was clearly a poor mix in terms of contesting shots. It’s pretty obvious that Bayless is going to have problems defending the 2-guard position—unless he improves dramatically here, that is probably something his next coach will have to live with. We’re still talking about a supreme talent obviously, a virtual lock to be drafted in the top 10, but it’s pretty clear that Bayless peaked midway through the season and not at the very end. We must keep in mind that he’s only a freshman, though.


O.J. Mayo, 6-5, Freshman, PG/SG, Southern Cal

Mayo looked extremely nervous in his first (and likely last) NCAA tournament appearance, doing some very uncharacteristic things of a player who has garnered so much praise lately for his poise and maturity—for example picking up his dribble at mid-court in his very first possession. He forced some very bad shots up in the first half, but also did a phenomenal job of putting his court vision on display and making some gorgeous passes. He showed his perimeter shooting range by knocking down two NBA+ range 3-pointers, as well as by coming off a screen and spotting up, but was pretty cold early and late in the game, going just 6-15 total from the field, and scoring 20 points overall. Defensively, he was intense as usual, getting low in his stance, doing his best to contest shots, getting in the passing lanes, and guarding multiple positions on the court. All in all, this probably wasn’t the way Mayo envisioned his NCAA career ending when he committed to USC, and it surely wasn’t the situation he signed up for, but he did a pretty admirable job living up the impossible swirl of hype that preceded him.


Blake Griffin, 6-10, Freshman, Power Forward, Oklahoma

Griffin and #6 seed Oklahoma were blown out in the second round by #3 seed Louisville, but they did a nice job regardless advancing past St. Joe’s and don’t have anything to be ashamed of. Griffin did not get a great deal of opportunities to showcase his skill-set, as he struggled for touches in both games and ended up only getting 13 shots combined, but he made the most of his opportunities, converting on 10 of those. He saw a steady diet of double teams in both contests, but there is really no excuse for how poor of a job his teammates did in finding him in the post.

Griffin exhibited his typical combination of outstanding athleticism and terrific body control with his back to the basket and finishing around the paint, which is a cinch for him considering his huge hands, explosive leaping ability, great strength and extremely soft touch. He has excellent footwork and is very creative with the type of pivot moves he likes to use, often finishing with a sweet finesse move, a mix of scoop/flip shots and turnaround jumpers. If his first shot didn’t fall, he was extremely quick off his feet and tenacious as always looking for the offensive rebound. He looks a lot more patient than he did earlier in the season, and has definitely adapted himself nicely to college basketball, even if he may not be around for too much longer.

Defensively, Griffin still doesn’t seem to play with a great sense of urgency, either denying space in the post or closing out on shooters on the perimeter. This isn’t anything shocking considering his youth, but when you look at how hard he plays offensively, you have to wonder why that doesn’t translate as well to the other end of the floor. His skill-level also isn’t incredibly high at this point, as he struggles finishing with his left hand and doesn’t have much ability to face the basket, which he doesn’t really need to quite yet.

Griffin has a lot of room to improve on his all-around game, but also has a great deal of talent to help accomplish that. Once considered a lock to return for his sophomore season, a sprained MCL in one knee and a partially torn meniscus in another has at least given him cause for pause in regard to that final decision. Recent rumors since Oklahoma was eliminated indicate that he is a lot more likely to enter the draft than once thought, especially if his head coach Jeff Capel decides to leave for greener pastures (South Carolina?), which is looking more and more likely by the day apparently.


Eric Gordon, 6-3, Freshman, Shooting Guard, Indiana

It’s been a very difficult February and March for Eric Gordon, as he’s struggled badly with his shooting, hitting just 16 of his last 77 (21%) 3-pointers in his last 12 games. That slump did not magically snap as he went up against a tough Arkansas squad, and Gordon’s terrible shooting continued, hitting 3-15 from the field and 0-6 from behind the arc. Gordon hurt his wrist at the end of February as has not quite been the same since, although the ugly controversy surrounding former coach Kelvin Sampson being replaced by Dan Dakich probably didn’t help matters much either.

Neither has his shot selection, though…Gordon continued to heave up bowling balls from well beyond the NBA 3-point line (some of which weren’t even close), even though he obviously needed to get himself easier shots at the rim. When he did try and take the ball to the basket, though, he was often met by Arkansas 7-footer Steven Hill, who managed to send back at least three of his dunks. Gordon was forcing the issue inside the arc too, settling for tough fade-away jumpers with bigger and longer defenders draped all over him contesting his shot, and he had very little success on those either. The refs didn’t do him any favors, as he was called for a palming violation, a travel and two offensive fouls which could have gone either way. Gordon’s average ball-handling skills and lack of mid-range look like more and more of an issue these days—some scouts we spoke with are even questioning just how athletic he truly is, which we still somewhat disagree with. At this point, a lot of his problems seem to be mental, see him missing 4 of 6 free throws in this game as a perfect example, if the constant scowl he had on his face wasn’t a clear enough sign. That's really not a big surprise considering the turmoil Indiana has gone through, which has to have played a role in the slump he's in. Gordon should be able to rebound during the pre-draft process with some strong workouts and much needed positive PR, but there will be question marks about just how heavily to weigh the last 6 weeks of the regular season against the first 12 until he actually steps out on an NBA court.


DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, Freshman, Center, Texas A&M

Texas A&M lost a very close matchup with UCLA, but that didn’t have all that much to do with DeAndre Jordan’s play. The freshman came off the bench and contributed 6 points, 4 rebounds and 4 turnovers in 15 minutes. He was immediately called for a moving screen violation right after entering the game, but seemed to be off to a good start after making one very fluid pivot move in the lane for a nice looking basket, and then scoring on an athletic offensive rebound put-back dunk. Things mostly went south after that, as he was called for his second offensive foul for hooking Lorenzo Mata-Real while trying to establish position in the paint, and then committed another turnover after being doubled-teamed in the post, not having the strength or reaction time to handle it quickly enough—which has been typical for Jordan this season. He did score another basket on an easy layup after his man left him alone underneath the basket to double-team someone on the perimeter, but was finally benched late in the game after a foolish turnover on a lazy cross-court pass, and two rejections he suffered underneath the rim courtesy of Kevin Love.

Defensively, things weren’t any better. He left his defender wide open for at least four wide open jump-shots, not hedging and recovering quickly or aggressively enough on pick and roll plays, and did a poor job denying position inside the paint, which gave Kevin Love a fairly easy jump-hook shot right over him. His lack of awareness was really exposed when he was supposed to switch on a screen and cover Darren Collison, but instead tried to get his teammate to switch back in mid-possession, and ended up giving up an easy 3-pointer.

Jordan did not finish off the season very well at all, scoring in double-digits just four times in all of January, February and March, after he was able to do so nine times in November and December. It’s pretty obvious by now that Jordan is a project with a capital P, one that will demand a great deal of nurturing and patience before he’s able to contribute much of anything in the NBA. He obviously needs another year in college to help prepare him for the pros, but the danger of not improving enough and damaging his stock badly may be too much to risk, even if it’s rumored that he is currently leaning towards staying. That’s the sad state of the NBA draft unfortunately. Jordan will have to develop a great work ethic and love for the game if he’s going to have any chance of achieving his great potential.


Chase Budinger, 6-7, Sophomore, SG/SF, Arizona

Budinger did a good job in this NCAA tournament game of not only being extremely productive, but also displaying better potential in various parts of the scouting report that were thought to be weaknesses. He was extremely aggressive for one looking for his shot and trying to make things happen, moving off the ball extremely well and showing absolutely no hesitation spotting up with his terrific stroke when an opportunity presented itself—which hasn’t always been the case this year to say the least. He also showed a little more versatility on the offensive end, handling the ball and finishing in transition, and beating his defender off the bounce with an aggressive slashing move on at least five separation occasions from what we counted, either getting fouled or scoring off the glass in the process. He scored 23 points on 8-13 shooting, adding 5 rebounds and 3 assists, and got to the free throw line seven times—a very nice all-around offensive performance to leave a good taste in scout’s mouths if he indeed decides to enter the draft.

The other end of the ball was a completely different story, though. Budinger struggled badly on virtually every defensive possession he was directly involved with, struggling to fight through screens, giving up too much space on the perimeter, not being very physical or aggressive, getting beat off the dribble due to his poor lateral quickness, and at times not even getting a hand up trying to contest shots. In the 10 defensive possessions we counted that he was directly responsible for, he got scored on nine times (giving up five 3-pointers, and one 3-point play), for a total of 24 points. The one “stop” he got (more due to his matchup missing an open look than any great defense) resulted in an offensive rebound and put-back for West Virginia. This part of his game is a big concern NBA scouts have with Budinger, and it’s something he must put more effort into at the next level.

Budinger came into this season sporting somewhat unrealistic expectations about the type of player he truly is, partially stemming from fact that Lute Olsen called him the “best freshman I ever coached.” Some were disappointed that he failed to assert himself as a go-to guy for Arizona, as that’s just not the player he is. Even though he couldn’t quite live up to the hype, he is still an excellent prospect, and will likely develop into an outstanding role player in the NBA. With Olsen now returning to Arizona after a year off, Budinger has a tough decision in front of him regarding whether to leave for the NBA.

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