Just By the Numbers: The 2010 Point Guard Crop
We only have one international player in our rankings, Angelico Biellas Pietro Aradori. His strong season in Serie A ranks him favorably in some metrics against an intriguing group of shooting guards who should have a bit impact on the 2010 from picks 20 though 45.
To gain a better understanding of the statistics used, visit the glossary by Noah Libby-Haines. Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.
Point Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||23.6|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||23.4|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||19.6|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||19.1|
This stat shows us how well these shooting guards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking competition-level, individual team roles and teammates into consideration.
Shooting guards are often the go-to guys on many basketball teams, the ones responsible for going out and creating offense when everything else breaks down, so it can be interesting to look at a prospects scoring proficiency in college.
Weve written about Aubrey Coleman on a number of occasions in the past few months, and it is no surprise that he ranks as the top per-40 scorer in this group by more than 2 full points. Included in the second tier are potential first-round picks Jordan Crawford and Dominic Jones.
Placing fourth and fifth are Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg. Turners placement on this list is interesting. Often lauded for his versatility, this acts as a reminder of how well Turner scored the ball last season in addition to all the other things he brought to the table. While he is certainly proficient at making plays for others, Turner is more than capable of going out and creating shots for himself when the situation calls for it, which was pretty often at Ohio State.
Amongst the higher ranked prospects, Elliot Williams places fairly well, while Willie Warrens struggles at Oklahoma last season undoubtedly hurt him here. Terrico White and Lance Stephenson are know for their ability to make plays on the offensive end, but their lack of great jump shooting ability limits their per-minute production.
Avery Bradley and Andy Rautins rank last, well behind the rest of the pack. Bradleys placement is a little disappointing considering that hes not a particularly prolific passer either. Individual team roles are not accounted for in this metric, making it important for us to look at other stats for hints on that.
Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||7.7|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||5.6|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||4.9|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||2|
This stat tells us a lot about the role these prospects played for their team, as well as the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability.
Andy Rautins, Jon Scheyer, and Osiris Eldridge are head and shoulder above their peers by this metric. Rautins was little more than a shooting specialist at Syracuse, while Scheyer used the threat of his shooting ability to open up other parts of his game. Eldridge, an Illinois State product, is one of the shorter players on our list, and was incredibly aggressive playing in a small conference. Jordan Crawford and Terrico White round out the top-5, and are both guilty of forcing some tough shots.
On the other side of this list we find Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg. Both players used their long-strides to attack the basket when operating from the perimeter rather than taking available jump shots. Both will likely need to work on their shooting range in the pros, even if they do have nice mid-range games which will be more effective with the increased spacing we find in the NBA. Lance Stephenson was comparably prone to attacking instead of shooting the three, but got by with his strength at the basket.
Elliot Williams, Willie Warren, and Dominique Jones all rank around average as aggressive scorers for their respective teams. To really evaluate their success in this area well need to study their efficiency numbers.
Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||0.48|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||0.36|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||0.34|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||0.12|
This stat examines how heavily a player relied on the 3-ball to score points, which can indirectly tell us something about a prospects ball-handling skills, athleticism, and shot selection.
Taking time out of the equation and simply looking at how often players shot threes in relation to other shots, we find Andy Rautins far further ahead of the pack than he was in the last table. With 81% of his shots coming from beyond the arc, he is the epitome of a pure shooter. Jon Scheyer and Osiris Eldridge take second and this, with the athletic pair of Terrico White and Elliot Williams finishing in fourth and fifth respectively. Clearly, athleticism is not always a determining factor of how heavily these prospects relied on their outside shots.
At the bottom of our rankings are a slew of talented scorers who got to the rim at a high rate, but are also limited by their lack of confidence in their jump shots. Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg used their long strides to turn the corner and attack the rim in lieu of shooting the three. Lance Stephenson used his strong frame to bully his way to the rim, and Aubrey Coleman proved to be one of the top slashers in college basketball with his first step.
Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||9.5|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||6.7|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||5.2|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||4.4|
Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.
Based on what we saw on the last table, it isnt shocking to see Dominque Jones and Aubrey Coleman amongst the most frequent visitors to the charity stripe in this group. More prone to attacking off the dribble, both players draw a lot of contact on their drives, as so Jeremy Lin and Jerome Dyson. None of those four prospects ranked highly in the last category, with Elliot Williams being the big exception in the top-5. Despite taking a lot of threes relative to total field goals, he got to line at an exceptional rate thanks to his tendency to attack the rim instead of pulling up for jump shots in the mid-range area.
Evan Turner and Willie Warren both rank above average by this metric, while Jordan Crawford and Terrico White both fall closer to the bottom of our list. Both players have the athleticism to draw contact at the rim, but prefer to settle for some tough shots from the midrange. Avery Bradley ranks dead last here as his lack of physical strength is one of his biggest weaknesses as a prospect, and he really struggled to get to the basket effectively last season.
Free Throw Attempts Per Possession
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||0.45|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||0.3|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||0.3|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||0.24|
Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesnt show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.
Unlike last season, where the rankings on this table had some significant differences from the last one, this seasons remains fairly similar. Elliot Williams moves into the top spot, with Willie Warren moving into the top-5 for Jerome Dyson, but little changes near the top of our rankings. Williams rank here is a great indicator of why some teams are high on his talents. His ability to get to the line would help his efficiency early in his career as he continues to develop. Jeremy Lins placement near the top here is very interesting, and shows how well his quickness served him at the Ivy League conference level.
True Shooting Percentage
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||62%|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||59%|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||57%|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||53%|
True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. A player who makes 4/10 3-pointers obviously contributes the same amount of points as a player who made 6/10 2-pointerswhich doesn't show up in the traditional field goal percentage stat. This stat attempts to adjust for that, as well as their free throws.
The two top prospects on our list in this category couldnt be less similar, but still scored the ball at a high rate. Andy Rautins was almost exclusively a shooter for one of the best teams in the nation while Jeremy Lin garnered national attention for merits as a slasher and all-around player for Harvard. Pietro Aradori makes his first appearance in the top-5, shooting 62% against very solid competition in the Eurocup. Aradori is one of the most polished players on our rankings, and that shows here. Elliot Williams and Evan Turner finish fourth and fifth respectively, which shows that high true-shooting percentages arent exclusive to pure shooters.
Terrico White, Lance Stephenson, and Avery Bradley do not show well here, despite their billing as potential first round prospects. Based on the order of prospects on this list, their lack of trips to the charity stripe clearly arent helping them in this metric. Jerome Dyson finishes last here despite getting to the line at a much higher rate than any of those three players.
Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||6.9|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||4|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||3.1|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||2.2|
Beginning his run at the top of our rankings, Evan Turner is head and shoulders above his peers by this metric. Much like Terrence Williams last season, Turners versatility ranks him near the top of the list in a host of different categories. The two top players in true shooting also place near the top of these rankings. Andy Rautins brought more to the table than just his jump shot, and Lin was able to get his teammates involved when he put the ball on the floor. Jon Scheyer, Jerome Dyson, and Willie Warren were known as scorers on the college level, but their passing ability allowed them to spend some time as the primary distributor on their team.
This list also exposes which players didnt do much playmaking for their teams last season, regardless of circumstances. Terrico White is considered to have potential at the point guard position, but he finishes as the least prolific passer in our group because of his lack of aggressiveness this season after return of Chris Warren. Pietro Aradori simply was looking to score when he had the ball in his hands last season. The same can be said about Aubrey Coleman. Avery Bradley spent little time on the ball and functioned mostly as a spot up player, limiting his ability to accumulate assists.
Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||5|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||3.3|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||3.3|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||3.1|
Considering how much time Evan Turner spent running the point for Ohio State, it is not at all shocking to see him at the top of this list. Though he did a great job setting up his teammates with good passes, Turner did have some issues maintaining possession in traffic since he was asked to create so much on his own. Jerome Dyson, Willie Warren, Jeremy Lin, and Elliot Williams round out the top-5, and were all amongst the assist leaders as well.
Jon Scheyer is the most impressive player in this category. Considering that he ran the point for Duke for stretches, his turnover rate is remarkable. Hes one of the few players on this list that place significantly lower that they did in the assist rankings.
Assist to Turnover Ratio
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||1.36|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||1.24|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||0.99|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||0.67|
Putting the last two tables together, we see that Jon Scheyer indeed was the most efficient passer in our group. Hes one of the most savvy players in this draft, and the shows here. Andy Rautins is a similarly gifted player, but wasnt quite as good at handling ball pressure. Jeremy Lin, Manny Harris, and Patrick Christopher round out the top-5, with Harris being the top prospect amongst the three. Mostly known for his scoring ability, Harris does a nice job making decisions as a passer, though his shot selection isnt always ideal.
Evan Turner and Elliot Williams place just above the middle of the pick,, while Willie Warren and Lance Stephenson are the least efficient passers amongst college players. Pietro Aradori finishes last here, mostly because his role in Biella revolved around scoring the ball, not setting up his teammates.
Pure Point Rating
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||-1.25|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||-1.45|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||-2.65|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||-4.42|
Accounting for the fact that turnovers are statistically worse than assists are positive, and for pace, Jon Hollingers pure point rating builds on the A/TO ratio that many of us use to gauge the efficiency of points guards. This stat backs up the things we learned above: Jon Scheyer is the most efficient passer in this group.
None of the shooting guards we have projected to be selected in the first round impress by this measure, with Avery Bradley looking good relative to the other top players because of his limited turnovers. Evan Turner and Elliot Williams once again rank right around average, while Willie Warrens PPR seems to speak to the time hell need to adapt to a role as a primary ball handler should a team ask him to make such a transition on the next level.
Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||10.5|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||6.7|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||6.3|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||5|
Rebounding is an important aspect of the game at any position, and having a player who possesses the length, athleticism, toughness and timing to get his team extra possessions can be a huge asset. With that said, its important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.
Evan Turner, unsurprisingly, ranks as the top player in this category. His ability to crash the boards ranks him head and shoulders above his peers here. Lance Stephenson, and the slightly undersized Aubrey Coleman take the second spot on our list despite the disparity between their physical tools. Manny Harris is the last player above 7.0 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted.
Terrico White ranks right around average here, with Elliot Williams, Willie Warren, and Avery Bradley ranking near the bottom of the list. Bradley certain doesnt benefit from playing next to the prolific Damion James, but none of those players seem like strong candidates to have a significant impact on the boards for their respective teams next season.
Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||2|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||1.9|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||1.9|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||1.4|
A wing's ability to get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically, in terms of quickness and length, and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation.
Jeremy Lin again comes away with the top spot here, thanks to his consistent effort level and relative level of competition. Pietro Aradori is a surprise in the second spot, as he isnt a great athlete, but is a very smart defensive player. The same can be said for Andy Rautins. Manny Harris and Aubrey Coleman are the other two players in the top-5 and are two of the more aggressive defenders amongst this group of prospects.
Evan Turner sits just outside of the top-5, while Avery Bradley sits right about average. Many of the top prospects at this position land in the bottom-5. Terrico White, Willie Warren, and Lance Stephenson didnt create too many turnovers last season. Considering White and Stephensons wingspans, it is pretty surprising to see them rank so low on this list.
Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||1|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||0.6|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||0.4|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||0|
This is yet another stat that can provide some insight into the physical traits that these shooting guards use defensively and where they spent most of their time defensively.
Jeremy Lin completes his sweep atop our defensive categories, clearly surprising quite a few shooters with his athleticism last season. Evan Turner takes the second spot thanks to his excellent length. Avery Bradley enjoys the same benefits, even though hes a bit shorter. Jerome Dyson and Dominique Jones both use their explosiveness fairly well to adjust some shots on occasion as well.
Amongst the least productive shot blockers in this group are Pietro Aradori, Elliot Williams, and Willie Warren. Obviously, few teams are going to put much stock in the shot blocking presence brought to the table by any shooting guard.
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||68.7|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||65.5|
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||65.4|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||65.4|
No team runs away with this category like UNC did last year, or the way the Bakersfield Jam did in our point guard analysis, but Texas played as fast as Italian League participant Angelico Biella. The disparity between Biellas possessions in Serie A and the EuroCup is notable. The top prospects are all over the board in these rankings, with Evan Turner playing on one of the slower paced teams on this list, which put an even bigger burden on him to be their Mr. Everything on almost each and every possession.
Player Efficiency Rating
|Evan Turner||Ohio State||NCAA||30.4|
|Dominique Jones||South Florida||NCAA||26.3|
|Pietro Aradori||Lauretana Biella||EUROCUP||18.8|
|Osiris Eldridge||Illinois State||NCAA||18.7|
Another one of John Hollingers gems, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't wise to compare players across different leagues, though, since an average score of 15 (the median) would be a totally different figure in another league, with its own averages. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences.
Evan Turner has the highest PER, which comes as no surprising considering all the things that he does well. Aubrey Coleman and Jeremy Lin were highly productive scorers, and its interesting how Lins defensive ability and offensive efficiency allows him to keep pace with Colemans incredible scoring ability. Dominique Jones and Manny Harris round out the top-5 as two of the more prolific offensive players in our rankings.
Avery Bradley, Terrico White, Willie Warren and Lance Stephenson rank in the bottom-5 of this metric. Clearly, statistics dont tell the whole story for this group of players. Bradleys case isnt helped here at all in any of the categories we studied. Though Evan Turner fully justifies his projection with his numbers, most of the other high-caliber prospects at this position werent as dominant as many of their less heralded peers.