Just By the Numbers: The 2010 Shooting Guard Crop

Just By the Numbers: The 2010 Shooting Guard Crop
Jun 21, 2010, 01:02 am
In part our second analysis of basic statistics, we take a look at the top shooting guards in the 2010 NBA draft. Though Evan Turner is the headliner of this class, debate continues about which player to rank below him at the top of the second tier.

Just By the Numbers: The 2010 Point Guard Crop

We only have one international player in our rankings, Angelico Biella’s Pietro Aradori. His strong season in Serie A ranks him favorably in some metrics against an intriguing group of shooting guards who should have a bit impact on the 2010 from picks 20 though 45.

To gain a better understanding of the statistics used, visit the glossary by Noah Libby-Haines. Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.

Point Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA25.9
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA23.6
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA23.6
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA23.4
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA22.6
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN22.1
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA21.6
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA21.5
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA20.3
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA20
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA19.9
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA19.8
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP19.6
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA19.1
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA18.2
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA17.8
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA17.4
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA14.3
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA14.1

This stat shows us how well these shooting guards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking competition-level, individual team roles and teammates into consideration.

Shooting guards are often the go-to guys on many basketball teams, the ones responsible for going out and creating offense when everything else breaks down, so it can be interesting to look at a prospects’ scoring proficiency in college.

We’ve written about Aubrey Coleman on a number of occasions in the past few months, and it is no surprise that he ranks as the top per-40 scorer in this group by more than 2 full points. Included in the second tier are potential first-round picks Jordan Crawford and Dominic Jones.

Placing fourth and fifth are Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg. Turner’s placement on this list is interesting. Often lauded for his versatility, this acts as a reminder of how well Turner scored the ball last season in addition to all the other things he brought to the table. While he is certainly proficient at making plays for others, Turner is more than capable of going out and creating shots for himself when the situation calls for it, which was pretty often at Ohio State.

Amongst the higher ranked prospects, Elliot Williams places fairly well, while Willie Warren’s struggles at Oklahoma last season undoubtedly hurt him here. Terrico White and Lance Stephenson are know for their ability to make plays on the offensive end, but their lack of great jump shooting ability limits their per-minute production.

Avery Bradley and Andy Rautins rank last, well behind the rest of the pack. Bradley’s placement is a little disappointing considering that he’s not a particularly prolific passer either. Individual team roles are not accounted for in this metric, making it important for us to look at other stats for hints on that.

Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA8
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA7.9
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA7.7
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA6.6
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA6.1
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA6
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA5.8
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN5.8
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA5.6
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA5.6
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA5.6
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP4.9
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA4.7
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA4.7
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA4
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA3.7
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA3
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA2.9
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA2

This stat tells us a lot about the role these prospects played for their team, as well as the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability.

Andy Rautins, Jon Scheyer, and Osiris Eldridge are head and shoulder above their peers by this metric. Rautins was little more than a shooting specialist at Syracuse, while Scheyer used the threat of his shooting ability to open up other parts of his game. Eldridge, an Illinois State product, is one of the shorter players on our list, and was incredibly aggressive playing in a small conference. Jordan Crawford and Terrico White round out the top-5, and are both guilty of forcing some tough shots.

On the other side of this list we find Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg. Both players used their long-strides to attack the basket when operating from the perimeter rather than taking available jump shots. Both will likely need to work on their shooting range in the pros, even if they do have nice mid-range games which will be more effective with the increased spacing we find in the NBA. Lance Stephenson was comparably prone to attacking instead of shooting the three, but got by with his strength at the basket.

Elliot Williams, Willie Warren, and Dominique Jones all rank around average as aggressive scorers for their respective teams. To really evaluate their success in this area we’ll need to study their efficiency numbers.

Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA0.81
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA0.54
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA0.48
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA0.42
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA0.4
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA0.4
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA0.38
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA0.36
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA0.36
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN0.36
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP0.36
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA0.34
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA0.31
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA0.3
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA0.27
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA0.22
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA0.2
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA0.16
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA0.12

This stat examines how heavily a player relied on the 3-ball to score points, which can indirectly tell us something about a prospect’s ball-handling skills, athleticism, and shot selection.

Taking time out of the equation and simply looking at how often players shot threes in relation to other shots, we find Andy Rautins far further ahead of the pack than he was in the last table. With 81% of his shots coming from beyond the arc, he is the epitome of a pure shooter. Jon Scheyer and Osiris Eldridge take second and this, with the athletic pair of Terrico White and Elliot Williams finishing in fourth and fifth respectively. Clearly, athleticism is not always a determining factor of how heavily these prospects relied on their outside shots.

At the bottom of our rankings are a slew of talented scorers who got to the rim at a high rate, but are also limited by their lack of confidence in their jump shots. Evan Turner and Sylven Landesberg used their long strides to turn the corner and attack the rim in lieu of shooting the three. Lance Stephenson used his strong frame to bully his way to the rim, and Aubrey Coleman proved to be one of the top slashers in college basketball with his first step.

Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA9.5
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA9.2
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA9.1
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA8.2
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA7.5
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA7.3
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA7.3
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA6.7
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA6.6
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA6.1
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN6.1
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP5.2
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA5.1
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA4.9
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA4.4
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA4.1
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA3
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA2.7
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA2.4

Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.

Based on what we saw on the last table, it isn’t shocking to see Dominque Jones and Aubrey Coleman amongst the most frequent visitors to the charity stripe in this group. More prone to attacking off the dribble, both players draw a lot of contact on their drives, as so Jeremy Lin and Jerome Dyson. None of those four prospects ranked highly in the last category, with Elliot Williams being the big exception in the top-5. Despite taking a lot of threes relative to total field goals, he got to line at an exceptional rate thanks to his tendency to attack the rim instead of pulling up for jump shots in the mid-range area.

Evan Turner and Willie Warren both rank above average by this metric, while Jordan Crawford and Terrico White both fall closer to the bottom of our list. Both players have the athleticism to draw contact at the rim, but prefer to settle for some tough shots from the midrange. Avery Bradley ranks dead last here as his lack of physical strength is one of his biggest weaknesses as a prospect, and he really struggled to get to the basket effectively last season.

Free Throw Attempts Per Possession

Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA0.48
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA0.47
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA0.45
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA0.4
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA0.38
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA0.37
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA0.37
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA0.35
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA0.32
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN0.31
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA0.3
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP0.3
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA0.28
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA0.26
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA0.25
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA0.24
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA0.22
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA0.2
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA0.17

Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesn’t show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.

Unlike last season, where the rankings on this table had some significant differences from the last one, this season’s remains fairly similar. Elliot Williams moves into the top spot, with Willie Warren moving into the top-5 for Jerome Dyson, but little changes near the top of our rankings. Williams’ rank here is a great indicator of why some teams are high on his talents. His ability to get to the line would help his efficiency early in his career as he continues to develop. Jeremy Lin’s placement near the top here is very interesting, and shows how well his quickness served him at the Ivy League conference level.

True Shooting Percentage

Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA64%
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA64%
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP62%
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA61%
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA59%
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN59%
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA58%
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA58%
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA57%
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA57%
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA55%
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA55%
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA54%
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA53%
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA53%
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA52%
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA50%
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA50%
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA49%

True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. A player who makes 4/10 3-pointers obviously contributes the same amount of points as a player who made 6/10 2-pointers—which doesn't show up in the traditional field goal percentage stat. This stat attempts to adjust for that, as well as their free throws.

The two top prospects on our list in this category couldn’t be less similar, but still scored the ball at a high rate. Andy Rautins was almost exclusively a shooter for one of the best teams in the nation while Jeremy Lin garnered national attention for merits as a slasher and all-around player for Harvard. Pietro Aradori makes his first appearance in the top-5, shooting 62% against very solid competition in the Eurocup. Aradori is one of the most polished players on our rankings, and that shows here. Elliot Williams and Evan Turner finish fourth and fifth respectively, which shows that high true-shooting percentages aren’t exclusive to pure shooters.

Terrico White, Lance Stephenson, and Avery Bradley do not show well here, despite their billing as potential first round prospects. Based on the order of prospects on this list, their lack of trips to the charity stripe clearly aren’t helping them in this metric. Jerome Dyson finishes last here despite getting to the line at a much higher rate than any of those three players.

Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA6.9
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA5.7
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA5.4
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA5.3
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA5
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA5
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA4.8
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA4.5
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA4
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA3.7
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA3.5
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA3.3
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA3.1
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA2.6
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA2.6
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA2.3
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN2.3
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP2.2
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA1.8

Beginning his run at the top of our rankings, Evan Turner is head and shoulders above his peers by this metric. Much like Terrence Williams last season, Turner’s versatility ranks him near the top of the list in a host of different categories. The two top players in true shooting also place near the top of these rankings. Andy Rautins brought more to the table than just his jump shot, and Lin was able to get his teammates involved when he put the ball on the floor. Jon Scheyer, Jerome Dyson, and Willie Warren were known as scorers on the college level, but their passing ability allowed them to spend some time as the primary distributor on their team.

This list also exposes which players didn’t do much playmaking for their teams last season, regardless of circumstances. Terrico White is considered to have potential at the point guard position, but he finishes as the least prolific passer in our group because of his lack of aggressiveness this season after return of Chris Warren. Pietro Aradori simply was looking to score when he had the ball in his hands last season. The same can be said about Aubrey Coleman. Avery Bradley spent little time on the ball and functioned mostly as a spot up player, limiting his ability to accumulate assists.

Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted

Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA5
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA4.6
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA4.6
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA3.8
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA3.5
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA3.4
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA3.4
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA3.3
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA3.3
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN3.3
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP3.3
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA3.1
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA3
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA2.8
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA2.3
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA1.9
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA1.8
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA1.6
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA1.6

Considering how much time Evan Turner spent running the point for Ohio State, it is not at all shocking to see him at the top of this list. Though he did a great job setting up his teammates with good passes, Turner did have some issues maintaining possession in traffic since he was asked to create so much on his own. Jerome Dyson, Willie Warren, Jeremy Lin, and Elliot Williams round out the top-5, and were all amongst the assist leaders as well.

Jon Scheyer is the most impressive player in this category. Considering that he ran the point for Duke for stretches, his turnover rate is remarkable. He’s one of the few players on this list that place significantly lower that they did in the assist rankings.

Assist to Turnover Ratio
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA2.98
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA1.74
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA1.43
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA1.43
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA1.42
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA1.37
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA1.36
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA1.28
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA1.26
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA1.24
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA1.19
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA1.11
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA1.11
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA1.09
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA1.08
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA1.04
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA0.99
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN0.7
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP0.67

Putting the last two tables together, we see that Jon Scheyer indeed was the most efficient passer in our group. He’s one of the most savvy players in this draft, and the shows here. Andy Rautins is a similarly gifted player, but wasn’t quite as good at handling ball pressure. Jeremy Lin, Manny Harris, and Patrick Christopher round out the top-5, with Harris being the top prospect amongst the three. Mostly known for his scoring ability, Harris does a nice job making decisions as a passer, though his shot selection isn’t always ideal.

Evan Turner and Elliot Williams place just above the middle of the pick,, while Willie Warren and Lance Stephenson are the least efficient passers amongst college players. Pietro Aradori finishes last here, mostly because his role in Biella revolved around scoring the ball, not setting up his teammates.

Pure Point Rating

Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA4.29
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA1.31
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA-0.26
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA-0.43
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA-0.51
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA-0.52
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA-1.15
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA-1.17
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA-1.25
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA-1.37
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA-1.45
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA-1.6
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA-1.67
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA-2.65
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA-2.66
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA-3.23
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA-3.43
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP-4.42
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN-4.44

Accounting for the fact that turnovers are statistically worse than assists are positive, and for pace, Jon Hollinger’s pure point rating builds on the A/TO ratio that many of us use to gauge the efficiency of points guards. This stat backs up the things we learned above: Jon Scheyer is the most efficient passer in this group.

None of the shooting guards we have projected to be selected in the first round impress by this measure, with Avery Bradley looking good relative to the other top players because of his limited turnovers. Evan Turner and Elliot Williams once again rank right around average, while Willie Warren’s PPR seems to speak to the time he’ll need to adapt to a role as a primary ball handler should a team ask him to make such a transition on the next level.

Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA10.5
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA7.5
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA7.5
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA7.2
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA6.7
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN6.6
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA6.4
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP6.3
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA6.2
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA5.5
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA5.4
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA5.3
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA5
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA5
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA4.8
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA4
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA4
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA3.9
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA3.5

Rebounding is an important aspect of the game at any position, and having a player who possesses the length, athleticism, toughness and timing to get his team extra possessions can be a huge asset. With that said, it’s important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.

Evan Turner, unsurprisingly, ranks as the top player in this category. His ability to crash the boards ranks him head and shoulders above his peers here. Lance Stephenson, and the slightly undersized Aubrey Coleman take the second spot on our list despite the disparity between their physical tools. Manny Harris is the last player above 7.0 rebounds per-40 minutes pace adjusted.

Terrico White ranks right around average here, with Elliot Williams, Willie Warren, and Avery Bradley ranking near the bottom of the list. Bradley certain doesn’t benefit from playing next to the prolific Damion James, but none of those players seem like strong candidates to have a significant impact on the boards for their respective teams next season.

Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA3
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN2.8
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA2.7
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA2.3
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA2.1
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA2
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA1.9
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA1.9
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA1.8
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA1.8
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA1.6
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA1.6
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA1.5
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA1.5
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP1.4
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA1.3
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA1.2
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA1.1
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA1

A wing's ability to get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically, in terms of quickness and length, and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation.

Jeremy Lin again comes away with the top spot here, thanks to his consistent effort level and relative level of competition. Pietro Aradori is a surprise in the second spot, as he isn’t a great athlete, but is a very smart defensive player. The same can be said for Andy Rautins. Manny Harris and Aubrey Coleman are the other two players in the top-5 and are two of the more aggressive defenders amongst this group of prospects.

Evan Turner sits just outside of the top-5, while Avery Bradley sits right about average. Many of the top prospects at this position land in the bottom-5. Terrico White, Willie Warren, and Lance Stephenson didn’t create too many turnovers last season. Considering White and Stephenson’s wingspans, it is pretty surprising to see them rank so low on this list.

Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA1.3
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA1
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA0.7
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA0.6
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA0.6
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA0.4
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA0.4
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA0.4
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA0.3
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA0.3
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA0.2
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA0.2
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA0.2
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA0.2
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA0.1
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA0.1
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA0.1
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN0.1
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP0

This is yet another stat that can provide some insight into the physical traits that these shooting guards use defensively and where they spent most of their time defensively.

Jeremy Lin completes his sweep atop our defensive categories, clearly surprising quite a few shooters with his athleticism last season. Evan Turner takes the second spot thanks to his excellent length. Avery Bradley enjoys the same benefits, even though he’s a bit shorter. Jerome Dyson and Dominique Jones both use their explosiveness fairly well to adjust some shots on occasion as well.

Amongst the least productive shot blockers in this group are Pietro Aradori, Elliot Williams, and Willie Warren. Obviously, few teams are going to put much stock in the shot blocking presence brought to the table by any shooting guard.

Team Possesions
NameTeamLeagueTm Pos/g
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA74.5
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN73.6
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA71.9
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA71.4
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA71.2
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA71
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA69
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP68.7
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA68.5
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA68.3
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA68
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA67.6
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA67
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA66.5
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA65.5
Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA65.4
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA65.4
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA63.8
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA62.6

No team runs away with this category like UNC did last year, or the way the Bakersfield Jam did in our point guard analysis, but Texas played as fast as Italian League participant Angelico Biella. The disparity between Biella’s possessions in Serie A and the EuroCup is notable. The top prospects are all over the board in these rankings, with Evan Turner playing on one of the slower paced teams on this list, which put an even bigger burden on him to be their Mr. Everything on almost each and every possession.

Player Efficiency Rating

Evan TurnerOhio StateNCAA30.4
Aubrey ColemanHoustonNCAA28.4
Jeremy LinHarvardNCAA27.2
Dominique JonesSouth FloridaNCAA26.3
Manny HarrisMichiganNCAA25.8
Jon ScheyerDukeNCAA25.5
Jordan CrawfordXavierNCAA24.8
Elliot WilliamsMemphisNCAA23.8
Sylven LandesbergVirginiaNCAA23
Pietro AradoriBiellaITALIAN21.7
Patrick ChristopherCaliforniaNCAA20.8
Andy RautinsSyracuseNCAA19.3
Pietro AradoriLauretana BiellaEUROCUP18.8
Osiris EldridgeIllinois StateNCAA18.7
Terrico WhiteMississippiNCAA18.7
Willie WarrenOklahomaNCAA18.6
Lance StephensonCincinnatiNCAA17.7
Jerome DysonConnecticutNCAA17.6
Avery BradleyTexasNCAA14.5

Another one of John Hollinger’s gems, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't wise to compare players across different leagues, though, since an average score of 15 (the median) would be a totally different figure in another league, with its own averages. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences.

Evan Turner has the highest PER, which comes as no surprising considering all the things that he does well. Aubrey Coleman and Jeremy Lin were highly productive scorers, and it’s interesting how Lin’s defensive ability and offensive efficiency allows him to keep pace with Coleman’s incredible scoring ability. Dominique Jones and Manny Harris round out the top-5 as two of the more prolific offensive players in our rankings.

Avery Bradley, Terrico White, Willie Warren and Lance Stephenson rank in the bottom-5 of this metric. Clearly, statistics don’t tell the whole story for this group of players. Bradley’s case isn’t helped here at all in any of the categories we studied. Though Evan Turner fully justifies his projection with his numbers, most of the other high-caliber prospects at this position weren’t as dominant as many of their less heralded peers.

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