Just By the Numbers: the 2011 Guard Crop

Just By the Numbers: the 2011 Guard Crop
Jun 17, 2011, 06:17 pm
In our first analysis of basic statistics, we take a look at the top 20 guards in the 2011 NBA draft. One of the deeper, more versatile positions in this class, we let the numbers do the talking

Unlike last season where we had a fairly cut and dry group of big time college prospects to look at, this group features a wide array of small school scorers, mid major distributors, skilled two guards, and intriguing physical specimens. We also only have one international player in this group, Le Mans's Antoine Diot, who is automatically eligible for the draft since as a 1989 prospect. With such a wide spectrum of players to look at, we should have no trouble identifying which players stood out on paper among their peer group.

To gain a better understanding of the statistics used, visit the glossary by Noah Libby-Haines. Interested in making your own statistical comparisons? You can do so here.

Point Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA30
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA26.7
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA25.3
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA24.7
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA24.4
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA24.1
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA24.1
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA23.1
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA22.1
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA21.3
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA20.7
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA20.4
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA19.5
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA19.4
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA18.5
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA17.6
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA17.6
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA16.3
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA15.7
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA14.9
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP12.7
Cory JosephTexasNCAA12.6
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH11.8
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA9.1

This stat tells us plainly how often these guards put the ball in the basket, adjusting for minutes played and pace, which levels the playing field as best as we can without taking competition-level, individual team roles, and teammates into consideration. This is a good place to start with this group of players, as it tells us about their versatility, the range of roles they played last season, and a little bit about each prospect's mentality as a playmaker or scorer.

It shouldn't be at all surprising to anyone who kept tabs on the college game in 2011 to see Jimmer Fredette and Kemba Walker among the top-3 players in this group since they were arguably among the top-3 players in the country overall. Fredette carried BYU to national prominence, while the first two months of Walker's season rank among the best we've ever seen from a 6'0 scorer and he finished the job the job with a National Championship. Last season we saw a slew of undersized two-guards hold down these spots, but Fredette and Walker will both be expected to run the point at the next level while still offering an offensive punch.

Joining those two players in the top-5 are three of the top mid-major players in the country in Andrew Goudelock, Charles Jenkins, and Norris Cole. Each player was a dominant figure in their respective conferences, but each also has a few unique traits. Goudelock is the most jump shot oriented of the three, while Jenkins's size gives him potential at both guard positions. Cole was late bloomer who had a number of monster performances for CSU and made strides in his development every year.

Teammates Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith sit ominously close to one another, while Brandon Knight and Darius Morris rank right in the middle of the pack among other guards projected to go in the first round.

Antoine Diot is near the bottom of this list, highlighting the difference between the professional game in Europe and the college game. He's joined by Cory Joseph and Josh Selby, two freshman who played for deep, talented Big XII powers.

Julyan Stone takes the last spot on this list, but at 6'7, he's amongst the taller players in this group and is noted for his versatility, not just his ability to put the ball in the basket.

Three Point Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA9.8
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA8.8
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA8.3
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA7.5
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA6.8
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA6.8
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA6.8
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP6.4
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA6.1
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA5.9
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA5.9
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA5.8
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA5.8
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA5.7
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH5.3
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA5.2
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA4.9
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA4.9
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA4.8
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA4.7
Cory JosephTexasNCAA4.2
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA2.2
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA2
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA1.6

This stat tells us a lot about the role these prospects played for their respective teams, as well as the confidence they had in their perimeter shooting ability and the freedom they were given by their former coaches.

Andrew Goudelock brought the ball up the floor regularly for Charleston, but often wound up off the ball as their sets developed. He showed his deep range to scouts at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament, and won't hesitate to pull the trigger from almost anywhere, a-la Jimmer Fredette, when he has the green light. Shelvin Mack and Ben Hansbrough make appearances here, and both players made some incredibly timely jump shots for their respective teams this season. They'll need to do that in workouts to solidify their draft socks as well.

The top point guards in this group can be found scattered through these rankings. Though Kyrie Irving proved to be a capable spot-up shooter, he was not overly aggressive looking to attempt such shots. Brandon Knight, Reggie Jackson, and Kemba Walker rank fairly prominently here. Knight is not among the top ranked players despite his perimeter orientation, mostly because he attempted a considerable amount of shots just a step inside the arc. Walker and Jackson were both just as apt to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim as they were to pull the trigger from long range, pushing them down a bit.

Among the lower ranked prospects are Julyan Stone, Brad Wanamaker, who left the shooting to Ashton Gibbs; Darius Morris, who made a bigger mark as a slasher and passer; and Cory Joseph. Joseph gained notoriety on the high school level for his picturesque jumper, so it is interesting to see how his limited role at Texas didn't revolve around that part of his game. Norris Cole is surprisingly low on this list considering his placement on the last one, since most high-usage guards shoot quite a few threes, we'll see why he was able to score so prolifically without relying on his jump shot when we see how regularly he got to the charity stripe.

Three Point Attempts Per Field Goal Attempt

Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP0.6
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH0.52
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA0.5
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA0.49
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA0.49
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA0.46
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA0.45
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA0.45
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA0.43
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA0.41
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA0.41
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA0.41
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA0.39
Cory JosephTexasNCAA0.39
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA0.38
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA0.35
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA0.36
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA0.33
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA0.31
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA0.29
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA0.26
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA0.25
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA0.16
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA0.16

This stat examines how heavily a player relied on the 3-ball to score points, which is a good indicator of the role these prospects played last season, but is an indirect gauge of how well each of them got to the rim as well. Players from whom a large proportion of their shots come from beyond the arc may have some deficiencies in terms of size, ball-handling ability, athleticism, aggressiveness, or shot-selection. Or they simply could be outstanding shooters. Every player should be judged individually in this regard.

Antoine Diot ranks highly here, part because he took a lot of deep threes in the slower-paced European game despite not being a big time scorer, and part because he simply didn't take that many shots on the whole. Shelvin Mack and Ben Hansbrough move up a bit here. Both players showed a killer instinct and the ability to take what defenders gave them, but Hansbrough's shot attempts were limited to a small degree by the talent around him compared to some other players on this list, and Mack did an exceptional job doing his damage within the framework of Brad Stevens's system.

Nolan Smith and Kemba Walker rank fairly low on this list. Smith used his quickness well to get to the rim, while Walker's midrange shooting skews his shot attempts inside the arc despite their range. Most of the top prospects rank in the middle of the pack, with Josh Selby ranking a bit higher than the other players projected to go in the first round. An isolation match-up nightmare, Selby attempts some tough shots, but is incredibly explosive off the dribble. He'll need to hone both his inside and outside game to maximize his value at the next level.

The bottom of our list looks essentially the same as the one above with Brad Wanamaker and Darius Morris ranking among the least assertive three point shooters along with Julyan Stone. Morris was a much more efficient finisher and midrange shooter than he was a spot-up shooter from range last season, and the development of that part of his game is among the more intriguing aspects of his skill set to keep an eye on long-term.

Free Throw Attempts Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA8.9
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA8.5
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA8.3
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA8.2
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA7.9
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA7.3
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA7
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA7
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA6.8
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA6.3
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA6.3
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA5.3
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA5.2
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA5.2
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA5.1
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA4.9
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA4.5
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA4.2
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA4.1
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP3.9
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH3.1
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA2.7
Cory JosephTexasNCAA2.5
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA2.5

Free throws attempted per-40 minutes is a good statistic to measure the aggressiveness of a player getting to the rim, as well as his athleticism and ball-handling skills. In some ways, it provides an inverse look at the three-point stats we just looked at.

Projected first overall pick Kyrie Irving heads up this group and almost eclipses the 9 free-throw attempt per-40 minute mark. Though he is not a freak athlete, Irving showed in his brief stint with the Blue Devils that he has an advanced feel for getting into the paint and turning the corner for a player his age.

Among the other top players in this category, we find a pretty unique distribution of physical profiles. Norris Cole has one of the more impressive blends of strength and quickness in this year's crop of guards, Jimmer Fredette is among the strongest, and Kemba Walker is arguably the fastest with the ball in his hands. Jacob Pullen is better known for his jump shot than his slashing ability, but he drew fouls at an absolutely terrific rate last season. It will be interesting to watch how each of those players translates with ability to turn the corner and get to the line to the NBA level.

We find Brandon Knight closer to the bottom of our list, which comes as no surprise considering his perimeter-oriented scoring arsenal. His first step is solid, but he'd sooner pull up for a midrange shot than take the ball to the rim. Cory Joseph and Andrew Goudelock rank fairly low because of their propensity for jump shooting as well. The biggest surprise near the bottom of our list is Josh Selby, whose athletic ability seems to give him excellent potential in this area. His foot injury last season slowed him a bit, but he's definitely capable of getting to the line at a higher rate than he managed at Kansas.

Diante Garrett has excellent quickness and terrific size for the point guard position, but his slender frame isn't built to mix it up amongst the trees.

Free Throw Attempts Per Possession
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA0.48
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA0.48
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA0.4
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA0.4
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA0.39
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA0.39
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA0.38
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA0.38
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA0.38
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA0.37
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA0.35
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA0.33
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA0.32
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA0.3
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA0.28
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA0.28
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA0.28
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA0.27
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP0.27
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH0.25
Cory JosephTexasNCAA0.21
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA0.18
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA0.17
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA0.14

Even though Free Throws Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted tells us how much a player attacks in bulk, it doesn't show how much they attack relative to their usage rate. This stat tells that story.

For that reason, this table looks similar to the last one, with some significant differences. Kyrie Irving once again takes the top spot alongside the lower-usage Julyan Stone and undersized scorer Jacob Pullen, but Brad Wanamaker jumps up considerably due to how regularly he got to the line in a complementary offensive role for a very balanced Pitt attack. UCLA's Malcolm Lee rises considerably here as well. Jimmer Fredette drops back to the middle of the pack, as do many of the other prolific shooters in this group, due to his heavy perimeter usage relative to how frequently he got to the line.

None of the major prospects make too big of a leap in either direction, indicating that they use a considerable amount of possessions, but aren't carrying their team's offense alone.

True Shooting Percentage
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA71%
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA64%
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA64%
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA62%
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA60%
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA59%
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA58%
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA57%
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA57%
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA57%
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA57%
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA56%
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA56%
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA56%
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA55%
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA55%
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA55%
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA54%
Cory JosephTexasNCAA53%
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA52%
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP51%
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH51%
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA50%
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA49%

True Shooting Percentage is adjusted to account for what a player adds to their efficiency and team's point total with free throw attempts and 3-pointers. A player who makes 4/10 3-pointers obviously contributes the same amount of points as a player who made 6/10 2-pointers—which doesn't show up in the traditional field goal percentage stat. This stat attempts to adjust for that.

Last season, we saw this statistic dominated by the most aggressive three-point shooting guards in the country. This season, we find Kyrie Irving and Charles Jenkins at the top of the heap, with Irving ahead by a considerable margin. Though Irving and Jenkins are competent shooters, the last two metrics we analyzed showed that they are just as good, if not better, at attacking the rim off the bounce. Ben Hansbrough had a spectacular season, and his offensive acumen isn't debatable, though his ability to translate it to the next level may require him to make some adjustments. Reggie Jackson makes an appearance here, and has flown under the radar somewhat despite playing for in the ACC. He is a terrific athlete, but made substantial progress as a set shooter this season.

Jimmer Fredette, Demetri McCamey and Andrew Goudelock are not the quickest players in this year's guard crop, but each scored efficiently thanks to their shooting range. Kemba Waker and Brandon Knight fall near the middle of the pack in this metric, which isn't surprising considering how much shooting both did off the dribble.

Josh Selby and Cory Joseph again find themselves in the bottom five, as does Diante Garrett. Iman Shumpert and Garrett don't benefit from the high usage in big conferences here.

Assists Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA8.2
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA7.4
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA7.1
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA7.1
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA6.2
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA6
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA5.9
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA5.7
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA5.6
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH5.5
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA5.4
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP5.4
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA5.2
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA5
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA4.8
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA4.8
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA4.7
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA4.5
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA4.4
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA4.4
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA4.2
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA4
Cory JosephTexasNCAA3.7
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA2.4

Darius Morris run away as the top playermaker among this year's crop of guards. He had basically unlimited freedom at Michigan, and while he lacks great athleticism, his ability to use his size, distort defenses with his dribble, and find the open man is very similar to Andre Miller's. Demetri McCamey and Isaiah Thomas both improved considerably as passers this season, with Thomas really coming on strong after Abdul Gaddy was lost for the season. Brad Wanamaker is one of the more versatile prospects in this group, and he did a great job making plays from the shooting guard spot next to the undersized Ashton Gibbs. Diante Garrett's quickness didn't manifest itself in his ability to get to the line, but is apparent in his passing ability.

It is interesting to see Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith rank so similarly in this category given how Duke's attack changed with Irving out of the lineup. Though Smith's scoring efficiency dipped, he stepped up his productivity as a scorer and passer with Irving out of the lineup.

Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, and Jimmer Fredette all rank closer to the bottom of this list, mostly because their roles were based in their ability to put the ball in the basket. Considering the success of each team in the tournament, having a prolific scorer as your primary ball-handler has its benefits in the college game. Each will need to make some adjustments at the next level, but have the talent levels to do so.

We find Iman Shumpert and Malcolm Lee near the bottom of our list because they functioned as shooting guards last season and weren't asked to set the table for their teammates as regularly as the other guys in this class.

Turnovers Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP4
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA3.8
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA3.7
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA3.7
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA3.6
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA3.6
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA3.6
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA3.6
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA3.5
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA3.4
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA3.4
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA3.4
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA3.1
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA3.1
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA3
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH2.9
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA2.9
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA2.8
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA2.8
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA2.4
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA2.4
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA2
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA2.0
Cory JosephTexasNCAA1.8

Based on what we saw on the last list, there are a few things that stand out on this one. Josh Selby turned the ball over at a fairly high rate for a player who wasn't doing much passing. Antoine Diot actually takes the top spot though, but deserves a pass considering his struggles came in the EuroLeague. He could still stand to become more adept and attacking with both his hand off the dribble, but his numbers in the French League as much less disconcerting.

Malcolm Lee, Kemba Walker, and Iman Shumpert are among the least turnover prone players on this list along with Julyan Stone. Shumpert and Lee weren't prolific playmakers, and weren't giving the ball up regularly when looking to score. Walker didn't rank highly in the assist rankings, but ranks especially low here given how he carried UConn's offense for stretches.

Though Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith were similarly efficient playmakers, Smith turned the ball over considerably more. Obviously, the ACC took its on his numbers, and it would have been interesting to see where Irving fell on this list with a full season under his belt.

Assist to Turnover Ratio
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA2.83
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA2.28
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA2.26
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA2.16
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA2.08
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA2.05
Cory JosephTexasNCAA2.02
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA1.98
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA1.97
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH1.93
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA1.88
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA1.84
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA1.79
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA1.74
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA1.6
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA1.5
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA1.41
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP1.34
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA1.33
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA1.32
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA1.22
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA1.22
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA1.21
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA1.06

Putting the last two tables together, we see that Darius Morris, Brad Wanamaker, and Julyan Stone rank as the top three most efficient playmakers in this group. Despite handling the ball virtually the entire time he was on the floor at Michigan, Morris managed to turn the ball over at a relatively low level. Apart from Morris, we see a number of seniors at the top of this group, which should come as no surprise. Stone is the surprise, as he played one of the more unique roles in the NCAA.

Cory Joseph and Kemba Walker both rank well here despite playing radically different roles. Joseph hasn't looked great in a number of metrics, but he wasn't asked to do too much, and that shows here.

Near the bottom of our list, we find Brandon Knight, Jimmer Fredette, and Andrew Goudelock. None of those players were looking to pass first, and it shows here. Josh Selby, Jacob Pullen, and Malcolm Lee round out the bottom of our list, but no player in their group posted an assist-to-turnover ratio under one.

Pure Point Rating

Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA4.41
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA4.28
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA3.66
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA2.54
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA3.28
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA3.28
Cory JosephTexasNCAA1.54
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA1.84
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA2.26
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH1.94
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA1.93
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA1.66
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA1.22
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA1.33
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA0.54
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA-0.07
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA-0.54
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP-1.14
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA-1.1
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA-0.18
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA-1.89
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA-1.92
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA-0.99
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA-3.03

Accounting for pace, and the fact that turnovers are statistically a bigger negative than assists are a positive, Jon Hollinger's pure point rating builds on the A/TO ratio that many of us use to gauge the efficiency of points guards.

Somewhat similar to the A/T ratio table, this chart drops down many of the less prolific assist men who were playing mostly of the ball, including Cory Joseph, Josh Selby, and Jimmer Fredette. Morris, Stone, and Wanamaker retain their spots at the top of the heap, though the gap between the two grows significantly.

Like last season, where we saw John Wall fairly low in these rankings, Kyrie Irving and Brandon Knight aren't close to the top-5 here despite their lofty rankings. Irving and Knight are not nearly as athletic as Wall, but are more polished from the perimeter and have radically different games. Despite the stylistic gaps, none of the three posted high PPRs as freshman.

Rebounds Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA8.0
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA7.2
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA7.1
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA6.6
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA5.8
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA5.7
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA5.2
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA5
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA4.9
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH4.9
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP4.8
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA4.7
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA4.5
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA4.5
Cory JosephTexasNCAA4.3
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA4.3
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA4.2
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA4.1
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA4.1
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA3.8
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA3.7
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA3.7
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA3.6
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA3.5

Rebounding is an important aspect of the game, and while some guards are seldom asked to head down into the paint and make a presence in traffic, some players, like Rajon Rondo for example have the length, athleticism, toughness, and timing to get their team extra possessions on a consistent basis. With that said, it's important to recognize that some of this stat is systematic.

Unlike last year where the sub-6'0 Courtney Fortson topped this group, we have a number of big time rebounders from the guard position in this class. Brad Wanamaker simply did a ton of dirty work for Pitt. He's not a glamorous NBA prospect, but his work ethic is going to make his first coach extremely happy. Wanamaker's effort is a big reason he's in the second spot, while Iman Shumpert's athleticism places him in a close third. Julyan Stone's size for his position gives him a decided advantage and the top spot here.

The first real point guard on our list is Norris Cole, whose 20 rebounds against Youngstown State drew national attention. Cole is a self-made player who willed his team to a NIT birth not just with his scoring, but with his overall skill level.

Kemba Walker is a tier below Cole, but rank as the most prolific rebounder among guards projected to be selected in the lottery. Kyrie Irving, Brandon Knight, and Josh Selby all look fairly average here while Charles Jenkins, Jimmer Fredette, Jacob Pullen, and Malcolm Lee bring up the back of the pack. Some of that has to do with their roles defensively, but all of those players will take time to emerge as serviceable roleplayers for their position.

Steals Per-40 Minutes Pace Adjusted
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA3.3
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH3.2
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA2.5
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA2
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA2
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA2
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA1.9
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA1.9
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA1.7
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP1.6
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA1.6
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA1.6
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA1.5
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA1.4
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA1.4
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA1.4
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA1.3
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA1.3
Cory JosephTexasNCAA1.2
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA1.2
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA1
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA1
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA0.8
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA0.7

A point guard's ability to apply ball pressure and get in the passing lanes often helps his team quicken the pace of the game without forcing the issue. Though there's a million ways to create a turnover, this stat paints a broad picture of what a prospect brings to the table both physically in terms of quickness and length and mentally in terms of intensity and anticipation.

It isn't too surprising to see Shumpert at the top of this list. Just like on our rebounding list, Shumpert's physical tools were hugely advantageous at the college level. Antoine Diot lands in second, using his size and length to disrupt the passing lanes in the French League. Norris Cole grabs the third spot, followed by a roleplayer and two of the top 2011 guard prospects in Brad Wanamaker, Kemba Walker, and Kyrie Irving. The differences in athleticism in those three players show that physical tools are not everything on the defensive end.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Brandon Knight and Malcolm Lee forced very few turnovers last season. Despite their length and size for their position at the college level, they did not eclipse 1 steal per-40 minute pace adjusted. They are joined in the bottom-5 by Andrew Goudelock, Shlevin Mack, and Demetri McCamey, none of whom share their physical gifts.

Blocks Per-40 Pace Adjusted
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA0.8
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA0.7
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA0.6
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA0.6
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH0.5
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA0.5
Cory JosephTexasNCAA0.4
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA0.3
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA0.2
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA0.2
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA0.2
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA0.2
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA0.2
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA0.2
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA0.2
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA0.1
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP0.1
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA0.1
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA0.1
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA0.1
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA0.1
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA0.1
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA0
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA0

This is yet another stat that can provide some insight into the physical traits that these shooting guards use defensively.

Though he's not a freak athlete, Kyrie Irving heads up our group of guards here, followed by Charles Jenkins, Reggie Jackson, and Antoine Diot. Brad Wanamaker makes another appearance in the top-5, which is as much a testament to Pitt's system as his work ethic as his ability to actually block shots. For the most part, we don't see any stand outs on this list, which shouldn't come as a surprise. Two of the less explosive leapers in this group, Jimmer Fredette and Darius Morris bring up the back of the pack.

Team Possesions
NameTeamLeagueTm Pos/g
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP73.1
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA72.4
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA71.8
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH71.7
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA71.6
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA70.1
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA70.1
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA69.9
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA69.7
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA68.7
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA68.5
Cory JosephTexasNCAA68.2
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA67.6
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA67.5
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA66.5
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA66.3
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA66.2
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA66.1
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA65.5
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA65.3
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA65.1
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA64.2
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA63.5
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA62.5

Unlike last season when we saw a NBADL take this category by a simply ridiculous 26 possession margin, the teams this group of guards played for are all played within 11 possessions of one another. Le Mans played in the EuroLeague two years ago, and as their most prominent young player Antoine Diot has been at the reigns of a talented offense for a few years now. Washington, BYU, and Duke round out to the teams pushing the tempo past 70 possessions per-game.

Near the bottom of our list, we find Michigan and Pittsburgh, both of whom are known for slowing it down and executing. Interestingly, every west coast team on our list is above the median here. It isinteresting to see Kentucky and UConn closer to the bottom of our list while some of the other top teams in 2011 NCAA Tournament land closer to Le Mans than Michigan.

Player Efficiency Rating
Kyrie IrvingDukeNCAA32.5
Charles JenkinsHofstraNCAA31
Jimmer FredetteBrigham YoungNCAA30.5
Norris ColeCleveland StateNCAA30
Kemba WalkerConnecticutNCAA29.4
Reggie JacksonBoston CollegeNCAA26.9
Andrew GoudelockCharlestonNCAA26.7
Nolan SmithDukeNCAA25.6
Iman ShumpertGeorgia TechNCAA25.3
Ben HansbroughNotre DameNCAA24.4
Jacob PullenKansas StateNCAA24.1
Isaiah ThomasWashingtonNCAA22.6
Brad WanamakerPittsburghNCAA22.6
Darius MorrisMichiganNCAA22.5
Shelvin MackButlerNCAA20.7
Demetri McCameyIllinoisNCAA20.6
Brandon KnightKentuckyNCAA19.2
Diante GarrettIowa StateNCAA18.4
Julyan StoneUTEPNCAA17.2
Antoine DiotLe MansFRENCH15.5
Cory JosephTexasNCAA15.1
Malcolm LeeUCLANCAA15.1
Josh SelbyKansasNCAA11.9
Antoine DiotLe MansEUROCUP11.6

Another one of John Hollinger's gems, PER is a total measure of what a player does on the floor based on more than a dozen weighted calculations. It isn't wise to compare players across different leagues, though, since an average score of 15 (the median) would be a totally different figure in another league, with its own averages. The NCAA is especially tricky considering the varying levels of competition we find in the different conferences.

Kyrie Irving has the highest PER on our list, which is notable given his lofty draft stock. Seldom do we see potential top draft picks rank highly in this metric, whether that's because they are being picked on potential or because there's another outrageously efficient players at a small school. Irvings rank here is intruiging to say the least, as if speaks to what he meant to the Blue Devils. It would have been interesting to see if his PER would have held through as Duke moved through ACC play.

Charles Jenkins, Jimmer Fredette, and Norris Cole were arguably the most valuable players to their teams in mid major basketball last season, so it is unsurprising that their heroics land them near the top of this list. There is a considerable drop off after Kemba Walker.

Iman Shumpert and Nolan Smith solidify the middle of the pack, but among players projected to be selected in the first round, Brandon Knight and Josh Selby bring up the back of the pack. It is interesting to see the spread among freshman in this list.

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